Candidates for the California Senate face off in the first debate

It's Monday. The leading candidates vying for a seat in the U.S. Senate from California face off today. Plus an update on a plan by tech billionaires to build a city from the ground up in Solano County.

When Dianne Feinstein died in September, she left vacant the U.S. Senate seat she had held for more than three decades.

Governor Gavin Newsom quickly appointed Laphonza Butler, president of Emily's List and a former labor leader, as California's newest senator until an election could be held this year to fill the seat. Butler announced within weeks that she was not interested in running in the 2024 election.

That decision opened the way for a competitive primary. Dozens of candidates entered the race, but four have emerged as the leading candidates: three Democratic members of Congress and a former major league baseball star. Tonight they will be on stage together for the first time for a debate at the University of Southern California, from 6:00 PM to 7:30 PM.

The foursome include Adam Schiff, 63, Democrat of Burbank, currently leading in the polls and known for serving as lead prosecutor in the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump; Katie Porter, 50, an Orange County Democrat who has regularly finished in second place; Barbara Lee, 77, Democrat of Oakland and longtime progressive; and Steve Garvey, 75, a former first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres and the only Republican among the four.

Under California's open primary system, they all compete in the same March 5 primary, and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election in November to determine the winner.

(Technically, two elections for the seat are held simultaneously: one to fill the seat from Election Day until the end of the current term on December 31, and another for the new six-year term that will follow. Voters will vote in both primaries on March 5, and both general elections on November 5. The same four candidates lead the pack in both races.)

Garvey, the Republican, could have a major impact on the race, experts say. Porter, Lee and Schiff are expected to split the Democratic vote, while Garvey appears to be gaining popularity among Republicans as the party's only candidate with significant name recognition.

“There are not nearly enough Republicans in California to elect a candidate to statewide office,” said Dan Schnur, a political analyst who teaches at the University of Southern California, Pepperdine University and the University of California, Berkeley. . “But there are just enough to get a candidate into the second round.”

That math, he said, has created a roadblock for Lee and Porter — and potentially a big advantage for Schiff. Because California's electorate is so liberal, any Democrat who wins a seat in the November election will automatically have an advantage if second place goes to a Republican.

“The general election could be handed to Schiff on a silver platter if Garvey were to finish second” in the primaries, Schnur said.

So far, Garvey has maintained a relatively low campaign profile. Schnur, once a Republican political consultant, called him “a cipher.” Garvey recently told reporters that he would come up with ideas to solve homelessness in California if he survived the primaries.

Schiff is confronting a vested interest in raising Garvey's profile, as well as major endorsements from the establishment, including those from the Los Angeles Times editorial board and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Lee is expected to emphasize her progressive bona fides and her appeal as a black woman to California's diverse, majority-minority electorate. Porter is expected to underscore her popularity not only among progressives and younger voters, but also among suburban women, a crucial bloc in the state.

“Schiff is a Democrat of the Bidenesque establishment,” Schnur said. “And in very different ways, Lee and Porter represent the progressive activist wing of the party. If this campaign happened six or eight years from now, Porter would have a major advantage. But the shift is happening at a pace that appears to be working in Schiff's favor.”

Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy at USC, said the debate will be a time for candidates to introduce themselves to voters, many of whom haven't paid much attention to the race.

He said he expected Schiff, Porter and Lee to be well-versed in policy issues. Garvey is a different matter.

“He's no Arnold Schwarzenegger,” Grose said. 'He could break out. He can be very charming. But it might also have a bit of a 'deer in the headlights' look.”

Grose said Garvey could sway primary voters — who are likely to be more conservative on average than general election voters — by highlighting the difficulty Democratic state leaders have had in reducing homelessness.

Grose added that as he watched the debate, he planned to focus on how the three leading Democrats answered questions about the homelessness issue. He pointed to Gov. Gavin Newsom's recent efforts in court to make it easier for cities to forcibly remove homeless people from the streets, a case the U.S. Supreme Court will hear later this year.

“I saw all three Democrats balancing the importance of empathy and help with a position of 'It's time to do something,'” Grose said.

For more:

If you read one story, let it be this one

In Solano County, tech billionaires are trying to build a city from the ground up. But some locals do not want to sell the land.

Tell us

Today we ask about love: not whose you like but What you love your corner of California.

Email us a love letter to your California city, neighborhood or region – or to the Golden State as a whole – and we might share it in an upcoming newsletter. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.

And before you go: good news

Finding an exercise regimen that doesn't require you to buy expensive equipment or an expensive gym membership can sometimes be a challenge. But getting in shape doesn't have to be a big financial investment.

Erik Vance, an editor at The New York Times, recently wrote about how to work on a budget, with creative tips for using your home, the outdoors and some basic equipment. Think: jumping rope, walking with a weighted backpack, or, for the more adventurous among us, lugging heavy stones across the beach.

His list includes recommendations for people at all fitness (and commitment) levels, whether you're looking for high-intensity training or just want to pursue a New Year's resolution. Read the full article here.

Thank you for reading. I'll come back tomorrow. — Soumya

PS Here it is today's mini crossword.

Maia Coleman and Briana Scalia contributed to California Today. You can reach the team via CAtoday@nytimes.com.

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