Why the lawsuit against Man City means they face incredibly strange relegation chances
Manchester City has won the Premier League four times in a row and is unbeaten after seven games this season.
But according to the bookmakers, they are more likely to be relegated than Brighton & Hove Albion, Fulham and West Ham United.
City are at 12/1 to be relegated this season, while Arsenal and Liverpool, their two most prominent domestic rivals, will have to pay a price of 2,000/1 to progress to the Championship.
This has nothing to do with their back-to-back draws against Arsenal and Newcastle United, nor does it have to do with Rodri being out for the season due to an anterior cruciate ligament injury he suffered against Arsenal in September.
There is no correlation between what they produce on the pitch and the possibility of them playing in the English Football League next year.
Betting firms have shifted their bets due to City’s legal dispute with the Premier League – over the more than 100 charges against the club – and the prospect of a significant points deduction if found guilty.
“From an industry perspective, the usual way to determine your relegation odds is to take the title odds and turn them the other way,” explains Alan Alger, a betting consultant. “This is the first time this has not happened.
“It is unprecedented that you get a very short prize for the title and then also a relatively short prize for relegation. That can only be because the threat of relegation exists due to a relegation sanction or because of a large enough points deduction that puts them in the mix for relegation.”
What’s the latest on Manchester City’s 115 charges?
The hearing that will decide whether City broke Premier League financial rules started on September 16 and will take place in London.
It took more than 18 months to reach this stage, with the Premier League announcing the charges in February 2023. The hearing is expected to last approximately two and a half months.
The club is accused of multiple alleged violations of a financial nature, including allegations that they injected revenue by inflating sponsorship deals, while also concealing certain costs by failing to declare certain salaries and image rights payments.
The charges range from failing to provide accurate financial information, breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules, failing to cooperate with Premier League investigations, failing to provide accurate details of player and manager payments and failing comply with UEFA FFP rules.
When a verdict is handed down, City and the Premier League can appeal if they are unhappy with the decision. City have maintained their innocence and strongly deny all allegations.
How does this affect their chances of relegation?
Normally, Manchester City, like Liverpool and Arsenal, would have to pay a price of 2,000/1 to be relegated. This is a general price that clearly makes bookmakers think there is no chance of this happening.
But in May the market changed and serious consideration had to be given to the likelihood of City receiving a points deduction that could lead to relegation.
“We were the first in the industry to put a price on Manchester City,” explains Bet365’s Steve Freeth. “We discussed whether to offer a price because it is clear that the liabilities of 2,000/1 would be astronomical.
“It was a matter of putting a few heads together, putting our fingers in the air and saying, ‘What’s going to happen to Manchester City and how do we see it?’ because it’s so extreme.
“The price we settled on was 33/1 because you don’t know if they’re going to get nothing at all or deduct 100 points. We went to market on May 19 at 33/1 and there has been a steady flow of business since then.”
Manchester City vs the Premier League
Are people placing bets on City being relegated?
Yes, that’s why their odds have been reduced from 33/1 to 12/1.
“The kind of people who support it are the regular punters on the street, who place bets of £1, £5 and £10,” says Freeth. “These are the types of bets we make.
“We place quite a large proportion of these bets, which is why the price has dropped from 33/1 to 12/1 in those months.”
Freeth noted that Bet365 has “built the liabilities into seven figures”, meaning that if City are relegated this season, their payout to customers will total more than £1 million.
“We have to protect ourselves because it is such a volatile situation and that is why we have not offered 2,000/1,” Freeth added. “Manchester City could win their next ten games, but the price of 12/1 wouldn’t change much. It’s not about results on the field, it’s about results in the courtroom.”
“It is purely a matter of bookmakers protecting themselves against the chance of a large points deduction that will put them in the relegation market,” says Alger. “And in a market with such a high percentage in terms of bookmaker profits, because you have 20 teams and three winners, you can overload the percentage and there is no upside in going 500/1 for Manchester City.
“But the fact that you can go 12/1 and only take a small part of the margin out of your overall market, there is no benefit to going above those prices because you don’t get any prices for that. As the season progresses you will continue to see them at a false price for relegation in terms of the likelihood of this happening.
Have lawsuits affected sports betting markets before?
Everton and Nottingham Forest received points deductions last season, which has helped inform bookmakers about court pricing and potential penalties for relegation odds.
However, the cases involving Everton and Nottingham Forest pale in comparison to what the Premier League has said to City.
“Sometimes you can get a little push, but there is so little information about the City case,” Freeth explains. “Last season there was a signal that Everton would get some form of deduction, so that wasn’t too difficult to model. We didn’t think Everton would get more than 10 points, just like Nottingham Forest.
“But like everyone else, we have no idea (about Manchester City). That made us better prepared last season, but we have to remain vigilant and manage accordingly.”
Has a potential points deduction affected City’s chances of winning a fifth straight title?
Pep Guardiola’s side are no longer favorites to win the Premier League, with Arsenal seen by bookmakers as the most likely club to finish the season on top.
“The difference between being 4/7 favorites and then 8/11 favorites at the start of the season seems minimal, but the percentage difference is about the same as the difference between 12/1 and 500/1 for relegation,” says Alger.
And according to Freeth, people are still backing City to win the league, with the market recently affected by Rodri’s season-ending injury and Kevin De Bruyne missing the last three games through injury.
(Top photo: Matt McNulty/Getty Images)