WNBA Playoff Forecast: How Far Will Caitlin Clark and Indiana Fever Go?
In the grand scheme of the 2024 season, the identity of the eighth seed in the WNBA postseason bracket is relatively unimportant. The New York Liberty have essentially been the best team in the league all year. Their net rating of plus-12.1 points per 100 possessions is more than 15 points better than any of the three teams vying for the final playoff spot, and a three-game series should make short work of the title contenders.
But the ultimate outcome shouldn’t overshadow the fun of the process, and the small miracle it would be for the Washington Mystics to make that final push. As a reminder, the Mystics lost 12 straight games to start the year. The 2015 Los Angeles Sparks currently hold the WNBA record for longest opening losing streak (0-7) before making the playoffs. Seven games accounted for 20 percent of that 34-game 2015 season, but Washington shattered that record by going 0-fer for 30 percent of this year’s series, but has recovered to sit in the No. 8 seed with two games remaining.
The Mystics survived injuries to Brittney Sykes, Karlie Samuelson and Shakira Austin while trading Myisha-Hines Allen . That simply meant more playmaking duties for Ariel Atkins, who has a career-high assist percentage; more offense from Stefanie Dolson, now the league’s second-leading 3-point shooter; and true rotation minutes from Emily Engstler and Sika Koné, both of whom are already third-team picks in their young WNBA careers. Somehow, it’s come together in a season that combines player development with a postseason chase, one that will result in at least one lottery pick whether they make the playoffs or not thanks to a killer trade from the 2023 WNBA Draft.
The race between the Mystics, Sky and Dream will likely last until the final day of the season (Thursday), and it has offered a two-week preview of a postseason that always seems to fly by. For now, Washington lands in the projected field of eight. In lieu of rankings this week, here’s how I predict the playoffs will unfold, as well as some information to keep in mind for each playoff team with the postseason just two games away.
Expected Champion: Minnesota Lynx
1. Freedom of New York
Taking the favorite status away from the two-time reigning champion Las Vegas Aces is a tall order, but that’s what the Liberty have done during a dominant regular season. Three players have posted All-WNBA-worthy seasons for New York, and the depth of the perimeter far exceeds what the Liberty was operating with in 2023. But heading into the postseason, it’s hard to overlook Sabrina Ionescu’s recent slump. The fifth-year guard is averaging 17.4 points and six assists since the Olympic break but is shooting 35 percent from the field and 29 percent from 3-point range. New York hasn’t seen a significant dropoff despite Ionescu’s struggles, posting a 12.6 net rating during that span while remaining in pole position for the top playoff favorite. However, the Liberty will need a better version of Ionescu against the league’s top teams. They lost to Connecticut and recently to Minnesota, with their lead guard making 3 of 13 and 4 of 21 shots, respectively.
2. Minnesota Lynx
The best team in the second half of the season is on track to set a record for assist percentage. The Lynx have assisted on 76.6 percent of their field goals this season, a testament to their newfound style of play that features quick, precise ball movement that keeps the defense in rotation. Minnesota has five players making at least 40 percent of their 3-point field goal attempts, including the recently acquired Hines-Allen, as the Lynx consistently turn down good shots for great ones to take advantage of the open opportunities created by the extra pass. Opponents have yet to crack the Lynx’ egalitarian offense, and they’re running out of time.
BIG SHOT BRIDGET. photo.twitter.com/gacXonfeh6
— Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) September 15, 2024
3. Connecticut Sun
The Marina Mabrey era in Connecticut has to be considered a success thus far. When the Sun traded Mabrey, the general assumption was that she would inject some more perimeter shot creation into Connecticut’s offense. But rather than disrupt the starting lineup, the Sun have mixed and matched Mabrey, figuring out who’s cooking on any given night for the first three quarters while generally giving Mabrey the keys in the fourth quarter to close out. She’s second on the team in fourth-quarter minutes since her arrival (behind Alyssa Thomas) and first in fourth-quarter points. Connecticut is 19.6 points per 100 possessions better with Mabrey on the court since the trade, and she’s hit 42 percent of her triples in a Sun uniform. While Connecticut hasn’t moved up in the standings, the Sun are 9-1 against the other teams on their side of the playoff bracket, putting them in a strong position to advance to a sixth straight trip to the WNBA semifinals.
4. Las Vegas Aces
A’ja Wilson is two rebounds removed from the most prolific scoring and rebounding seasons in WNBA history in the same year. As a result, the Aces will have the best player on the court in every playoff game they play in this season, no matter how long that postseason run is for the reigning champions. After squandering Wilson’s 42-point effort against Dallas, Las Vegas has won the last seven games the two-time MVP has played in, including four straight against Connecticut and Indiana. The Aces have won in blowout fashion, held their own in clutch situations and staged double-digit comebacks in the process. Las Vegas’ overall record still doesn’t scream championship contender, but it’s tough to bet against a team with this historic track record, especially when Wilson is the ultimate trump card in every game.
Skylar Diggins-Smith has been a powerhouse over the past month, averaging 18.9 points and 6.2 assists while making 46 percent of her shots. Perhaps more importantly, she’s been Seattle’s closer of late. She had nine points in the fourth quarter in a win at Los Angeles on Wednesday, then made the game-winning free throws at Dallas on Friday before delivering the game-saving steal with Seattle up one possession against the Sparks on Sunday. Diggins-Smith hasn’t played in the postseason since 2021, when she helped Phoenix make a surprising run to the Finals. After that loss, Diggins-Smith sounded effusive about all the lessons she’s learned in preparation and mindset, and this is her first chance to apply them (against the last team she beat in the playoffs, by the way: the Aces).
6. Indiana Fever
The Fever seemed to hit a metaphorical ceiling this week, failing to beat Las Vegas in two tries and suffering a season-ending upset against the champs. But Indiana won’t see the Aces until a potential Finals series, and even including those two games, the Fever still have the league’s best offense in the past month. They’re shooting a combined 40 percent from 3-point range on a league-leading percentage of attempts, making for an intriguing first-round matchup with either Minnesota or Connecticut, the league’s top two 3-point defenses.
GALLING DEEPER
From a shaky start to playoff chances: How Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever revived their season
7. Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury aren’t exactly rocketing into the postseason, having won three of their last 10 games, and Kahleah Copper is currently out with a back problem. With Bec Allen also out since the Olympics, it’s tough to judge this version of Phoenix. At this point, the Mercury will have to hope they can avoid Connecticut for as long as possible, as no team has fared worse against the Sun. They’ve lost their four matchups by an average of 20 points and shot a historically poor 1-of-27 from 3-point range in the first of those losses. Phoenix didn’t fare much better against Minnesota, but a 1-3 regular-season record offers more hope than a matchup with Connecticut.
8. Washington Mystics
The Mystics have the third-best defense in the league since the Olympic break, and perhaps the most surprising element of their success is how much younger players have contributed to that defensive effort. Emily Engstler was cut from two teams before arriving in Washington, but the Mystics’ defense is 7 points per 100 possessions better with her on the court, as evidenced by a game-saving block against Atlanta on Friday. Kone played 244 minutes in two seasons before arriving in Washington, but she has been an instant boost with the Mystics. Who would have ever imagined an Engstler-to-Kone drive-and-dish after the Hines-Allen trade (and not during garbage time)?
BIG TIME BLOCK by Emily Engstler 😤
WAS – ATL | ION 📺 photo.twitter.com/CT5gmvjcbQ
— WNBA (@WNBA) September 14, 2024
Washington may not have the top-tier talent of some of the teams headed to the playoffs, but the Mystics certainly have the element of surprise. There’s not a lot of tape on the players fueling Washington’s second-half surge.
(Photo by Caitlin Clark: Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)
