Murders, in decline
When murder rates peaked three years ago, experts feared that the US was sliding into a violent era reminiscent of the period between the 1970s and 1990s. But this year’s data offers hope that the increase was temporary.
kill this year are down more than 12 percent in major cities (where recent data are most reliable), after also falling slightly last year. The number of murders is still about 10 percent higher than in 2019, but the trend is certainly moving in the right direction.
The declines are a sign that at least two of the issues that likely contributed to the homicide spike — Covid and the fallout from George Floyd’s murder — are disappearing. As much of life has returned to normal after a highly unusual 2020, crime trends are also starting to shift back.
Policy also seems to have played a role as cities have moved to hire more police officers and embrace new anti-violence strategies. Combined, these forces have created the possibility that 2023 will bring one of the largest homicide declines since the US began tracking national statistics more than 60 years ago.
Explanation of the drop
Let’s look at the three explanations – Covid, Floyd’s death and policy changes – one by one, starting with the pandemic.
Among the many aspects of life that Covid turned upside down were social services that help keep people out of trouble, such as the police, schools, workplaces and addiction services. As those services have returned, so have their potentially protective effects.
Some experts are skeptical of Covid’s explanation, as other countries did not see a major increase in homicides during the pandemic. But Americans have far more guns than their peers around the world, potentially putting them at greater risk of violence when much of society is turned upside down.
The second explanation: More time has passed since Floyd’s death at the hands of police in 2020, straining relations between law enforcement and their communities.
How does this species contribute to crime? After high-profile murders, some officers are retreating from proactive practices that protect people. The public is becoming more reluctant to cooperate with the police. And with less faith in the justice system, some Americans are instead resorting to violence to resolve conflicts.
These patterns have occurred before. Between 2014 and 2016, homicides also increased after police in Ferguson, Mo., publicized murders of black men; Baltimore; and elsewhere. This year, Memphis is among a minority of major cities where homicides have increased — and officers were also charged in Memphis for beating and killing Tire Nichols in January. However, in most cities this dynamic seems to have diminished since 2020.
The third explanation for the drop in homicides is government policy: many places have recently increased their investment in police and other anti-violence programs. Cities have used Covid relief money to bolster their law enforcement ranks, and some have received federal dollars for community-led efforts to end the violence. In Baltimore, a new strategy to target police and other resources at people with a history of violence seems to be paying offas The Baltimore Banner reported.
What we don’t know
Experts warn that these three explanations are not proven. And it’s possible that the rest of the year will be more violent than the first half. “I think it’s a bit premature to draw strong conclusions about what it all means,” said Jeff Asher, a crime analyst who tracks homicides in major cities.
The lack of certainty is characteristic of discussions about crime. Crime rates fell sharply from the 1990s. But decades later, after much research, no consensus has emerged as to why the violence declined. Crime is an incredibly complicated subject, involving personal disputes, the economy, social services, the political system and more. A few decades, let alone a few years, is typically too little time to definitively explain a trend.
Yet we know that the number of homicides in major cities has decreased since last year. As a result of that decrease, the lives of hundreds of Americans are spared each month.
A note to readers: David Leonhardt is off this week.
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