NFL coaches pick the Super Bowl winner: Why they think Kansas City has the edge

For the second season in a row, the Kansas City Chiefs enter the Super Bowl as underdogs. They defeated the favored Philadelphia Eagles last season and will try to eliminate the favored San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

Will it feel like a disappointment if Kansas City lets it happen? The Chiefs have the ultimate edge in quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is healthier this season than last and has played brilliantly through most of the playoffs.

Every year around this time I ask a collection of NFL coaches which team they're picking to win the Super Bowl and why. Our panel did quite well last season, with the first coach correctly picking the Chiefs to win by three.

Four coaches made their predictions this year. We continue the conversation with a defensive coach's insights on what bothers 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, and whether the Chiefs are well-equipped to exploit this particular vulnerability.

Defensive coach

The Fighting Taylor Swifts are playing better defense than the Niners right now, and that could be the difference. San Francisco needs to play better defense to win. The 49ers are still dangerous and violent, but they are giving up more yards and plays. I think they'll play pretty well, but if you ask my gut, I still think Kansas City will pull it out.

Impacting Brock Purdy is one of the biggest keys to this game. The teams that give Purdy problems are the ones that can impact him in the pocket. Cleveland was able to do that. Detroit couldn't influence him that way, but the Chiefs could. They do a really good job of getting their hands up. That's a big deal against Brock. They may very well do their best to influence not only the longer throws, but also the faster throws at all different launch angles.

Purdy's strength is how strong his lower body is. George Kittle's quote was very funny when he said that Purdy looks like one of those little water dragons that run on the water. That's exactly what Purdy looks like. His legs are strong as hell. But if you can push the bag to his front foot, he struggles. It's hard to get there because they throw fast sometimes, but I think the Chiefs are capable of doing that.

When people get to Purdy's front foot, the ball will track and drag or drift. Like the one he threw in the belly of the Packer man. He couldn't fully rotate his hips and it was floating. Influencing Purdy in this way is easier said than done. The 49ers know what they're doing, and Purdy is really good, and Kyle can call it good, but I think the Chiefs with four (rushers) can do that sometimes.

(Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo) is going to apply pressure and also play his two-high combination coverages. It's hard to play combination coverage when the 49ers are taking everyone out. They have positionless players. (Christian) McCaffrey will be a wideout, Deebo (Samuel) will be in the backfield and 44 (Kyle Juszczyk) will be everywhere. If you play them in split-safe defense and they can see it and get it out, the matchups can be very good.

The Chiefs don't always tackle well when you get them in space. Steve has done such a good job this year of not letting that happen. In other years you could isolate their boys. All of Kyle's boys are 6-foot-4 or 6-foot-4 and can run with big hands and anger after contact. That would be their advantage if they can find ways around the D-line and then get those guys going.

I also think San Francisco will attack the edges in the run game, like Kyle did with Atlanta versus New England in the Super Bowl. If you can explore the interior of Kansas City and force guys other than (Justin) Reid to tackle, you can do a number of things. But you have to bypass their big boys. I think Kyle will find a way to do that, but I trust the Chiefs a little more.

Defensive Coordinator No. 1

This is going to be a very interesting game because Spags has the defense rolling, and I think it's going to cause problems. They will be able to come after Brock Purdy. Spags will come up with some good plans to at least make Purdy think and disrupt his rhythm.

The 49ers, that whole team is built on a front-running mentality. When they play with an edge, they just jump on and they're better, they're more athletic, their talent shines. When they play from the back, it's usually different. They came back against Detroit. I give them credit for that, but Detroit screwed that up royally. What happened was not worth repeating.

What you need to do with the 49ers is match them early. I grabbed the ball and tried to score. Green Bay did that. I know it's only 7-0 too early and that doesn't matter, but if you score early, you don't react to it.

Mahomes will make the right plays when necessary. He protected the ball, which he hadn't done very often in the first half of the season. People need to honor Rashee Rice right now. He has developed. MVS (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) has become more consistent.

The 49ers defense has shown throughout the playoffs that they will move the ball on them. They don't have many answers. If you hit their weak spots and don't get their rushers going and they don't get takeaways, you'll be fine. The coverage system is not extensive. They have one good corner and one safety who plays very well.

When you have a guy like Andy Reid there with Patrick Mahomes, they're going to find those weak spots. Andy is okay with taking 5 yards from Travis Kelce on a catch-and-run. It's just hard to argue against Reid and Mahomes.

Defensive Coordinator No. 2

The better team is probably San Francisco, but the Eagles were probably a better team last year and it came down to Patrick Mahomes.

For San Francisco, a big part of it is game flow. That's not to say Brock Purdy can't come from behind. I'm not trying to say that. But I think they're a team that has a much better chance of winning if they play their game, while the Chiefs might find a way to win a little bit better in every type of game.

That's what happened in 2019 when those teams played. Kansas City was down by two scores, and is suddenly up by two scores in the fourth quarter. It was incredible.

San Francisco came back to beat Green Bay and Detroit, but they were drastically better than those teams, especially Detroit. In my opinion, Detroit is not a team that can hang with San Francisco. The fact that Detroit couldn't put that game away shows how much better San Francisco was as a team.

I could tell San Fran's defense wasn't dominant against the Chiefs. I don't know if they are a dominant defense like they are with DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh. It doesn't feel like they all are. Deep down I say Chiefs.

The 49ers offense is difficult to defend because they have skilled guys who can create yards after the catch and they have a quarterback who can read the defense very quickly and put the ball in place with accuracy. Their dropback game is very timing-based, while Kansas City is not.

Mahomes' ability to play on or off the schedule could be the difference. What makes Mahomes good is that he's a great off-schedule quarterback who doesn't have to play off-schedule to be great. I always felt that was the case with Russell Wilson. When everyone said he was great, I felt that to be a high-level quarterback you still have to be able to throw on time. Mahome's can do that.

Purdy isn't running badly on schedule because he's a bit slippery. He just doesn't play that much out of time. Mahomes is out of elite time, and I think that's Kansas City's advantage.

Offensive coach

Kansas City surprisingly has the ball pretty well with (Isiah) Pacheco, and they're more willing to run the ball, and I think that does take some pressure off Mahomes. It has served their defense well. That has probably made them a more complete team.

San Francisco gave up 280 yards against Detroit in the first half. Maybe they were surprised by Detroit, but they still haven't figured out how to slow down perimeter runs. Pacheco is a slasher, and if you got him on the edge, I think he would be good, despite being more of an inside runner.

Detroit kept pinning the ends and throwing the ball, and the 49ers secondary was late in supporting. I'm sure San Francisco will make an adjustment for the crack toss games. They just need to support someone faster. That's not a huge adjustment, but they'll likely be reluctant to do so because of Mahomes.

I love Kansas City. I want to like San Francisco, but I think the quarterback matchup in these games is pretty big, and this is a big divide between these guys.

Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, those two guys could be enough to overcome that, but I don't think so in this game.

Final thoughts

If the 49ers win, someone involved with their team will surely argue that no one gave them a chance. It won't be a huge task, despite the oddsmakers favoring the 49ers, because so many people in and around the game are picking the Chiefs. I won Kansas City by a 24-20 margin in our personnel pick. It wasn't so much a pick against the 49ers as it was a fear of picking against Mahomes. I've been by his side every week of the playoffs. Why stop now?

(Top photos of Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy: Patrick Smith, Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)