Why I Can’t Bet Against Apple’s Mixed Reality Prowess

Obviously, my Apple Watch prediction was extremely, comically wrong for a few reasons.

First, I underestimated Apple’s ability to expand a market and turn a niche product category into a mainstream one. There were other smartwatches on the market in 2013, none of which were a big hit, so I concluded that the Apple Watch wasn’t going to be a big hit either. I looked at the bulky, ugly aesthetic of existing smartwatches and concluded that the kind of people who were willing to wear them on their wrist every day – nerds like me – weren’t big enough to matter.

But I forgot to remember that Apple is Appleand that it has repeatedly demonstrated that, through sheer willpower, it can turn a niche product for geeks into something everyone wants.

That is a testament to the company’s famous product and marketing prowess. And it’s part of the reason why I’m reluctant to dismiss the Vision Pro’s odds.

Sure, there are good headsets for virtual and mixed reality, and even some decent apps for them. But those headsets aren’t made by Apple, and they aren’t seamlessly integrated into the entire Apple ecosystem the way Vision Pro will be. Having all of your iPhone contacts, iMessages, and iOS settings integrated into a mixed reality headset from the moment you put it on can mean the difference between a device you actually use every day and a new toy you get after a while. several times in a cupboard. to soften.

Another mistake I made with the Apple Watch in 2013 was forgetting that human behavior is not fixed and that our ideas about what is considered fashionable and socially acceptable are constantly changing in response to new technologies.

At the time, part of what I was responding to was a social norm. In those days, it may have been considered rude to look at your watch during a meeting or dinner with your family. But a decade later, that action no longer registers as inappropriate (to me, at least), because so many people now have Apple Watches that many people have developed new standards around them. Now we assume that people checking their watches at dinner are probably trying to avoid pulling out their phones, which would be more rude and disruptive. In other words, mass adoption has broken the taboo.

The same could now happen with mixed reality headsets. Of course, you might feel self-conscious when you put on a Vision Pro today. But in a few years, if a third of your colleagues are participating in Zoom calls with their headsets, and you see people watching VR movies on every flight you take, it might not feel so silly.