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This is a season about hope.
For most of college football’s existence, much of the sport had no chance of competing for a national title. Somehow, those odds increased when the four-team College Football Playoff was born.
Expanding that field to the new 12-team version changes the often-frustrating calculus that left deserving teams like Florida State last season, Texas A&M in 2020, UCF in 2017 and Baylor and TCU in 2014 cursing college football from crowning a champion.
Nowadays, any team that starts the season can pursue its dream: if you win every game, there is a good chance, if not a certainty, that a team’s chances for the national title will be decided on the field, and not in a conference room by thirteen people or a dozen computers.
Remember: The Group of 5 now has a guaranteed spot in the field for the highest-seeded conference champion, and can move up to one of the top four spots if the G5 representative finishes higher in the polls than a Power 4 champion.
This is Bubble Watch, a new weekly check-in that captures the ebb and flow of that hope. Which teams are having seasons that could land them in the playoffs, but could just as easily go the other way?
Each week, we’ll take a close look at Saturday’s biggest mover and take a snapshot of the teams on the bubble. For almost every team, one loss can change their fortunes in an instant. For some teams, one big win can completely change their outlook.
I never expected to experience something like this in my lifetime, so I don’t want to forget how much has changed as we enter a season unlike any other.
The AthleticsAustin Mock created a model to project the starting field.
The Athletic’s expected field of 12 teams
The top four seeded players will advance to the highest-ranked conference champions, with a fifth conference champion also entering the pool.
First five out: Kansas State, Michigan, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma
In Week 1, we begin with a look at the teams that our odds and analysis see as entering the bubble zone but have a growing hope of reaching the Playoff. And which elite programs could have a new path back to the top?
The probability of each team taking the field is included in the only Bubble Watch of the season, which is executed when only a small portion of the teams take the field.
New Hope
These teams have never qualified for a Playoff and would find it an uphill battle to do so, but now their chances are better than ever.
Old lady
The Rebels, who field one of the program’s best rosters ever, haven’t opened a season ranked that high in the AP Poll (No. 6) since 1970. In a four-team playoff, it would be tough to see them finish, as coach Lane Kiffin has only once come within 14 points of either Alabama or Georgia. That’s not the case anymore. How many SEC (and Big Ten) teams make the field will be a talking point this fall.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 48 percent
Kyle Whittingham famously led Utah to an undefeated season in 2008, finishing No. 2 in the AP poll behind Florida after beating Nick Saban and Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. They’ll never have to worry about that again. Frequent injuries marred last season, but the Utes are the favorites in their new league, the Big 12.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 46 percent
Kansas State
In the new Big 12 without Texas or Oklahoma, reaching the playoffs with four teams would be a tall order in most seasons. But K-State should benefit in this iteration. The Wildcats have finished in the top 10 six times under Bill Snyder. Chris Klieman has built a solid foundation, and new starting quarterback Avery Johnson has shown he can lead the Wildcats to a Big 12 title or even an at-large berth.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 41 percent
After the latest round of realignment, Boise State is the clear best program outside of the Power 4 conferences and Notre Dame. The Broncos have gone undefeated twice since 2006. They didn’t play for a title in either season. This year, they travel to Oregon and play Pac-12 holdouts Washington State and Oregon State. Spencer Danielson took over midseason last year and led Boise to its first Mountain West title since 2019. Boise doesn’t have to go undefeated and pray for 100 other things to go their way.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 32 percent
Eli Drinkwitz is building a new-caliber recruiting class at Mizzou and should benefit from a favorable schedule this season. The Tigers were one game away from the BCS title game after losing to Oklahoma in the 2007 Big 12 title game. Missouri likely would have made a 12-team playoff field as an SEC member in 2013 and 2023, but now it’s real.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 31 percent
Texas A&M
Is Mike Elko the coach who can finally get Texas A&M playing at a high level? Kevin Sumlin showed flashes in 2012, as the Aggies finished the season as one of the best teams in America. Jimbo Fisher sniffed a playoff spot in 2020 but just missed out. Much has been made of what A&M lost in the portal, but it added Purdue edge rusher Nic Scourton and returned much of its offensive core. K-State legend Collin Klein, one of the fastest rising coaches in the sport, left his alma mater to join the Aggies as offensive coordinator.
Percentage that makes the Playoff: 26 percent
The Hokies played for a national title in 1999, losing to … Florida State, with whom they now share a conference. A Big East-ACC national title game feels like an alternate universe, partly because Big East football no longer exists. But the Hokies making the playoffs under Brent Pry is a real possibility in a wide-open ACC, thanks to an offense that came out red-hot late last season and returns all 11 starters, paired with an experienced defense. Virginia Tech has never reached a New Year’s Six bowl and hasn’t played in a major bowl game since Frank Beamer won the Sugar Bowl in 2011, snapping a streak of four BCS bowls in five seasons.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 23 percent
Liberty joined the FBS in 2018 and went 13-0 last year before Oregon crushed the Flames in the Fiesta Bowl, raising questions about their spot in the New Year’s Six for American champion SMU. Either way, money talks, and Liberty has plenty of it. Their resources far exceed those of their Conference USA counterparts, and the Flames will likely be in that conversation on an almost annual basis.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 23 percent
The Cowboys came within a whisker of the BCS title game in 2011, but fell to Iowa State. Like K-State, they had a tough time making the four-team playoff in the new Big 12. But this year, with one of the nation’s best running backs in Ollie Gordon II, the Cowboys’ fortunes have improved immediately.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 22 percent
Memphis reached the Cotton Bowl in 2019, but the Tigers have never been a serious contender in the national title conversation despite four different coaches leading the program to double-digit points since the playoff’s inception. As the program expands, Memphis may be one of the biggest beneficiaries, fueled by a veteran offense led by four-year starter Seth Henigan at quarterback and Roc Taylor at receiver.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 12 percent
A new season of hope
These programs have spent time as the class of the sport. Each has a shot at making the Playoff. But it can also quickly spiral out of control.
The Tigers’ 2019 national championship team has a case to make as the greatest team in the history of the sport. Coach Brian Kelly left Notre Dame to win a national title. He helped Jayden Daniels win the Heisman, but a disastrous defense destroyed any promise from last season. The Tigers would have (likely) narrowly missed a 12-team field in Kelly’s first two seasons. He has new coordinators this year in Joe Sloan and Blake Baker, as well as a new QB in Garrett Nussmeier.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 59 percent
Few coaches in history have taken over with more money in their pockets than Sherrone Moore, whose work keeping Michigan on track for last season’s national title during Jim Harbaugh’s season-ending suspension earned him the job after Harbaugh walked away. Moore will get a pat on the back (and maybe an extension) for proving he can stick it out for a full season, but this is still a championship-minded program.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 37 percent
Dabo Swinney is a two-time national champion. He also lost the same number of ACC games (4) last season as he did from 2017-2022. QB Cade Klubnik shows potential but has shown little more than flashes. Will coordinator Garrett Riley’s offense improve in Year 2? Just making the playoffs would alleviate concerns about the program’s trajectory. Earning a bye as ACC champion would be better. After Florida State stumbled in Ireland, no team’s playoff fortunes improved by sitting at home on Saturday.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 36 percent
Oklahoma
The Sooners are 0-4 all-time in playoff games and haven’t won a major bowl game since 2020. In Norman, that stretch feels like a century. Reaching the SEC’s Year 1 Playoff would go a long way toward solidifying Brent Venables as a rookie head coach who’s rebounded from a rocky start. Since 2000, Oklahoma has fallen short of 10 wins just four times (not including the pandemic-shortened 2020 season). Venables is already responsible for one of those, as well as Oklahoma’s first losing season since 1998. There’s pressure in Norman, and a lot of it rests on the shoulders of new QB Jackson Arnold.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 25 percent
Is it now or never for Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes? Cam Ward and Damien Martinez left Pac-12 scraps behind to chase a playoff spot with a once-proud program that hasn’t won its conference since 2003 and has won 10 games just once since then. If Cristobal can get them there, it will alleviate much of the criticism of his game-management and his teams’ tendency to underperform.
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 21 percent
Has the bubble burst yet?
State of Florida
Nothing erodes a coach’s capital faster than flopping with the entire sport watching, as Mike Norvell’s team did Saturday in Ireland. Last year’s 13-0 campaign feels like a distant memory after Georgia Tech outplayed ACC favorite FSU on the lines of scrimmage. FSU’s odds to lose were 54 percent. So what?
Percentage to reach the Playoff: 20 percent
GALLING DEEPER
The 12-team playoff era began with a contender losing. What does that mean this early in the season?
(Photo of Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
