Blinken expresses a grand vision for peace in the Middle East, but hits a wall in Israel
As Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken stood on the tarmac of a Cairo airport Thursday before returning to the United States, he expressed confidence in the support he said he had received from leaders across the Middle East for a vision of post-war Gaza. , and ultimately a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
“None of this will happen overnight,” he said at the end of a high-stakes week of diplomacy with 10 governments. “But there is now a greater willingness among countries to make the tough decisions, to do what it takes to move forward on that path.”
But whatever ground Mr. Blinken may have gained talks with Arab and Turkish leaders, the one government that matters most – Israel’s – has shown no sign that it is aligned with the Biden administration’s long-term goals. The Israelis are interested in establishing full diplomatic relations with powerful Arab states like Saudi Arabia, but remain publicly dismissive of a critical American and Arab demand: the creation of a Palestinian state.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his aides are focused on the war in Gaza against Hamas. “Today no one can talk to Israelis about a Palestinian state,” Danny Danon, a senior lawmaker from Netanyahu’s party, said in an interview. “Today we must look at stability and security.”
During his trip, Mr. Blinken repeatedly said that now is the time to find a political solution, however difficult and ambitious, to the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The eruption of violence on October 7, when an estimated 1,200 people were killed in a Hamas-led attack, and the Israeli government’s failure that day to protect its citizens, demonstrate that Israel cannot rely solely on its security apparatus to protect citizens. security, other U.S. officials say.
Mr Blinken left tough talks with Israel until the end of his trip, which began on Friday when he landed in Turkey. From there he went to Greece, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Only then did he spend a day in talks in Israel before driving to Ramallah to visit the Palestinian Authority, which controls parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, before flying to Bahrain and then Egypt.
It was the secretary’s most ambitious diplomatic mission to the region, his fourth in three months of war.
By the time he met with Israeli leaders on Tuesday, Mr. Blinken had heard enough to tell them that the region’s leaders refused to join a multinational security force in Gaza, as some Israeli officials had proposed. He said post-war security should be provided by Palestinians not linked to Hamas, and that Gaza and the West Bank should be governed by the Palestinian Authority, US officials said.
And while leaders in the region said for now they would not pay for Gaza’s reconstruction, they could do so if Israel agrees to a concrete path toward a Palestinian state that includes both territories, Mr. Blinken told Israeli officials.
There was also a bigger temptation: In a carpeted desert tent, Saudi Arabia’s leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, told Mr Blinken over a meal of baby camel meat on Monday that Saudi Arabia was still willing to consider normalizing ties . with Israel, which has never formally recognized the country, if the government there agreed to a Palestinian nation, said a senior State Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the diplomacy more candidly.
In the normalization talks leading up to the Hamas attack on Israel, Prince Mohammed focused on extracting concessions from Washington, including a U.S.-Saudi mutual defense treaty, U.S. cooperation on a civilian nuclear program and more arms sales, U.S. officials said.
But the price for the Saudis to give Israel diplomatic recognition has now risen as Saudi citizens and many others in the region are outraged by what they see as an Israeli massacre in Gaza, the officials said. The Israeli bombardment and ground invasion have killed more than 23,000 Palestinians, health officials in the enclave say.
This is why all the talk by Americans about long-term visions for the region could remain just that: just talk. Mr Netanyahu and his far-right government oppose the idea of a Palestinian state. The prime minister has even gone so far as to advocate strengthening Hamas in Gaza years ago to keep the Palestinian Authority weak and the Palestinians divided. When Mr. Blinken presented the Saudi leader’s proposal in Tel Aviv on Tuesday, the Israelis did not get a strong response and the Americans are waiting for a counteroffer, the State Department official said.
Israeli officials objected to several U.S. demands — including that they slow the invasion, release funds to the Palestinian Authority and allow displaced Palestinians in Gaza to return to homes in the north, where at least half of the buildings are damaged is. Mr Netanyahu would only agree to allow a United Nations team to enter northern Gaza at some point to assess conditions there.
Mr Blinken pressed him on statements made by two far-right ministers suggesting Palestinians would be permanently expelled from Gaza. After Mr. Blinken left Israel on Thursday morning, Mr. Netanyahu released a statement pledging that “Israel has no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or expelling its civilian population.”
Mr. Netanyahu needs the United States to maintain its diplomatic, military and financial support for Israel. So far, President Biden has expressed strong support for Israel and has not placed any conditions on the sale of US bombs, artillery shells and other weapons to Israel, despite global outrage over civilian casualties and destruction in Gaza.
But Netanyahu is also trying to appease the Israeli mainstream, which wants the invasion to continue until Hamas is ousted. And he must mollify the far-right members of his own fragile coalition, who could withdraw from the government, leading to his possible ouster, if he gives in to too many international demands.
“It was not a good visit,” Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington who is critical of Netanyahu, said in an interview.
“Netanyahu’s government is completely paralyzed,” he said. “The far-right ministers will not tolerate what the US considers essential, both in terms of the final phase of the war and dealing with ‘the day after’.”
During a meeting with Mr Blinken, Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, said Israel is not slowing down its campaign in northern Gaza but merely changing tactics, according to an Israeli official briefed on the meeting who spoke on condition of anonymity. in accordance with Israeli protocol.
Mr. Blinken was also told that Israeli military activity in southern Gaza would actually intensify because of the scale of the challenge there, the Israeli official said. The Hamas leadership is believed to be hiding in Khan Younis, the main city in southern Gaza, and many of the remaining hostages – more than 100 – are believed to be in the area.
Mr Netanyahu rejected Mr Blinken’s calls for civilians to quickly return to northern Gaza. The majority of the area’s 1.1 million residents were forced to move south at the start of the war, ahead of the Israeli invasion.
“Returning Palestinian civilians to northern Gaza will endanger them,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement to The New York Times.
“There are still thousands of Hamas terrorists in northern Gaza, miles of underground terror tunnels and other Hamas infrastructure that Israel will have to deal with before it is safe for civilians to return,” the report said.
Mr Netanyahu’s political position is precarious, and Mr Danon, the senior lawmaker, said his priority is to win over Israelis, not the US government. “Returning the hostages and wiping out Hamas – I don’t think the Israelis will accept anything less than that,” he said.
Before flying from Cairo back to Washington, Mr. Blinken acknowledged to reporters that this was Israel’s immediate need, but he said Israeli officials would come to see the bigger picture. “Israel’s integration, its security, a path to a Palestinian state – that is the equation,” he said.