What an El Niño winter could mean for California
There is a good chance that this winter will be a wet winter.
The intermittent climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which typically means more rain and snow for California, developed over the summer and is expected to intensify in the coming months. And this year’s El Niño is predicted to be exceptionally strong — perhaps even in the top five ever, according to Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.
“This will likely be an event of historical significance,” Swain said told reporters earlier this month. “There is a greater chance of a wetter than average winter across California.”
Of course there are no guarantees. Experts emphasize that not every El Niño period is extra wet in the Golden State, and the effects of the weather pattern often vary from country to country (El Niño effects tend to be greater in dry Southern California than in the North) .
“We have had wet years in California that are not El Niño, like last year,” said Alex Hall, director of the Center for Climate Science at UCLA. “And we have had dry years where El Niños occurred.”
Still, the deck is stacked in a soggy direction. According to the National Weather Service, between 50 and 70 percent of El Niños since 1950 have resulted in above-average winter precipitation in California, meaning we’re in for a second straight rainy winter.
Due to a deluge of atmospheric river storms that battered California last winter, the state received 141 percent of its average annual rainfall in the 12 months ending September 30, according to state data. The period ranks as the 10th wettest water year in California since record keeping began 128 years ago.
Hall told me that California could benefit from another wet winter, which would help return moisture to soils parched by years of extreme drought. A year ago, the entire state was in a drought; now this is less than 5 percent.
“We need at least an average year,” he said. “It would be nice to get an average year so that we continue to feel resilient.”
The state won’t be able to receive as much rainfall and snowmelt as last year because reservoirs are already much fuller than a year ago. This month, Governor Gavin Newsom accelerated a plan to build a new state-owned reservoir – the first in almost half a century – but that won’t be ready for some time.
State officials say they are preparing flood control infrastructure and watching for risks. Experts say if the winter is rainy, the risk of flooding will be even greater than last year, when levee breaches caused serious damage to California communities.
“There is a lot of flood risk across the state,” Gary Lippner, deputy director for flood control and dam safety at the California Department of Water Resources, told reporters last month. He noted that coastal California in particular did not have extensive flood control systems. “That’s keeping me up a little bit at night as I head into an El Niño year,” he said.
Where we travel to
Today’s tip comes from Laura Cantrell, who lives in San Diego:
“In addition to the park itself, Balboa Park is a beautiful place to view art. The San Diego Museum of Art has an impressive collection ranging from Old Masters to contemporary artists, as well as an interesting variety of temporary exhibitions. Right next door is the Timken Museum of Art, which is small, has no admission fee, and has a collection of traditional work. Across the street from the Prado is the recently renovated Mingei, with a changing collection of (mostly) contemporary works.
A little further north, the Oceanside Museum of Art always has interesting exhibitions, mostly from local artists. It’s a pretty impressive museum for a small town. It is also in a good location, within walking distance of many restaurants and the Pacific Ocean. Enjoy watching!”
Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We will share more in future editions of the newsletter.
Tell us
I think about the way Californians celebrate Thanksgiving. At the beach? With sourdough filling?
Email your Golden State Thanksgiving traditions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. Please include your full name and the city where you live.
And before you go: good news
The California grizzly bear, one of the state’s most recognizable symbols, is getting a new, slightly less familiar companion: the pale bat.
Under a new Senate bill that Gov. Gavin Newsom signed in October, the pale bat will become the state’s official bat and join the California State Library’s list of state symbols in 2024.
Light golden in color and usually about two to three inches long once fully grown. Pale bats are most commonly found in the western parts of North America and are known to live in habitats from the desert and Sierra Nevada to the coastline. The state lawmakers who wrote the bill chose them because bats, as a natural predator, protect the state’s agriculture.
The pig-nosed bats are West Coast residents through and through and are also known for their immunity to scorpion venom and for their social nature. “Besides being messy, they are great bats to have around,” said Corky Quirk of NorCal Bats, a bat rescue organization. The Sacramento Bee.