The heat, a long shot in the playoffs, draws even with long shots
Michael Malone is generally the kind of coach who would leave a negative Yelp review after a vacation in Shangri-La. But his concerns were justified this time.
On Saturday, the day before Game 2 of the NBA Finals, Malone complained about his team’s poor defense in the first game of the series against the Miami Heat. The Nuggets had given the Heat a lot of wide-open three-pointers — a bad sign, Malone said, even though good shooters like Max Strus and Duncan Robinson kept missing and Denver won the game.
On Sunday, Strus and Robinson combined for six of Miami’s 17 three-pointers. On a night when the Heat looked largely outmatched, their 3-point shooting helped them steal a road win to tie the series at one game apiece. Somewhat appropriately, they won by 3 points: 111-108.
“There was miscommunication, game plan glitches, personnel glitches,” Malone grumbled afterwards. He added, “We got lucky in Game 1. Tonight they made them.”
The Heat has frustrated all of their playoff opponents this year by hitting jump shots they missed during the regular season. Most teams over the past decade have focused on generating points from the most efficient shots: three-pointers, free throws, and shots at the basket. Miami followed that trend to some extent, but that was about it one of the worst 3 point shooting teams during the regular season and was more likely to grind points – led by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo – by focusing more on midrange baskets.
That’s probably a doomed strategy against Denver, an offensive juggernaut. The Heat can’t match the play of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon. For the Heat to win, they have to stay hot from 3-point range, just like they did in the postseason.
On Sunday, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said the Heat had been “more deliberate” in their offense, suggesting the plan had been to lean into their 3-point shooting.
‘That doesn’t give you a guarantee,’ said Spoelstra. “But at least you’re giving yourself the best chance.”
The Heat have jumped at their chances this postseason, evidenced by their unlikely run to the NBA Finals as No. 8. Kevin Love, who joined the Heat midway through the season, said he was unaware of the three-point struggle of the team until he came to Miami.
“I always feel like there’s something about closing the door to the regular season,” Love said, adding, “You just get a reset. And I think guys felt that. They just had a different level of confidence and understanding that if we go out there and just be ourselves and play freely and play fluidly, we’re giving ourselves a chance to win.”
During the regular season, Miami was ranked third in shots taken between 10 and 14 feet from the basket, and 10th for shots between five and nine feet. That’s not to say the Heat didn’t shoot enough 3s: they were 10th in attempts per game. They just didn’t make them.
In the second quarter on Sunday night, the Nuggets led by as much as 15. The game was on the verge of a blowout. But Kevin Love, who hadn’t played in the last three games, hit a deep shot to keep the Nuggets in sight. Miami shot 8 for 17 from 3-point range in the first half – keeping the Heat within 6 points of Denver at halftime.
The Heat continued to bomb 3’s and tied the game relatively early in the third quarter. Denver was still leading going into the fourth quarter, but the 3’s helped the Heat keep the game within reach, enabling a comeback.
In the last frame it was Robinson’s turn. His two 3s in the opening minutes cut the Nuggets’ lead to 2. Miami’s eventual win was the seventh of this postseason run after trailing by at least 10 points. It has tied the 2022 Golden State Warriors and the 2011 and 2012 Heat for most double-digit comebacks in a single postseason in the past 25 years.
While the Heat has some strong shooters, they don’t include the team’s best players, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. In addition, guard Tyler Herro, one of the team’s top marksmen, has missed nearly the entire playoff run with a right hand injury.
Miami’s offense often focuses on Adebayo grabbing the ball at the elbow and using his passing skills, or Butler controlling the baseline and using shot fakes and power to create space for himself.
In the playoffs, Miami flipped a switch. Suddenly the three-pointers start falling at an elite clip. Entering Game 2, the Heat were the best 3-point shooting team in the playoffs at 38.7 percent. In the Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics, the Heat shot 43.4 percent of 3 over seven games.
Asked if he had known why the Heat suddenly improved their shooting, Miami reserve center Cody Zeller said he thought the regular season was “inaccurate.”
“The playoffs are more accurate in terms of how good our guys are as shooters,” said Zeller. “We’re not surprised by guys getting shots in the playoffs. We’re more surprised by not getting shots during the regular season.
The 3-pointer, which teams rely on more than ever, is a high variance shot. Fouls can get a lot of open stares, but players still shoot a ball in a circle that’s 10 feet off the ground. You’re more likely to miss them than make them. But if one team gets hot after a few games, it doesn’t matter what the other team does defensively. The Celtics saw that and so did the Nuggets in Game 2.
The Nuggets have more offensive weapons than the Heat. To keep the Heat up, the answer is to keep shooting more and more 3s.
“In terms of the shooters, that’s pretty simple: let it fly. To light. Once they see two drop, it can become three, it can just become six,” said Spoelstra on Saturday, snapping his fingers.
In the regular season, the ideal tactic to defend the Heat was to focus on Butler and Adebayo and chew through the middle, forcing the ball to the perimeter. After all, during the regular season, the Heat fired 34.3 percent – a low count – from 3 on shots considered open, according to NBA stats. No NBA defense can take everything away from an opposing player’s offense.
Strategies are generally meant to push teams towards what they are not very good at. The Celtics did just that, and Miami made them pay at one rate of 42.1 percent on open 3-pointers.
The temptation when a team goes cold on its deep shots is to focus more on getting shots close to the rim. In Game 2, the Heat rarely went to the rim, shooting only 10 times in the restricted area.
Miami goes home with a tie of one game each. Once again the Heat won a playoff game they didn’t expect to win on shots they didn’t take.
“That’s what this game is,” Butler said. “Make or miss game. Make or miss competition. We took some shots. They didn’t.’