Venezuela is trying to crush the opposition campaign before it even begins

It seemed like a small glimmer of hope for democracy supporters after years of authoritarian rule.

The election of an opposition candidate to challenge the Venezuelan president, which followed a government pledge to hold free and fair elections next year, sparked cautious optimism among Venezuelans and international observers about the possibility of finding a path back to find democracy.

But now President Nicolás Maduro’s government is focusing on opposition elections to be held this month, raising concerns that Maduro will resist any serious challenge to his decade-long hold on power, even as his country continues to suffer from international sanctions.

The opposition primaries in Venezuela, a South American country with a population of about 28 million, took place without official government support. Instead, the vote was organized by civil society, with polling stations in homes, parks and opposition party offices.

More than 2.4 million Venezuelans cast their ballots, an impressive number that suggests how engaged voters could be in the 2024 general elections.

But in the days that followed, the president of the Maduro-controlled legislature has claimed voter turnout was too high, calling organizers “thieves” and “con artists” and calling the election a “farce.”

“The primaries sent a clear message that the Venezuelan people are fundamentally deeply democratic,” said Tamara Taraciuk Broner, who researches Venezuela for the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based research organization. “And if they have the opportunity to vote, they will express themselves through the vote. And that is a huge challenge for those in power.”

The office of the Attorney General of Venezuela announced last week that it is investigating seventeen members of the national and regional commissions overseeing the elections, on allegations of violation of electoral functions, identity theft, money laundering and criminal associations.

If the attorney general files criminal charges, the defendants face a trial and possible prison time.

And on Monday, the country’s Supreme Court issued a ruling effectively annulling the primaries. But since the government played no role in the election, it is not clear what the practical effect will be or what the ruling will mean in the future.

“All effects of the various phases of the electoral process carried out by the National Primary Committee are suspended,” the ruling said.

Juan Manuel Rafalli, a constitutional lawyer in Venezuela, said the attorney general’s office will likely ask primary election organizers to hand over documents it will use to try to invalidate the election results or order a new one. to call.

“They have unleashed all the legal machinery under their control in an attempt to undo the events,” Mr Rafalli said. “Don’t look for a legal explanation for this, because you won’t find one.”

Maduro took power in 2013, following the death of Hugo Chávez, who had led a socialist-inspired revolution in the late 1990s. Under Mr. Maduro, Venezuela, whose vast oil reserves have made it one of Latin America’s richest countries, is in an economic freefall that has sparked a humanitarian crisis. About seven million Venezuelans – a quarter of the population – have left the country.

Maduro’s government and the opposition signed an agreement last month aimed at moving the country toward free and fair elections, including allowing the opposition to choose a candidate for next year’s presidential election.

María Corina Machado, a center-right candidate and former member of the Venezuelan legislature, won with 93 percent of the vote in a 10-candidate race.

But Maduro’s government has barred her from running for office for 15 years, claiming she failed to complete her assets and income declaration while she was a lawmaker. It is a tactic that Maduro often uses to keep strong competitors from voting.

Ms. Machado is a veteran politician, nicknamed “the Iron Lady” because of her hostile relations with the governments of Mr. Maduro and Mr. Chávez. If Ms. Machado were to run, some analysts say, she could probably defeat Maduro.

But her tough stances and her insistence on holding members of the Maduro government criminally responsible for human rights abuses could also make it less likely that the government would let her take power.

“It is a contradiction to sign an agreement and then, in the days that follow, violate the first points of the agreement,” she said. in a speech Thursday, citing investigations by primary election organizers.

The Biden administration has lifted some sanctions on Venezuela’s crucial oil industry in response to some recent overtures from Mr. Maduro, including accepting Venezuelans deported from the United States and releasing a handful of political prisoners.

But the government also expects Venezuela to reinstate candidates who are barred from running in national elections or who face sanctions reinstatement.

The US State Department said it was aware of the Venezuelan Supreme Court’s decision regarding the opposition primaries and urged Maduro’s government to stick to its commitment to hold credible elections next year .

“The United States and the international community are closely monitoring the implementation of the electoral roadmap, and the U.S. government will take action if Maduro and his representatives fail to meet their obligations,” the statement said.

Two other members of the national committee that organized the opposition elections, and who are not under investigation, criticized the legitimacy of the Maduro government’s decision.

“They were not aware of the level of participation that would take place and I think it surprised them and us,” said Víctor Márquez, member of the committee. “It is clear that the current government has no chance of winning the elections.”

Pedro Benítez, a Venezuelan political analyst, said Maduro’s government was following a familiar playbook in its efforts to quell threats to its power.

“What they are trying to do is raise the bar to prevent her from being chosen as a candidate,” Mr. Benítez said, referring to Ms. Machado. “The goal is to discourage the opposition, to divide the opposition, to create conflict within the opposition, to demoralize its base.”

“That’s the first phase,” he added. “Then comes the next phase, which will be the direct offensive against the process.”