What to watch for during the Michigan primaries

When President Biden made Michigan one of the first states on the Democratic Party’s presidential nominating calendar, he expanded the political clout of a populous, diverse battleground state.

That decision more than a year ago has led to the most significant test of Biden’s standing within his party since he was elected, as an effort to protest his support for Israel threatens what his allies had expected would be a simple primary campaign.

Biden is still widely expected to win Michigan’s Democratic primary by a significant margin on Tuesday. But a homegrown campaign to convince Michiganders to vote “unfettered” will gauge the resistance he faces among Arab Americans, young voters, progressives and other Democrats to his position on the Gaza war.

A large number of “uncommitted” votes would be a warning for his campaign nationally and set off alarms in Michigan, which he won in 2020 but where polls show weakness against former President Donald J. Trump. A low number, on the other hand, would give Biden and his Democratic allies renewed confidence that he can weather the tensions and focus on campaign priorities like the economy and abortion rights.

The lack of reliable public polling has made the outcome uncertain and helped turn the primaries into a night of sweat for Biden’s allies.

“I’m going to look at the Democratic turnout, and that will tell me whether I should be concerned,” Rep. Haley Stevens of Michigan said in an interview Monday. “On Wednesday we will know how deep this is.”

Republicans are also holding their primaries, although many more delegates will be at stake Saturday during a nominating convention — or conventions — hosted by a state Republican party at war with itself. Trump is the heavy favorite in both contests over his last remaining main rival, Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina.

More than a million early and absentee votes have already been cast during Michigan’s primary, according to Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. But that data did not show how ballots were distributed between each party’s primaries.

Here’s what to watch for during the Michigan primaries.

How many Democratic votes go to ‘uncommitted’?

The Arab-American-led group that started the no-strings-attached campaign, Listen to Michigan, three weeks ago has set a modest goal: 10,000 votes.

In context, there were approximately 20,000 “voluntary” votes in each of the last two Democratic presidential primaries in Michigan, which featured robust and competitive fields.

With Mr. Biden facing only a token challenge from Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota, the “uncommitted” count will be interpreted as a vote of no confidence in Mr. Biden over his Gaza policy or other intraparty grievances.

Our Revolution, the progressive group founded by supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, has targeted 10 percent of the primary electorate. (Mr. Sanders himself supports Mr. Biden and, a spokeswoman said, rejects the Uncomposed campaign.)

Biden’s allies tried to stem the momentum against him in the final days of the campaign. A pro-Israel group introduced a series of digital ads supporting the president and warning that uncommitted voting would help Mr. Trump. Mr Biden said on Monday he hoped to broker a ceasefire within a week, under which Israel would halt military operations in Gaza in return for the release of at least some of the more than 100 hostages held by Hamas held.

“My national security adviser tells me we are close, we are close, we are not done yet,” he told reporters in New York. “I hope we have a ceasefire next Monday.”

Mr. Biden’s campaign has refused to engage in primary predictions beyond claiming he will win no matter what Listen to Michigan leaders predict. But his allies in Michigan and beyond are bracing for the possibility of a tough night, with the more pessimistic among them suggesting “uncommitted” could reach well into double digits.

Will the Biden team’s relatively light presence in Michigan matter?

When the Biden campaign looked to boost its tally in South Carolina, which put the president at the front of the party’s nomination calendar, it sent a fleet of surrogates, including Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the leader of the Democratic House of Representatives, to the state to to drum up. support. Vice President Kamala Harris closed the campaign on election eve with an energetic rally in front of a few hundred supporters.

The Biden team’s footprint in Michigan was lighter.

In Ms. Harris’ final preseason appearance in Michigan, she met with nine allies in Grand Rapids last week — a move necessitated by fears that protesters in Gaza would disrupt her focus on abortion rights. Mr. Biden last visited the state on Feb. 1, where he spoke at a small gathering with union auto workers and stopped by a restaurant. Protesters demonstrated outside his events anyway.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer appeared at a half-dozen events for Mr. Biden this month, and her political action committee organized another 20, but the most prominent out-of-state campaign surrogates standing for Mr. Biden in Michigan were Sen. Amy Klobuchar. of Minnesota and Mitch Landrieu, the former mayor of New Orleans and campaign co-chairman. Pete Buttigieg, the transportation secretary, who now lives in Michigan, also promoted Mr. Biden in the state.

The White House this month sent a high-level team to a private meeting with Arab-American officials in Dearborn, where a senior foreign policy official acknowledged “missteps” over the administration’s foreign policy and public reporting of the conflict in Gaza.

Other potential Biden surrogates were asked to travel to Michigan but declined because they did not want to engage with protesters in Gaza, according to people familiar with the negotiations. The Biden campaign declined to comment for this article.

Representative Ro Khanna of California, typically one of Mr. Biden’s most energetic supporters, came to the state without the Biden campaign’s branding, though he did authorize his trip. He hosted a “ceasefire town hall” on the University of Michigan campus and then appeared with Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan – the only member of the state’s congressional delegation to support the “uncommitted” campaign .

Will ‘uncommitted’ voters come back to Biden in November?

The movement’s leaders insist they do not want to hurt Mr. Biden in the general election, but hope to convince him that his position on Israel will hurt him politically in time for him to correct himself.

“There is a risk that Biden will lose Michigan in November,” said Layla Elabed, campaign manager for Listen to Michigan. “Hopefully the numbers after the primaries will be significant enough for Joe Biden to listen to Michigan.”

Ms. Elabed and others involved with Listen to Michigan have argued that most Democrats protesting Mr. Biden’s Israel policies will support him in November — as long as he changes course on the issue. Other Michigan activists have said Biden should go further and reduce U.S. military aid to Israel. A group of Armenian Americans did also calls for a “non-committed” vote to protest the treatment of ethnic Armenians living in Azerbaijan.

How many Democratic primary dissidents will come back to Mr. Biden in November in a likely battle with Mr. Trump remains an open question.

“Joe Biden can get the vast majority of these people to vote for him if he changes course,” said former Rep. Andy Levin of Michigan, who has supported and campaigned for the “unaligned” movement. “If he doesn’t change course, there’s nothing I can do to get people to vote for him.”

Ms. Haley arrived in Michigan after nearly a month of focusing on the South Carolina primary but losing to Mr. Trump by 20 percentage points in her home state, without much momentum. Her largest outside benefactor, the Koch political network, announced it would end support for her.

Michigan has an open primary system, meaning Democrats can vote for Ms. Haley, just like in other states — but given the outsized focus on how Mr. Biden performs in his primaries, Ms. Haley may not be able to count on that. kind of support this time.

Still, the primary could be Ms. Haley’s high point in Michigan, as most of the state’s delegates to the Republican National Convention will be awarded at a party convention scheduled for Saturday. Convention delegates tend to be more committed to Trump than to the broader Republican primary electorate.

But this, too, is more complicated than meets the eye: A rift among Michigan Republicans has led to dueling conventions led by the two people who each claim to be the party leader.

Ms. Haley has continued to argue during her campaign stops in Michigan that Mr. Trump will lose the general election — a message very similar to what “disengaged” supporters are predicting about Mr. Biden if he does not change course. the war between Israel and Gaza.

Jasmine Ulloa reporting contributed.