March Madness makes picks: Bracket Breakers picks the 10 most likely first-round stunners

Welcome back to Bracket Breakers! We know you missed us, and we can’t wait to wow you with our unique take on NCAA Tournaments, powered by our proprietary statistical model, Slingshot. Hopefully you have been following our work for years. But if you’re new to Bracket Breakers, here’s the latest explanation of who we are, what we do, and the state of Slingshot.

In the coming days, we’ll be offering in-depth regional previews of every first-round matchup that qualifies as a Bracket Breaker game (meaning there must be a difference of at least five seeds). We will also provide the upset odds for every possible second round match on Wednesday. You don’t want to fill out a bracket or place a moneyline bet without checking out that piece!

But now that you’re starting to digest the bracket, we wanted to provide a quick list of the 10 most likely first-round upsets. We swear we have nothing against the Palmetto State — Furman professors Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson provide the math behind Slingshot, after all — but our model is certainly not bullish on South Carolina’s two power conference teams. .

As always, Slingshot looks at teams separated by at least five seeds, estimates their base strengths, adjusts those power ratings based on how well each team fits the statistical profiles of previous Davids or Goliaths, and then readjusts them to account for matchups . This year we upgraded our cluster analysis. And without further ado, the top results.

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10 most likely upsets in the first round

1. No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 New Mexico Lobos

Chance of upset: 57.8 percent

2. No. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 11 Oregon Ducks

Chance of upset: 43.2 percent

3. No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack

Chance of upset: 38.2 percent

4. No. No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys

Chance of upset: 30.8 percent

5. No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon Lopes

Chance of upset: 30.4 percent

6. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs

Chance of upset: 30.1 percent

7. No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 12 UAB Blazers

Chance of upset: 27.8 percent

8. No. No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 Duquesne Dukes

Chance of upset: 24.8 percent

9. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 James Madison Dukes

Chance of upset: 24.4 percent

10. No. No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Akron Zips

Chance of upset: 20.4 percent

Thanks to John Harris, Kevin Hutson, and Liz Bouzarth of Furman University for research assistance.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletics; Photo of Jaelen House in New Mexico: Ian Maule/Getty Images; Photo of Gabe McGlothan from the Grand Canyon: Ian Maule / AP)