Is the end of the filibuster near?

Time may finally be running out for the filibuster, the signature Senate delaying tactic embraced by some as a protector of minority rights and reviled by others as an outdated weapon of partisan obstruction.

With Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announcing that she will not seek re-election, the filibuster is now on track to lose the two senators who kept it in place in 2022 over the objections of the rest of their party. She and her fellow filibuster defender, Sen. Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, who is also retiring, left Democrats just two votes short of ending the filibuster when it came to changes to voting laws that were supported by a majority.

Perhaps just as importantly, Senator Mitch McConnell, the Kentucky Republican who enthusiastically used the filibuster to his advantage for decades, is stepping down from his position as top party leader, diminishing the influence of one of the filibuster’s key practitioners and defenders.

Depending on how the November elections go, the push for the power of the procedural tool — which essentially requires 60 votes to advance legislation in the Senate — could be substantial.

“It will be challenged,” said Mr. Manchin, who sided with McConnell and Senate Republicans to block fellow Democrats from rewriting the Senate rule book.

Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and majority leader, said as much recently when he suggested that his party could again try to change the filibuster rules for voting rights legislation if Democrats gain control of the Senate, House of Representatives and White House. House. next year.

“When people try — courts or legislatures — to take away the right to vote, especially from the most disenfranchised, we have an obligation to do everything we can to restore that right to vote,” Mr. Schumer said after Ms. Sinema. now independent, to give up her seat given her enormous re-election challenge.

The filibuster, once rarely used, has become a routine part of life in the Senate and has stalled significant legislation. It has played a central role in efforts to block civil rights legislation in the past, but in recent years has ensnared gun control, health care and other social policies.

Under current Senate rules, most legislation is subject to a 60-vote threshold to pass. And because the two parties are typically so closely divided, this gives the minority significant power to block measures otherwise supported by the majority.

Filibuster proponents say it is one of the defining features of the Senate that sets it apart from the House of Representatives, a crucial tool that enforces bipartisanship and ensures minority views are heard.

“I think getting 60 votes is a good exercise, and it makes it difficult to pass the most extreme ideas,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina. “That’s a good thing.”

Its opponents say it has outlived its usefulness and effectively puts the Senate under minority rule by thwarting the will of the majority on major issues. They want this to be jettisoned, especially given increased political polarization and the difficulty of reaching compromise in Congress.

“Americans see the dysfunction in the Senate, and the cause is directly related to the lack of majority government,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut. “All that hassle, the time-consuming, arcane rules that have simply been abused lately. It may have made sense at a time when people agreed to disagree and then moved on. But now people don’t agree with anything.”

The Senate has been working to get rid of the filibuster for decades, providing alternative ways to pass tax legislation, such as simple majority voting — a process that both parties have used to pass economic measures. Democrats in 2013 abolished the 60-vote threshold for judicial and executive branch nominations after being frustrated by Republican filibusters against President Barack Obama’s appeals court nominees. Republicans ditched the filibuster against Supreme Court nominees in 2017 to place conservative nominees on the court.

But the most significant recent effort to undermine the anti-legislation filibuster failed in January 2022. Democrats, stymied by a voting rights bill they said was needed to overcome voter suppression efforts in the states, attempted a to set new precedent in the Senate that would be overruled. the requirement for a supermajority vote on bills specifically related to election laws, saying that such fundamental measures deserve special status.

Mr McConnell led the charge against the procedural change, warning it would destroy the Senate. When Ms. Sinema announced her retirement, he credited her with preserving the filibuster.

“The institution of the Senate is only as strong as the people willing to defend it,” McConnell said. “History will remember that, with the defining characteristic of the Senate under serious threat, Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s wisdom and dedication to this body rivaled that of her most experienced colleagues.”

Mr. McConnell has repeatedly said over the years that he had no intention of getting rid of the filibuster, and he resisted President Donald J. Trump’s demands to jettison it to make it easier to pass conservative priorities to push.

With Mr. McConnell leaving leadership at the end of the year, the race is on to replace him. Both leading contenders, Senators John Thune of South Dakota and John Cornyn of Texas, say they are committed to keeping the filibuster alive. Mr. Thune has raised the likely possibility that a filibuster exception for voting rights, for example, would quickly lead to exceptions for other issues, eventually eliminating the tactic altogether.

In an interview, Mr. Cornyn said he, too, was committed to preserving the right to filibuster.

“I think the filibuster has prevented the Senate from becoming the House of Representatives, where purely partisan majorities can pass legislation,” he said. “I am an industrialist.”

But if Trump prevails in November and Republicans gain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the Senate leader will undoubtedly face calls to eliminate or weaken the filibuster to sweep conservative legislative proposals over Democratic opposition. to press. Those calls may be hard to resist.

Either way, lawmakers from both parties are considering the future of the filibuster with the departures of Mr. Manchin and Ms. Sinema, and with Mr. McConnell moving to the sidelines of leadership.

“The handwriting is on the wall,” Mr. Blumenthal said. “It’s history.”