Failed wind deal and abortion rights loom over tight races in New Jersey

The news came as a bombshell a week before the crucial legislative races in New Jersey: Orsted, a Danish company hired to build two wind farms off the South Jersey coast, abruptly abandoned the project.

Overnight, a linchpin of Governor Philip D. Murphy’s clean energy plan disappeared, sparking finger-pointing among his fellow Democrats who are fighting to maintain control of the Legislature, and I told you so of the Republicans, who had opposed the law. offshore wind projects.

Orsted cited broad economic forces, including higher construction costs, as a reason for withdrawing, but that was true retain the rights to the lease of the seabed, which prevented New Jersey from immediately bringing in another company to develop the site.

“The Republicans are going to take a victory lap,” said Jeff Tittel, a longtime environmental activist from New Jersey who supports offshore wind farm development, “while the Democrats have egg on their faces.”

In 2021, with Mr. Murphy on top, Republicans gained seven seats in the Legislature, which Democrats control, as voters, angry about the state’s Covid-19 mandates, turned out in droves. Stephen M. Sweeney, a Democrat who was president of the state Senate at the time, lost to Edward Durr Jr., a conservative first-time candidate.

Republicans hope to make even more gains on Tuesday when voters go to the polls, while Democrats try to regain lost ground. Some Republicans have speculated about the possibility of toppling the Assembly or Senate, something that hasn’t happened in two decades and would require virtually every competitive race to find its way.

All 120 legislative seats are on the ballot. Democrats have a 46-34 majority in the General Assembly and a 25-15 lead in the Senate.

“We’re close enough to the target,” Alexandra Wilkes, a spokeswoman for the Republican Party of New Jersey, said of winning a majority, “but we have to hit the arrows right every time.”

There are very competitive races in South Jersey, in Legislative Districts 3 and 4; along the Jersey Shore, in District 11; near Princeton, in District 16; and in Bergen County District 38.

A lawsuit filed Thursday and the allegations underlying it illustrate how high each side considers the stakes.

In the lawsuit, filed in Atlantic County, Republicans asked a judge to take steps to weaken what they said was a dirty trick campaign by Democrats in the Fourth Legislative District. The complaint named “ghost candidates,” who plaintiffs alleged were on the ballot solely to siphon Republican votes.

On Friday, a judge blocked future spending by a group that funded Democratic candidates. Ms Wilkes said Republicans were pleased the court had recognized the “serious breach of public trust”.

Much of the campaign rhetoric focused on cultural wedge issues, including the right to abortion and whether schools should be required to tell parents about the way students express their gender. State policies intended to reduce residents’ dependence on gas-fired stoves and vehicles have also been used by Republicans to energize their base. Orsted’s announcement amplified that rallying cry.

Assembly Republicans produced one mocking video. Sen. Michael Testa, a South Jersey Republican who represents coastal communities where opposition to wind energy is strongest, called the Orsted deal a “baggery.”

Vote on mail started over a month ago, and early machine voting has been taking place for the past two weeks. However, with no statewide polling station available, election day turnout is expected to be low.

LeRoy J. Jones Jr., chairman of the New Jersey Democratic State Committee, said the party’s focus this cycle was on expanding its base by adding “younger and less consistent voters.”

“It’s all about voting now,” Mr. Jones said on Tuesday.

In the 2021 legislative elections, Mr. Murphy, who governed as a staunch liberal during his first term, became the first Democratic governor of New Jersey in 44 years to win re-election. But he won by just three percentage points.

Since then, he has governed more moderately and regularly speaks about affordability. In June, he signed a bill that aims to cut property taxes by 50 percent for most older homeowners starting in 2026. Democrats have featured the tax cut prominently in their campaigns.

A loss or significant erosion of the Democratic majority in both houses could be politically damaging for Mr. Murphy in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans. almost a million voters.

It could also cloud the political prospects of his wife, Tammy Murphy, who is expected to join the race for Sen. Robert Menendez’s seat as soon as next week. Mrs Murphy, who advocates for reproductive rights, joined her husband at an event last week where he promoted a new website where residents can get information about abortion services.

Several Democratic lawmakers in tight races attended the event, a sign of how strongly they believe reproductive rights could be an issue this year.

Sen. Joseph Lagana, a Democrat, said voters seemed concerned that abortion rights could be curtailed in New Jersey, where the procedure remains legal, after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

“It is a very real problem,” Mr Lagana said. “It’s a driving factor.”