What awaits us in 2024? The cookie cutters tell it all.

Ben Clark may be uniquely qualified to predict the outcome of the next presidential election. He is not a pollster or political strategist. He makes cookie cutters.

The metal baking tools are an uncanny cultural indicator, says Mr. Clark, who directs them Ann Clark, the largest manufacturer of cookie cutters in the United States. Just after the 2016 election, he noticed that the sales percentage of his Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump cutters roughly matched the mood.

Last spring, guitar and musical note shapes started selling at a rapid pace, just as Taylor Swift was starting her Eras tour. In July, cookie-cutter lipsticks and convertibles gained steam, thanks to Barbie mania.

On a recent morning at the Rutland plant. Vt., Mr. Clark was puzzling over next year’s election — specifically how to make a cookie-cutter of President Biden, whose silhouette is not as recognizable. Suddenly it hit him.

You may not know the name Ann Clark, but whether you buy a cookie cutter from Williams-Sonoma or from Amazon, it’s probably hers. The company, which was founded in 1989 by Ann and John Clark – Mr Clark’s parents – says it accounts for about 65 percent of all cookie cutter sales in the country, about $12 million a year.

The strategy is twofold: Throw out a wide variety of cookie cutters (about five million per year, in 750 shapes) to see what sells. And respond quickly to new fads and trends – a winning choice in an industry dominated by companies that are not as agile because they import their products from China.

Ann Clark sells classic cutters such as the gingerbread man And the heartbut the top sellers tend to be more unusual: a Mason jar (the big hit of 2015), a llama (huge in 2019). This year’s breakout star is a gnome; The company owes its popularity to the success of Cottagecore, an ethos that embraces rustic living.

With nostalgia on the rise, the company predicts there will be more interest in 1960s and 1970s psychedelia next year, with shapes like mushrooms and peace signs. Given the post-pandemic surge in travel, bubbles and stacks of suitcases may catch on.

Although cookie baking is closely associated with Christmas – and Ann Clark generates 40 percent of its sales at this time of year – much of the company’s success is due to the recognition that cookie decorating can be enjoyed all year round. by an activity, and serving the legions of dedicated customers clamoring for new and unusual shapes.

“Cookie cutter collectors are part of a cult,” says Arlene Chua, a banker and cookie decorator in Staten Island who owns about 5,000 cookie cutters. She recently converted a wardrobe into cookie storage, with bins divided into themes such as Christmas, fashion and baby shower.

Cookie cutters connect her with memories. Her high-heeled shoe dresser reminds her of shopping in Manhattan; she associates her church-shaped one with her mother, a devout Catholic.

A cookie cutter “is almost an extension of our personality,” Ms. Chua said. Many collectors have shapes that have been passed down from generation to generation.

Given all this, you would expect the Clark family and its business to be a home of holiday cheer. But on a Monday in December, the factory – a gray building on an industrial estate – looked more like a welding factory than Santa’s workshop. Inside was a whole bunch of power tools, metal sheets, cardboard boxes and conveyor belts.

A few festive decorations stood out: a wreath at the entrance, gingerbread men painted as little surprises on cubbies and doors. Mrs. Clark, 83, with her white bob and cheerful eyes, could easily pass for Mrs. Claus.

Her start in the business came not through baking, but through art. Mrs. Clark was painting ornaments and other items to sell at craft shows in 1989 when she drew a pig and reproduced the image in several items, such as a coaster, a cutting board and a cookie cutter. The cutters sold everything, and her husband convinced her to go all in. (He died in 2000.)

Their son Ben, now 59, joined the company in 1998 simply because he wanted to move home from Maryland.

The cookie cutter, he said, “is a widget for me.”

Like any good gadget, it must meet a number of strict specifications. “It has to be very sturdy,” Ms. Clark said. The base should be sharp enough to cut through cold dough, but not so sharp as to injure the baker. The shape should be immediately recognizable (although some require close inspection). That reindeer can’t have skinny legs, which can easily break off when baking.

The cutters themselves are also made with extreme precision. Strips of shiny, tinned steel are cut to the exact length of each cookie cutter and welded into circles. Those circles are placed on top of heavy metal molds and with the push of a button, a set of arms push the metal into specific positions to form the shape.

The machines can make 600 to 1,000 cutters per hour and allow the company to quickly develop new shapes without having to rely on an outside supplier, as most of its competitors do.

Despite all the automation, the cookie cutter remains one of the few timeless and inexpensive tools in an increasingly mechanized baking world, says Kay Johnson, curator at the National Historical Museum Cookie Cutter in Joplin, Mo.

Cookie cutters are also mirrors of American culture through the ages, she said. For example, there is one way historians know that housekeepers In the 19th century, cards were played with cookie cutters in the shapes of the four suits. In the 20th century, many of the most popular nursery rhymes were those – such as “Humpty Dumpty” and “Hickory Dickory Dock” – whose characters were turned into cookie cutters.

Mr. Clark stays on top of current fads by looking at online search data. While anyone can submit an idea for a shape, search interest in certain cookie cutter shapes usually determines which ones are produced. A Barbie inspired one doll head was immediately given the green light, while a proposal to create a Covid-era surgical mask was rejected. And some ideas don’t work: Two years ago, the company stopped production of a cookie cutter in the shape of a gun because employees objected.

In the company’s warehouse, cookie cutters are arranged from the most popular (graduation cap, unicorn head, rabbit) to the least popular (pair of scissors, snail, the state of California).

“I’ve given up my predictions on this,” Mr. Clark said.

Random shapes will suddenly appear and he will try to find an explanation. Why sell from hexagons jumping in the spring? Because people make hamantaschen for the Jewish holiday of Purim. And into the boom mane around the same time? Ramadan.

The future of the company is more difficult to predict. The rise of 3D printing could threaten the Clarks’ giant; Some companies use the technology for this purpose printed plastic cookie cutters on request in highly customized shapes.

It’s also uncertain how long Americans will remain interested in cookie cutters. According to market research firm Circana, sales remained stable from November 2022 to October 2023.

Deleting cookies takes time and patience, Mr. Clark said, but “it’s all about instant gratification now.”

Yet there is a larger potential audience. Ann Clark began expanding internationally in 2018 and the cutters are now available across Europe and in countries such as Japan and Brazil.

Mr. Clark considered researching country-specific traditions and developing corresponding forms. Instead, he simply released all 750 forms overseas and saw what sold well.

The spike in the number of teddy bear carvers in Britain taught him about the importance of the stuffed animals, which many Britons continue beyond childhood. The popularity of goose cakes in Germany introduced him to St. Martin’s Day, a holiday the centerpiece of which is a roast goose.

The experience provided a valuable lesson, Mr. Clark said. What better way to get to know the world than through the cookie cutter?