Your next computer may not be an AI PC and may still run Windows 10
- Laptop sales will grow even further next year, but not all of them will be AI PCs, reports say
- Windows 10’s official end of life in 2025 will force many to upgrade
- Companies are not yet seeing the benefit of expensive AI PCs
After a stagnant period, the global laptop market is expected to grow 4.9% to 183 million units by 2025, but that may not be for the reason you think.
Although AI PCs are making headlines, new research shows TrendForce suggests that commercial upgrade cycles and Windows 10’s end-of-life in October 2025 could be the key driving forces.
If the forecasts prove accurate, 2025 would see better growth than 2024, which is on track for a 3.9% annual increase in shipments to 174 million units.
PC upgrades are still powered by Windows 10 EOL
The report claims that high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties have disrupted consumer demand in 2024, but the hope is that reduced political uncertainty following the US presidential election and Federal Reserve rate cuts could spur greater cash flow next year, helping previously reluctant companies about upgrades to take action.
Most prominent is the Windows 10 end-of-life deadline, as the old software is somehow still responsible for three-fifths (61%) of all installations, which is almost double the market share of 36% of Windows 11. Still, the numbers are finally moving in the right direction for Microsoft, after the slow introduction of its AI-packed operating system.
At the other end of the scale, despite industry hype, AI-integrated laptops are not yet a major market driver. Currently they command a 10-15% premium over their non-AI counterparts and offer few discernible upgrades as they are still in their infancy, and companies are failing to see the clear use cases for them.
A study from Intel also recently found that many of those who purchased PCs with AI do not see the benefits due to an initial learning curve.
During the third quarter of this year, Industry Tracker Canalys found that AI PCs were responsible for one in five new shipments; Windows Copilot+ PCs accounted for more than half (53%) of these.
“Despite the positive momentum, there is still a lot of work to be done to convince both channel partners and end customers of the benefits of AI-enabled PCs,” said lead analyst Ishan Dutt, adding how the upcoming Windows 10 transition will lead to potential growth in the market. consumer and business sector.
