Why Biden allies in Michigan are concerned about protest votes over Gaza
For months, anger has been growing within the Democratic Party over President Biden's support for Israel in the war in Gaza. Protesters have shouted at his campaign events, marched outside the White House and vilified him on social media as “Genocide Joe.”
Now next week's Michigan primary will put that discontent on the ballot for the first time, with Biden's liberal opponents urging Democrats to vote against him “unfettered.” Some of the president's allies worry that a move to show disapproval of him now could have lasting consequences for the general election — especially if Mr. Biden does not change his position on the conflict.
The combination of Michigan's early primaries, a large and politically active Arab-American population, progressive students on college campuses and the possibility of a protest vote have raised the stakes of what would otherwise have been a sleepy election in the state.
There are warning signs for Mr. Biden that frustration over Gaza has spread beyond Dearborn and other Detroit suburbs, which are the heart of Michigan's Arab diaspora, and to the state's college campuses, where students increasingly feel an affinity with the Palestinian cause.
In some Michigan communities without a large Arab American presence The crowd has demanded that their local governments issue a ceasefire resolution. Last week, The Detroit Metro Times, an alternative weekly, published endorsed votes “not recorded” in the primaries.
There are no public polls showing how much support Mr. Biden's “unpacked” boost could drain, but Democrats at the highest levels of Michigan politics have warned — most of them privately — that the president risks losing the state to lose. former President Donald J. Trump if those who disagree with his Israel policies stay home or vote for a third party candidate.
“Every vote that doesn't support Joe Biden makes it more likely that we will have a Trump presidency,” said Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, co-chair of Mr. Biden's campaign. “Every vote not cast, or cast for a third party, or cast to deliver a message, makes it more likely that there will be a Trump presidency.”
The “unfettered” voting campaign was announced this month by Layla Elabed, a sister of Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a Palestinian-American progressive who became the first member of Michigan's congressional delegation last weekend to call for voting against Mr. Biden in the primary.
Ms. Tlaib's endorsement raised alarm among Biden supporters in the state's congressional delegation, who worry it will be difficult to convince voters activated by the “unengaged” push in the primaries to vote for Mr. Biden in November supports.
Still, few Democratic officials in Michigan want to risk a backlash if they criticize the effort to introduce “unfettered” voting.
“The Muslim community and the Arab-American communities are obviously very upset, and understandably so,” said Rep. Shri Thanedar, a Detroit Democrat. “You know, about 30,000 innocent civilians have been killed, including women and children. So the concern is understandable. They use this time to gain attention, make a point, and argue a case. And I really don't blame them.”
However, Mr. Thanedar said he would vote for Mr. Biden because “I am not a one-issue voter.”
Michigan Democrats expressed uncertainty about how many people will vote “uncommitted” in Tuesday's primary. As the Biden campaign braces for Arab Americans and young progressive voters to oppose the president in the primaries, Lauren Hitt, a campaign spokeswoman, emphasized that union workers, suburban women and Black voters continued to lend support.
“His investments in infrastructure and green energy have created thousands of union jobs. He walked the picket line with UAW. He is standing up for reproductive rights, an issue that motivated hundreds of thousands of Michiganders to flip the statehouse mid-election,” Ms. Hitt said of Mr. Biden. “He recently met with black voters in Detroit to talk about his administration's efforts to create record low black unemployment. And he is working tirelessly to create a just, lasting peace in the Middle East.”
Two weeks ago, the Biden White House sent a delegation of senior aides to Dearborn to try to defuse tensions with Michigan's Arab-American community. Jon Finer, a deputy national security adviser, told local leaders that the Biden administration had made “missteps” in dealing with Israel and Gaza and had left “a very damaging impression.”
The same day, Mr. Biden declared that Israel had gone “over the top” in its response to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people.
But students, Arab Americans and other Michiganders said in interviews that Mr. Biden's alliance with the Israeli government was inexcusable and would deter them from voting for him in November if he did not call for a ceasefire and the U.S. cut off aid to Israel's war effort. Perhaps more worrying for the president as he tries to win over skeptical young voters, students with no family ties to the Middle East described their advocacy for the Palestinian cause as part of their social identity.
Ruthy Lynch, 21, a student from Traverse City, Michigan, said she didn't know much about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict before the Oct. 7 attack that sparked the war in Gaza.
Ms. Lynch now wears a black and white scarf known as a kaffiyeh on campus to show friends and others that she sides with the Palestinians.
“I wear it as a show of solidarity,” Ms. Lynch said. “It feels good to walk around campus. I see other people wearing kaffiyehs too, and we are trying to kind of normalize this and give more visibility to solidarity with the Palestinians.”
Ms. Lynch said she voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but would not do so in November if he did not call for a ceasefire and cut U.S. military aid to Israel. “I'm not sure I can bring myself to do it,” she said.
A Fox News poll of registered voters released last week found that Mr. Biden trailed Mr. Trump by just two percentage points in a head-to-head matchup in Michigan. With external and independent candidates included, Trump's lead grew to five points.
Abbas Alawieh, a former congressional staffer from Dearborn who helped organize the group Listen to Michigan, which is leading the “noncommitted” effort, said it was Mr. Biden, and not those protesting his foreign policy, who jeopardized his electoral prospects.
“President Biden has put himself at risk in the general election by ensuring that his policies on Gaza are indistinguishable from Netanyahu's most murderous instincts and actions,” Mr. Alawieh said after the Ann Arbor meeting, referring to the Israeli Prime Minister. “He's already lost people, and what we're trying to tell him is that if you take a different approach, that's something that people here in Michigan need to see. Help us prevent Trump from becoming president.”
Mr. Biden's political toxicity in Ann Arbor and Dearborn was evident in his campaign planning this week. Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to visit Grand Rapids on Thursday, and the campaign has sent surrogates, among other things Mitch Landrieu, the former mayor of New OrleansAnd Representatives Sara Jacobs from California and Joyce Beatty of Ohio to address voters — but no events are planned in the congressional district that includes Ann Arbor.
Instead, Representative Ro Khanna of California is hosting an event on Thursday that posters on the University of Michigan campus are calling a “ceasefire town hall” and will appear with Ms. Tlaib in Dearborn on Thursday evening. Mr. Khanna's role as a Biden surrogate is not mentioned — a glaring omission in order not to advertise his ties to the president's campaign.
“If there is no change in the situation in Gaza and in our policy approach, there is a risk that we will lose,” Mr Khanna said. “Every day that bombs fall on innocent children and women in Palestine is not a good day for our party and our prospects.”
Listen to Michigan has publicly set a goal of reaching 10,000 votes — slightly less than the margin by which Trump carried the state in 2016, but about half the number of “uncommitted” votes in the Democratic primary. 2016 and 2020 in Michigan. Our Revolution, the political group formed by supporters of Senator Bernie Sanders, said it was aiming for 10 percent of the primary vote. (Mr. Sanders has rejected the effort, a spokeswoman said.)
While the “unoccupied” supporters have organized events in Dearborn and on Michigan college campuses, they have not built a presence in Detroit's black neighborhoods. Branden Snyder, executive director of Detroit Action, a progressive organizing group in the city, said voters there would be more likely to support a Biden protest if the focus were on domestic issues.
“There are a lot of Black and brown people who are dissatisfied with Biden's policies and are watching Biden spend resources abroad instead of at home on issues that we care about,” he said. “If the reporting really focused on those people, you would be seriously concerned.”
Some Michigan voters say Biden has already lost their support in the general election.
Mozhgan Savabieasfahani, an Iranian-American environmental toxicologist from Ann Arbor who has repeatedly run for local office, handed out business cards Tuesday highlighting her latest city council campaign. Her platform includes cleaning up the city's polluted water, enacting a $15 municipal minimum wage — and telling Congress to “stop funding Israel's wars.”
Dr. Savabieasfahani, 64, said she would not support Mr. Biden even if it would help Mr. Trump's return to the White House.
“We cannot be held hostage between two terrible choices,” she said. “Choose between these two older white men who don't know what you want and don't agree with what you want.”