WNBA Rankings: New York Liberty, Minnesota Lynx Battle for Top Playoff Spot
Three-quarters of the way through the WNBA season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. One of the most interesting fault lines will be between fourth and fifth in the standings, as teams battle for home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
The New York Liberty have a clear path to the top overall seed. While they won’t consider it an accomplishment, it does mean something to enter the playoffs with the best record. In the past seven seasons, only one team has won the WNBA title (No. 5 seed Chicago Sky in 2021) without being tied for or holding the record for the best in the league. The Liberty hold a two-game lead over Connecticut and own the tiebreaker, meaning they’d have to lose three more games than the Sun in the last 10 to drop out of first place.
The battle for second place is a little more exciting. Connecticut holds a one-game lead over Minnesota, and also holds the tiebreaker, so the Lynx should beat the Sun by two games. However, they play each other once in this final stretch, so Minnesota has a game to make up. The Lynx also have the second-easiest schedule remaining, with no games against either the Seattle Storm or Las Vegas Aces, and Connecticut has four. Given Minnesota’s recent run, I’d wager the Lynx eclipse the Sun and earn home-field advantage in the second round of the postseason.
two consecutive matches. Same result. photo.twitter.com/XZCkmBeqB5
— Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) August 24, 2024
That brings us to Seattle and Las Vegas in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup. Given the teams’ remaining games, it’s unlikely either team can advance to get out of this pairing. The Phoenix Mercury also have too tough a schedule to leapfrog either of them. Still, both teams will want to be the No. 4 seed to host the first two games of the best-of-three first-round series. The Storm are half a game ahead and have been slightly better statistically, but the Aces are 2-1 in the regular season series. If the Storm wins the final game at home, where they are 11-3, they would pull two ahead of Las Vegas. Likewise, a win would move the Aces even in the standings and give them the tiebreaker. That game is the next-to-last of the regular season and should generate some intrigue.
Neither team is playing well enough to call themselves a threat to New York or Minnesota at this point, but the Storm just added Gabby Williams and Las Vegas have back-to-back Banners to look to for inspiration. Still, the top two teams in this week’s rankings are on a different level and are legitimate title favorites at this point.
Three notable achievements
MV-Phee
In the five games since the Olympic break — when Napheesa Collier, let’s not forget, helped Team USA to a gold medal — the Lynx forward is averaging 25.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.6 steals while connecting on 66.2 percent of his shots. There are a number of reasons the Lynx are undefeated in August, but none are more important than the one-woman wrecking crew that wears the No. 24 seed.
In Wednesday’s win in Las Vegas, Collier was the key defensive assignment against A’ja Wilson, helping to limit the two-time MVP to 15 points — more than 10 below her season average. In Friday’s rematch, the Aces went small in the starting lineup to change up matchups and create more space. Collier paid for that decision by grabbing a career-high 18 rebounds, topping the entire Las Vegas team (17). She became the third player in WNBA history to top her opponent in rebounds. On a back-to-back the following night, she had a season-high 31 points to help secure a playoff spot for Minnesota.
Phee is not ready yet 🔥
Record set last night, repeat tonight ⬇️
31 points
12-18 VGV
5 REBShe’s on a whole other level! #WelcometotheW photo.twitter.com/tSZD49rNr6
— WNBA (@WNBA) August 25, 2024
There’s not much Collier can’t do on the court. She’s the league’s best defensive back, not just as a one-on-one defender, but also with impressive anticipation in help defense. She’s shooting the ball better than she’s ever been as a pro (barring the bubble season, which had some anomalous offensive metrics) and is flowing into what the Lynx need her to do on offense. She can burst inside, bring the ball up herself, run a two-man action with Courtney Williams and pop up from the outside. It’s been a remarkable season for the 27-year-old, and her play of late is reopening what seemed like a closed MVP discussion. Wilson’s numbers are out of this world, but winning matters in those votes, and Collier does that more often.
Signs of life in Atlanta
It’s not just Tina Charles’ scoring; the Atlanta Dream’s entire offensive ecosystem is improving. Atlanta finally paired its top offseason acquisition, Jordin Canada, with its best player, Rhyne Howard, and the results have validated the front office’s plan. When the two share the court, which has happened for 109 minutes in four games, the Dream are outscoring opponents by 11.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s a net rating that’s equal to what the Liberty have done all season.
Individually, Canada has been every bit as advertised after a career year with the Los Angeles Sparks in 2023. She’s making 44.7 percent of her 2-pointers and 31.8 percent of her 3s, which is down slightly from last season but good enough to still command respect as a shooter. She’s fearless in attacking the basket despite her 5-foot-6 frame. Canada has had at least 6 assists in every game but one this season and is tied for third in the W with 2 steals per game, punctuated by 6 takeaways in Atlanta’s win over Connecticut last week.
Jordin Canada has that dog in her 🐕
She takes the hoop and scores over Griner
📲 X photo.twitter.com/yQvC0HyLHg
— WNBA (@WNBA) August 21, 2024
But it’s the team impact that counts for the Dream. With Canada on the court, Atlanta’s true shooting percentage has increased from 49.3 to 52.4, according to PBP Stats. The Dream’s 3-point attempt rate has increased, their live-ball turnover percentage has decreased and their opponent’s shooting quality has declined. Now that they have a true point guard to lead the offense and defend the point of attack, things have gotten cleaned up, putting Atlanta back in position to contend for a playoff spot.
Phoenix’s role players provide a lift
The Mercury have an overwhelming amount of star power with three Team USA Olympians, but it’s been fun to watch their role players fill in the gaps. As coach Nate Tibbetts said after Phoenix’s latest win over Atlanta, “Tash (Cloud) and Soph (Cunningham) really make this group good.”
Cloud has started most games with the power forward assignment defensively, despite playing point guard on the other side, and Cunningham has had to defend nearly every position. Watch this series of plays in the second quarter against the Dream, where she essentially switches possession three times with no box score stats. She digs in on Charles and forces a bad pass to Canada that gets thrown out of bounds. She picks up a loose ball that Charles mishandles and then draws a charge on Allisha Gray. Three defensive plays in different parts of the court, and Phoenix needed every one of them to win by one possession.
And Celeste Taylor continues one of the most interesting rookie odysseys in recent memory. She spent the Olympic break with Phoenix, where she finished a ridiculously long seven-day contract after being cut by the Indiana Fever. The day her contract expired, she signed with Connecticut for seven days, and then the Mercury picked her up as soon as they legally could.
Taylor, a two-time Conference Defensive Player of the Year, has made an immediate impact on Phoenix’s perimeter defense. As Tibbetts said, “She comes in and makes things happen.” Her ability to play the ball has been important for the Mercury, who have stars who attract double and triple teams. Taylor’s biggest highlight of the night came when she made a layup off an incredible pass from Diana Taurasi, but it was the play before that, when she filled the lane to dump off Brittney Griner on a post pass, that showed her value offensively.
Celeste Taylor had a great night in her first game back with the Mercury, scoring 9 points on 80% shooting in just 10 minutes photo.twitter.com/Z7tiCf3Uh8
— WNBA Rookie Watch (@WNBARookieWatch) August 24, 2024
Rookie of the week
Jacy Sheldon, Dallas Wings
Sheldon played primarily off the ball during the first half of the WNBA season, but has been getting consistent point guard minutes since the Olympic break in the endless lead guard roulette in Dallas. She’s the starting point guard alongside four returning starters from last year’s Wings, who advanced to the WNBA semifinals, giving her a better learning opportunity than most rookies. She has 18 assists in the last four games and has been particularly adept at dribble handoffs. It’s an interesting use of her speed, as she’ll dart into the handoff and leave her defender behind the play, clearing the way for her teammate to get a jumper. Those types of plays also come in handy when Arike Ogunbowale is the teammate running to receive the pass.
& that’s on 108 games with 20+ points since 2018 😉 point photo.twitter.com/oWnOTkRJyR
—Dallas Wings (@DallasWings) August 20, 2024
This has been a bit of a lost season for Dallas, but Sheldon’s development has been at least one positive. Even if the Wings aren’t confident about her as a full-time point guard, these reps will help her overall game on the floor.
Game to circle
Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever, Wednesday, 7 p.m. (ET)
After losing three times to the Sun in the first month of the season, a final regular-season meeting with Connecticut will be a good test of how much Caitlin Clark has grown since May. Is she strong enough with the ball to handle the Sun’s aggressive perimeter defense? Has Indiana learned how to move off the ball to make Connecticut pay for Clark’s overload? There was a big gap between these teams on opening night. The standings suggest it’s closed since then, but let’s see how much.
(Photo by Napheesa Collier: Ben Brewer/Getty Images)
