Bill Belichick will leave his mark on the NFL during the 2024 season.
The legendary coach is out of the league for the first time in 50 years, but he will be a ghostly presence in many buildings, especially at franchises where coaches are now under immense pressure to win.
Whether Belichick will actually land another coaching job remains to be seen. Still, there’s no doubt that his free-agent status will be one of the most talked-about topics around the league this season. In fact, it’s already been a prominent topic at several facilities.
You can understand why. This is a completely unprecedented situation. There has never been a six-time Super Bowl champion head coach on standby — albeit with a heavy media schedule — to sort through the inevitable wave of vacancies that come January.
Call it the Belichick cloud.
“That will certainly be a much bigger cloud than we’ve seen in a long time,” said a senior team leader, who, like other sources in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity so he could speak candidly.
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The Dallas Cowboys are the obvious connection. Mike McCarthy, whose contract expires, has 36 regular-season wins and just one playoff triumph in the past three years, so the Cowboys may have to push deep into January to keep McCarthy’s job.
And even then, would it be enough? The Cowboys still have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, and owner Jerry Jones isn’t afraid to go on a star hunt. If Jones believes Belichick would give his ready-made contender the best chance to end a three-decade Super Bowl drought, it could be a perfect fit for both sides.
“Nothing (the Cowboys) could do would surprise me,” said an assistant coach for another team.
Belichick, who turns 73 in April, has short-term goals of his own. He has 333 career wins, including the playoffs, and needs 15 more to pass Don Shula for the all-time record. Belichick’s legacy is secure without reaching that milestone, but he wants to get there anyway.
Therefore, a team that needs a roster rebuild wouldn’t make sense, either personally or organizationally. So while Belichick will forever be tied to the New York Giants, whom he helped lead to two Super Bowls as defensive coordinator, they’re still in the midst of a massive rebuild in the third year of the Joe Schoen-Brian Daboll ticket.
Other teams that might fit a more suitable criteria are the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles. While the Bills have won five straight regular-season games by double digits for the first time in franchise history, they have yet to cross the playoff threshold. If Sean McDermott can’t break that trend, would ownership consider trying Belichick?
Nick Sirianni has also been on the receiving end of a lot of criticism in Philly. When the Eagles practiced in Foxboro this month, a fan yelled at Sirianni that Belichick would take his job next year, so he’s already aware of the noise.
Patriots fan just yelled at Nick Sirianni
“Hey Sirianni, Bill is taking your job next year”
It’s going to be an intensive training today
— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) August 13, 2024
“(It’s) definitely a distraction,” said another assistant coach, “especially when the coaching staff is on an expiring contract. (It’s) important to start off well, I think.”
There is, however, one important element to the game that also cannot be overlooked. There were seven coaching vacancies last offseason, not including the New England Patriots, and Belichick was still without a job.
The Athletics reported in February that three key factors played a role: Belichick’s mishandling of the Patriots’ quarterback situation, including the events leading up to Tom Brady’s departure in 2020 and the failure to develop Mac Jones, Belichick’s desire to maintain complete control over football operations, and concerns over his inability to connect with a younger generation of players.
The same concern still exists.
“If the model is the New England model, you’re blowing up the operation as you know it,” one personnel executive said. “If you do that with a 73-year-old head coach, you’re blowing up your personnel operation and starting over with a head coach who might only be there three years. There would be a lot of questions.
“It has to be an owner who is in a situation where he has to win now, because it is not a future appointment. It is not focused on the future. It is focused on the present. And what do you do for two years? How do you sustain success?”
Another executive simply asked, “Do you really think Jerry and Stephen (Jones) are going to give personnel control to (Belichick)?”
It’s certainly conceivable that the year will be gone, which would soften Belichick’s stance on retaining control of the roster, especially if the alternative means coaching his last game. Jerry Jones has long since established that he will remain the Cowboys’ general manager, and his vision shared with Stephen Jones and Will McClay has produced a premium roster.
Like the Eagles, Howie Roseman is widely regarded as one of the best general managers in the NFL. Even if owner Jeffrey Lurie ultimately approves a coaching change, it would be a bit of a surprise if he were to relieve Roseman of his responsibilities.
The Bills are in a unique position in that regard. GM Brandon Beane and McDermott have worked together since 2011, when they were with the Carolina Panthers. If owner Terry Pegula determines that Belichick is the better option after the season, would Pegula view Beane and McDermott as a package deal, or would he force Beane and Belichick to make serious adjustments and figure it out?
It’s also fair to remain concerned about Belichick’s delivery. His old-school, hard-nosed approach with players has become an anomaly in the modern landscape, as players have come to appreciate coaches who empower the locker room. While older generations of coaches, players, or fans may roll their eyes at that notion, it doesn’t change the truth. Those who refused to conform have had a shorter shelf life in their roles.
Regardless, these questions will continue to fuel the conversation, fueling speculation in various buildings. A strong start will be necessary to stem the tide of debate in places like Dallas, Philly, and even Buffalo, where the debate has already begun, whether as whispers or otherwise. But as history has shown, a few presumed Super Bowl contenders will limp or fall by the wayside, leading to a new group of potential Belichick suitors.
“The teams that struggle in the first two months and have high expectations, you’re going to feel that pressure regardless of whether it’s Belichick hanging over your head or someone else,” one executive said.
But when speculation about sports talk seeps into the organization, for example during press conferences or in conversations between coaches or executives wondering about their future, tensions can increase in certain organizations.
“I think it can become annoying and distracting if it’s constantly being asked about and brought up,” one supervisor said.
Belichick won’t be hard to find this season. He has several media roles lined up, so he’ll certainly hear questions about the matter. He may dodge them to avoid putting a former colleague in an awkward position, but it won’t take much to get in the news.
And that cloud in the shape of a hoodie continues to hang over our heads.
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(Photo illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletics; pphotos by Bill Belichick, Nick Sirianni and Mike McCarthy: Cooper Neill, Mitchell Leff and Adam Bettcher)
