China is winning in solar energy, but its use of coal is raising alarms

China is installing about as many solar panels and wind turbines as the rest of the world combined, and is on track to meet its clean energy goal six years early. The country uses renewable energy sources to meet almost all of its electricity demand growth.

Yet there’s another side to that rapid expansion, which is causing a stir in Washington at a critical time of climate diplomacy: China is also building new power plants that burn coal, the dirtiest of fossil fuels, at a pace that dwarfs the rest . of the world.

China is responsible for a third of the world’s energy-related greenhouse gas emissions – more than North America, Central America, South America, Europe and Africa combined.

John Kerry, President Biden’s special envoy on climate change, is preparing to host his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, for talks starting Friday at the Sunnylands estate in Southern California, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss planning details. President Barack Obama and Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, launched a joint effort for climate action a decade ago in Sunnylands.

“Sunnylands is a symbolic place – it is where the first climate seeds between the US and China were planted,” said Li Shuo, policy advisor for Greenpeace East Asia.

Two weeks later, climate will most likely be on the agenda when Mr Biden is expected to meet Mr Xi in San Francisco at the summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation countries. World leaders will then meet in Dubai in early December for COP28, the final round of global climate negotiations.

It is no exaggeration to say that the health of the planet depends on the actions of the United States and China. The United States has pumped the most carbon dioxide into the atmosphere over the past two centuries, and China is currently the biggest polluter. Their willingness to reduce emissions will essentially determine whether the planet continues to warm dangerously, leading to the disappearance of coral reefs, ice-free Arctic summers and widespread displacement from more intense storms, floods and wildfires.

But more than ever, the decisions made in Beijing could outweigh those made in Washington or the European capitals.

“China’s annual emissions are so large that cutting them is now the key to any hope of preventing global temperature spikes and climate disasters,” said Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton administration climate official.

In Shandong province, a peninsula of heavy industry between Beijing and Shanghai, China’s energy decisions are clearly visible. Solar panels, interspersed with enormous wind turbines, stretch into the distance on the province’s north coast. More wind turbines and solar panels decorate hills and corn fields inland. On roofs and sometimes on the south walls of residential towers, solar panel installations absorb the sun’s energy.

Solar power producers in Shandong generate so much electricity in the afternoon that exceeds demand that they sometimes have to pay the provincial transmission grid to accept it. They do this to continue to collect government subsidies based on the number of kilowatt hours they produce.

In some ways, China has come further in tackling climate change than almost anyone expected just a few years ago. Mr Xi announced in December 2020 that China plans to triple its wind and solar capacity by 2030. China is on track to reach that goal by the end of next year, said Frank Haugwitz, a solar industry consultant who specializes in Chinese data.

Chinese officials could announce greater ambitions in renewable energy as they move closer to the existing target. However, U.S. officials are more concerned about China’s coal development and are unlikely to praise new clean energy commitments that are not accompanied by aggressive measures to curb carbon dioxide emissions.

China’s size means its solar and wind power may not be enough to tackle climate change if the country doesn’t shift away from coal, climate experts say.

“You would be insane trying to advance this cause globally if you don’t focus on coal,” Kerry said in Beijing this summer.

Mr. Kerry has said the United States and China agree that countries need to cut coal production more quickly, but not on how quickly to do so.

Chinese officials have defended coal-fired power plants as necessary for national energy security. The country imports most of its oil and natural gas, but has the largest coal reserves.

China claims its coal-fired power plants are designed to minimize overall emissions and allow China to use more renewable energy. The government demands that new coal-fired power stations are no longer built that only operate at full capacity. They must also have the capacity to ramp up and down their electricity generation to compensate for peaks and troughs in renewable energy. China has also retrofitted almost all older power plants to allow for similar flexibility, said Zhang Jianyu, executive director of the BRI International Green Development Institute, an environmental group in Beijing.

China has also invested heavily in transmission in recent years to connect more parts of the country to its solar farms and wind turbines. In August, the latest monthly data available, 97.8 percent of wind-generated electricity and 98.8 percent of solar energy were used – indicating that China is using its renewable energy effectively.

Nate Hultman, director of the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland, said it is critical that China works on the reliability of its power grid — an issue that could determine whether China will use all the coal it has developed.

“If they figure out how to run their grids with high levels of renewables and improved efficiency, that will alleviate the pressure of having to use coal,” said Mr. Hultman, a former aide to Mr. Kerry. “The real outcome for the climate depends on how you manage that network.”

On the western outskirts of Weifang, a city in northern Shandong, the Minghui Photovoltaic Power Generation Company and other nearby solar power providers were ordered to shut down new installations for at least three months while the power grid catches up. said a company executive who agreed to speak only if identified by his surname, Wu.

Geography and weather patterns pose challenges for China in reducing coal use. Most of the country’s major, energy-thirsty cities are located in areas where wind is minimal. This makes solar energy generation and efficient transmission from other regions crucial.

The coastline, on the other hand, is windy.

In Weifang, where international kite flying competitions are held, hundreds of wind turbines sit in tidal pools along the city’s 110-kilometer coastline. Building turbines miles out to sea, as Europe has done, has been difficult for China because much of the seabed is soft and muddy.

One reason for China’s rapid deployment of renewable energy is favorable zoning laws and public support. Renewable energy approvals are granted quickly, unlike the often lengthy procedures in the United States, where one province met for 19 evenings to debate a single wind farm.

Sharp improvements in air quality in China have also helped build public support for renewable energy – although scientists say stricter pollution limits for factories, boilers and vehicles have played a central role in cleaning up the country’s air. China reduced fine particle pollution by 42 percent between 2013 and 2021, according to an analysis of satellite photos from the University of Chicago.

Zhu Peng, a fertilizer saleswoman who recently went fishing on a beach in Weifang, said she welcomed the wind turbines popping up nearby.

“For us, this is the landscape,” she said. “I don’t find it disturbing at all. Otherwise we can’t see anything but water and rocks.”

Li You research contributed.