For Netanyahu, the Gaza dispute with Biden offers risk and reward

A day after President Biden issued his strongest criticism of the Israeli government since the start of the war in Gaza, many Israelis on Wednesday moved past the public rift, with some suggesting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could gain political advantage from escalating a fight with the Americans. leader.

The disagreement between Israel and its closest ally over what a post-war Gaza should look like poses risks for Netanyahu’s government, analysts said. This raises questions about how long the United States will continue to provide unfettered support to the invasion of Gaza. But it also offers Netanyahu an opportunity to restore his deteriorating domestic ratings by presenting himself as a leader who will not bend to foreign demands.

“He is looking at a possible election campaign in a few months,” said Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington. “This will be his platform: ‘I am the leader who can stand up to Biden and prevent a Palestinian state.’”

On Tuesday, in some of his sharpest comments on Israel’s handling of a war that has killed thousands of civilians, Mr Biden said Israel risks losing international support over its “indiscriminate bombing” of Gaza. He also criticized Netanyahu’s far-right government, which he said “doesn’t want anything even close to a two-state solution” to the country’s long-running conflict with the Palestinians.

The Biden administration has proposed that the Palestinian Authority, the body that governs parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, also take control of Gaza after the war as part of a process that could lead to a Palestinian state. But hours before Mr. Biden spoke on Tuesday, Mr. Netanyahu all but ruled that out, rejecting the idea of ​​turning Gaza into what he called “Fatahstan,” a reference to the Palestinian group Fatah, which controls the Palestinian Authority.

“Yes, there is disagreement about ‘the day after Hamas,’” Mr. Netanyahu said.

That dispute will provide the backdrop to an upcoming visit to Israel by Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, who is expected to arrive in Jerusalem later this week to discuss the war and its aftermath with Mr Netanyahu.

The Prime Minister’s Office declined to comment for this article.

Israeli commentators discussed whether Mr. Netanyahu’s accusation could encourage the Biden administration to set modest limits on the United States’ support for Israel, which includes billions of dollars in annual aid; ammunition; diplomatic cover at the United Nations; and – so far at least – full support for the invasion.

But these issues may be of secondary importance to Mr. Netanyahu for now as he tries to rebuild his declining popularity, Mr. Rabinovich said. The prime minister’s security credentials have been badly damaged by his government’s failure to prevent the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, which killed an estimated 1,200 people and led to the kidnapping of about 240 others.

For his critics, Netanyahu’s failure to take full responsibility for the disaster has heightened the sense that the prime minister has placed his personal interests above those of the state. Netanyahu’s refusal to step down, despite being prosecuted on corruption charges, divided the country, caused massive political instability and led to five elections in less than four years.

Since October 7, Mr. Netanyahu’s right-wing party, Likud, has fallen far behind that of his main rival, Benny Gantz, a former military chief who — in an effort to promote national unity — joined Mr. Netanyahu’s Cabinet joined for the duration of the war. The latest poll, published on Monday by Channel 13, one of Israel’s main television channels, showed that Mr Gantz’s party would quickly win 37 seats, far ahead of the 18 seats expected by Likud. achieve.

And a survey conducted last month by the Jewish People Policy Institute found that 55 percent of respondents had high confidence in Mr. Gantz, compared with just 32 percent for Mr. Netanyahu.

Analysts say Netanyahu is now trying to win back the support of longtime Likud voters by doubling down on traditional right-wing policy positions, such as opposing a Palestinian state and rejecting the Oslo Accords, the interim peace accords between Israelis and Palestinians that led to its creation of the Palestinian Authority.

“I will not allow Israel to repeat Oslo’s mistake,” Netanyahu said in a statement on Tuesday. “Gaza will be neither Hamastan nor Fatahstan.”

In previous elections, Mr. Netanyahu won public support by portraying himself as the only leader experienced enough to protect Israel from numerous foreign threats, and as the politician best placed to preserve Israel’s relationship with the United States hold. The October 7 debacle, coupled with Netanyahu’s rising tensions with Biden, have forced the prime minister to find a different approach, according to Nahum Barnea, a veteran commentator for Yediot Ahronot, a centrist Israeli newspaper.

“He failed as Mr. Security and he failed as Mr. America,” Barnea wrote in a column on Wednesday. “Maybe he’ll succeed as Mr. Never Palestine.’

Despite their differences on other issues, Mr. Biden has offered staunch public support for Mr. Netanyahu’s main war goals: the removal of Hamas and the freedom of Gaza’s hostages. And even amid his criticism on Tuesday, Mr. Biden renewed his pledge to help Israel “finish the job” against Hamas.

Last week, his government vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire. But amid mounting domestic criticism of Biden’s support for Israel, U.S. officials have pressed the country to reduce civilian casualties. More than 15,000 Palestinians – possibly thousands more – have been killed so far, according to health officials in Gaza.

On Wednesday, a day after Mr. Biden’s comments, a White House spokesman dodged questions about whether the United States had formally concluded that the bombing of Israel was indiscriminate, which could be a war crime under international law.

U.S. officials have also pressured Israel to allow more aid to Gaza amid major food, water and fuel shortages there and the near collapse of the territory’s health care system.

As the differences between the countries become increasingly public, Israeli commentators have wondered whether Mr. Biden could pressure Mr. Netanyahu to stop the invasion sooner than the Israeli military wants, or stop vetoing U.N. resolutions that be unfavorable to Israel.

Mr. Biden “is now watching the war with a stopwatch in hand,” Mr. Barnea wrote. “Another week, another two weeks. The clock is ticking.”

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York, said in an interview that Mr. Biden would have “no choice but to relinquish his position” if Mr. Netanyahu did not do more to address American concerns .

“History shows that whenever an American president had a dispute with Israel but explained it in terms of American interests, the American public supported their position,” Mr. Pinkas added.

Mr Netanyahu has a history of changing positions under US pressure.

During his first term as prime minister in the 1990s, he continued the Oslo process, even handing control of parts of the West Bank to the Palestinian Authority, despite fiercely opposing such moves when he was in opposition .

During his second term a decade later, Netanyahu responded to pressure from the Obama administration by agreeing to a months-long freeze on West Bank settlement construction and resuming peace negotiations with Palestinian leaders. And in 2009, he gave a speech outlining the conditions under which he would accept the creation of a Palestinian state.

“Bibi has no problem changing course,” said former ambassador Rabinovich, referring to the prime minister by his nickname.

“The one guiding principle,” Mr. Rabinovich said, “is: ‘I must stay in power.’ If he concludes that remaining in power requires a change of course on this issue, he will do so.”

Jonathan Reiss contributed reporting from Tel Aviv, and Rawan Sheikh Ahmad from Haifa, Israel.