Biden weighs in on giving Ukraine weapons banned by many U.S. allies
For more than six months, President Biden and his aides have wrestled with one of the most vexing questions in the war in Ukraine: risking the Ukrainian armed forces running out of the artillery shells they desperately need to fight Russia, or agreeing to they cluster munitions – generally prohibited weapons known to cause serious injury to civilians, especially children.
On Thursday, Biden appeared poised to deliver the cluster munitions to Ukraine, a move that would sharply separate him from many of his closest allies, who have signed an international treaty prohibiting the use, stockpiling or transfer of prohibits such weapons.
Several of Mr Biden’s top aides, including Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, last week recommended that he make the switch at a meeting of top national security officials, despite what they have described as their own deep reservations, people said who were familiar with the discussions. . They requested anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations.
The State Department had been the last resort, both because of humanitarian concerns and concerns that the United States would be drastically out of step with its allies.
Now Mr. Biden’s aides think they have little choice.
Ukraine, which has deployed its own cluster munitions in the war, is burning through the available supply of conventional artillery shells and it will take time to ramp up production.
Biden is under constant pressure from President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, who claims the munitions — which disperse small, deadly bombs — are the best way to kill Russians dug into trenches and block Ukraine’s counter-offensive to retake territory. A US official said on Thursday it was now clear that the weapons are “100 percent necessary” to meet current needs on the battlefield.
But for months, Mr Biden and his aides have tried to delay the decision, hoping the tide of the war would turn in Ukraine’s favour. Part of the concern was that the United States seems to be losing its moral high ground by using a weapon that much of the world has condemned and that Russia has used with abandon.
The administration was also aware that sending the weapons to Ukraine would be hugely unpopular among allies and members of Biden’s own party; over the years, many Democrats have led the charge to ban the use of the guns by US troops. When, five days into the war, Jen Psaki, then White House press secretary, was asked about Russia’s use of unconventional weapons, including cluster munitions, she said: “We have seen the reports. If that were true, it would potentially be a war crime.”
More than 100 countries have signed a 15-year-old treaty banning the use of cluster munitions, which rain smaller bombs scattered across the landscape. The weapons, which are designed to explode when they hit the ground, have caused thousands of deaths and injuries, often among children who have picked up duds that failed to fire in the first strikes, only to explode long after a conflict is over.
While White House officials said on Thursday that Mr Biden had not made a final decision, several officials said they expected him to give his final approval soon. The timing is inconvenient for Mr Biden, who heads to Europe next week for a NATO meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania. It also comes as the United States takes steps to destroy other dangerous weapons – the last of its once-extensive arsenal of chemical weapons.
Most of Washington’s closest allies, including Britain, Germany and France, signed the United Nations Convention on Cluster Munitions in 2008. The United States, Russia and Ukraine have never signed the treaty, arguing that there are circumstances in which the weapons must be used, despite the potential for serious civilian casualties.
Mr Biden was convinced, officials said, after the Pentagon argued they would give Ukraine an “improved” version of the weapon with a “dud rate” of about 2 percent of all rounds fired.
Russia, officials noted, has been using its cluster munitions in Ukraine for much of the war, with a dud rate of 40 percent or more, creating a much greater threat. The Ukrainians have also used cluster munitions, although their supply is only a fraction of Washington’s.
Many bomb experts say that US cluster munitions dud rates are likely much higher than the Pentagon’s estimates.
“If they land in water, soft ground like plowed fields and muddy areas, that can definitely affect reliability, making more duds,” said Al Vosburgh, a retired army colonel trained in bomb disposal who is a humanitarian. non-profit mine countermeasures organization.
On Thursday morning, Human Rights Watch issued a long report on the use of cluster munitions in Ukraine. “Cluster munitions used by Russia and Ukraine are now killing civilians and will continue to do so for many years to come.” Mary Warhamwrote the organization’s acting weapons director. “Both sides should stop using them immediately and not try to get more of these indiscriminate weapons.” In fact, the Ukrainians have been using the weapons since the beginning of the war, often on their own territory.
US officials said the fact that the Ukrainians decided they would rather use the guns — at all costs — rather than live under Russian rule has become a critical factor in Biden’s thinking.
US officials also say they will work with Ukraine to track where the weapons are being used to help clean up unexploded ordnance.
Biden administration officials spent months trying to scrape together enough conventional artillery shells to keep firing at Russian positions. But after convincing South Korea to fire hundreds of thousands of bullets and tapping US stockpiles of artillery shells stored in Israel, the Pentagon predicts Ukraine will fall short.
US officials believe that Putin is betting that his troops can seize that moment to prevail.
In interviews, US officials said they expected the shipment of the cluster munitions to be a temporary step until production of conventional artillery shells can be ramped up, likely in the spring of next year.
The war in Ukraine has been an artillery battle at its core, with both sides hurling massive numbers of grenades at entrenched ranks of soldiers in the east and south of the country. Early in the war, Ukraine was running low on Soviet-era shells and has since largely reverted to firing artillery guns and cartridges donated by the United States and its allies.
During this global struggle to supply Ukraine with ammunition, the Pentagon repeatedly reminded the White House that the United States was sitting on a mountain of untapped munitions that could ease the pressure on artillery shortages: cluster munitions.
And for months, Pentagon officials said on Thursday, the White House objected, citing concerns about the use of the weapons and saying they were unnecessary.
But with Ukraine’s counter-offensive running up against stronger-than-expected Russian defenses, US officials have recently signaled a shift.
Laura Cooper, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, told US lawmakers late last month that the Pentagon had determined that cluster munitions would be useful to Ukraine, “especially against entrenched Russian positions on the battlefield.”
General Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed reports published last Friday that the Biden administration was considering sending cluster munitions to Ukraine and a powerful weapon called the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS. Biden has so far refused to send the missile system, partly because the weapon could reach deep into Russia.
In a series of recent interviews, Mr. Zelensky has reiterated his plea for more guns, even though the United States has pledged more than $40 billion in arms, ammunition and equipment since the start of the war.
“The first problem, of course, is ammunition,” said Mr. Zelensky The Washington Post in May.
Mr. Zelensky told CNN in a broadcast on Wednesday that Ukraine’s counter-offensive has been “delayed” by entrenched Russian defenses and that it would have begun “much sooner” had Western weapons arrived more quickly.
John Ismay reporting contributed.