How leaders and diplomats are trying to end the Gaza war

Top officials from at least a dozen different governments are trying to strike a dizzying array of deals to end the Gaza war and answer the divisive question of how the territory will be governed after the fighting stops.

The smallest group of major discussions is aimed at reaching a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. This would involve the exchange of more than 100 Israeli hostages held by Hamas for a ceasefire, and thousands of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.

A second track focuses on reforming the Palestinian Authority, the semi-autonomous body that governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. US and Arab officials are discussing overhauling the authority's leadership and taking control of Gaza after the war ends, taking power from Israel and Hamas.

In a third track, U.S. and Saudi officials are pushing Israel to agree to terms for the creation of a Palestinian state in exchange for Saudi Arabia establishing formal ties with Israel for the first time ever.

The requirements and outcomes discussed in all three processes are interconnected, and the conversations are usually viewed as long shots. The war began with Hamas' terrorist attack on October 7, which killed about 1,200 people, Israeli officials said. The Israeli counterattack has killed more than 25,000 Palestinians in Gaza, health ministry officials there say. President Biden has given Israel full support for the war.

Significant obstacles must be overcome in any set of negotiations. Most notably, the Israeli government says it will not allow full Palestinian sovereignty, casting doubt on whether progress can be made on key fronts. And Israel's military campaign has not destroyed Hamas, so it is unclear how Hamas could be persuaded to step aside while it still controls part of Gaza.

The United States is the power that tries to bring everything together. Brett McGurk, the top White House official for the Middle East, was in the region last week and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke to him by phone several times during a trip to Africa, a senior administration official said of Foreign Affairs. The Biden administration wants to ensure that a top US official speaks face-to-face with Israeli and Arab leaders at all times.

Officials are throwing around all kinds of ideas, most of which are preliminary, long-term proposals or strongly opposed by some parties. Several controversial suggestions include:

• Transferring power within the Palestinian Authority from the incumbent president, Mahmoud Abbas, to a new prime minister, while Mr. Abbas retains a ceremonial role.

• Sending an Arab peacekeeping force to Gaza to strengthen a new Palestinian administration there.

• Adopting a UN Security Council resolution, supported by the United States, that would recognize the Palestinians' right to a state of their own.

The following is a road map to the three tracks, based on interviews with more than a dozen diplomats and other officials involved in the talks, all of whom spoke anonymously to discuss them more freely.

1. Hostages and a truce

The Americans see an end to the war as the first thing the parties must achieve. These talks are intertwined with negotiations over the release of more than a hundred hostages captured and held by Hamas and its allies during the October 7 rampage. Hamas has said it will not release the hostages until Israel agrees to a permanent ceasefire, a position that is incompatible with Israel's stated goal to fight until Hamas is removed from Gaza.

Officials from the US, Israel, Egypt and Qatar are discussing a deal that would pause fighting for up to two months. In November, the sides agreed to a brief pause, which led to Hamas releasing more than a hundred hostages.

Under one proposal, hostages would be released in phases over a pause of up to 60 days, in exchange for Palestinians jailed by Israel. Some officials have suggested that Israeli citizens would be released first in exchange for Palestinian women and minors held by Israel. Captured Israeli soldiers would then be exchanged for Palestinian militant leaders serving long prison sentences.

Diplomats from several sides say they hope more detailed discussions can be held during the break on a permanent ceasefire that would include the withdrawal of most or all Israeli troops, the departure of Hamas leaders from the Gaza Strip and a transfer of power to the Palestinian Authority could imply. . For now, Israel and Hamas have each rejected some of these conditions.

To try to move these negotiations forward, William J. Burns, the director of the CIA, plans to meet with leading Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari counterparts in Europe in the coming days.

Some observers hope that the World Court's call Friday for Israel to comply with the Genocide Convention will give momentum and political cover to Israeli officials pushing internally to end the war.

2. Review of the Palestinian Authority

The Palestinian Authority controlled Gaza shortly after Israeli forces left in 2005, but Hamas forced it out of power two years later. Now some want the authority to return to Gaza and play a role in post-war governance. To make that idea more attractive to Israel, which opposes it, there is an effort by the United States, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states to overhaul the authority and change its leadership.

Under the current president, Mahmoud Abbas (88), the authority is widely seen as both corrupt and authoritarian. Mediators are encouraging him to take on a more ceremonial role and cede executive power to a new prime minister, who can oversee Gaza's reconstruction and reduce corruption. U.S. officials say the goal is to make the authority a more plausible administrator of a future Palestinian state. Israeli officials also argue that the authority should change its education system, which they say does not promote peace, and end benefits to those convicted of violence against Israelis.

Some critics of Mr. Abbas want him replaced by Salam Fayyad, a Princeton professor who modernized the authority during his stint as prime minister a decade ago, or by Nasser al-Kidwa, a former Palestinian envoy to the U.N. who broke with Mr Abbas. three years ago. But diplomats say Abbas is pushing for a candidate over whom he has more influence, such as Mohammad Mustafa, his longtime economic adviser.

Some officials have proposed an Arab peacekeeping force to help the new Palestinian leader maintain order in post-war Gaza. Israeli officials reject that idea but have floated the idea of ​​a multinational force under Israeli control in the Gaza Strip. American diplomats told Israelis this month that Arab leaders oppose their idea.

3. Saudi normalization with Israel

In the most ambitious set of talks, the Biden administration has revived talks with Saudi Arabia to get the Saudis to agree to formal diplomatic ties with Israel.

The tripartite agreement had been under discussion before the Oct. 7 attacks, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia appeared susceptible as the Biden administration offered a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty, cooperation on a civilian nuclear program and more. sales of weapons. Under that arrangement, U.S. officials say, the Saudis would have accepted Israel's relatively minor concessions on the Palestinian issue in exchange for Saudi recognition.

That recognition would mark a major political victory for American and Israeli leaders because of Saudi Arabia's status as a leading Arab and Muslim nation.

However, since the war began, Saudi Arabia and the United States have raised the price for Israel, and are now pushing for Israel to commit to a process leading to a Palestinian state that includes Palestinian administration of Gaza. U.S. officials have also told Israelis that Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries would only agree to provide money to rebuild Gaza if Israeli leaders commit to a path to a Palestinian state.

These new terms were first publicly stated by Mr Blinken after he met Prince Mohammed at a desert tent camp in Saudi Arabia this month. He presented them to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel after flying from there to Tel Aviv. He repeated them again in a public lecture in Davos, Switzerland, as did White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

Mr Netanyahu has publicly rejected that proposal – recently pledging to maintain Israeli military control over the entire West Bank and Gaza. Many Israelis support this, although some US officials question whether this is an opening negotiating position by Mr Netanyahu.

To reassure the Saudis and Palestinians, some officials have proposed a U.N. Security Council resolution, backed by the United States, that would establish the Palestinians' right to sovereignty. But the idea still has to gain ground.

There is also the question of whether the Biden administration can deliver a Senate-approved mutual defense treaty to Prince Mohammed. Some Democratic senators have already expressed concerns about this. And Republican senators' chances of opposing it are expected to increase as the U.S. presidential election approaches in November.

Patrick Kingsley reported from Abu Dhabi, and Edward Wong from Washington. Reporting was contributed by Aaron Bokserman, Adam Ragon And Isabel Kershner from Jerusalem; Ronen Bergman from Tel Aviv; Farnaz Fassihi From New York; And Julian E Barnes from Washington.