NJ Transit wants a big fare increase. Riders want better service.

Unlike many of his fellow New Jerseyans, Ian Whelan seems too polite to voice his complaints about the state's much-maligned commuter rail line. But a new plan to increase train fares by 15 percent put him down.

Mr. Whelan, whose wife, Tamara, regularly rides New Jersey Transit to and from her job at Carnegie Hall, posted on social media last week calling on Gov. Philip D. Murphy to improve service before charging commuters to pay more.

“It just feels like it's become more and more unreliable,” he said afterward calling the governor. “If it felt like it was going in the right direction, maybe it would be a little more justified.”

Mr. Murphy's response sounded like a repetition of, “Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?”

Improvements in reliability, safety and on-time performance, the governor said last week, justify proposing to raise rates for the first time since he took office six years ago. Just days earlier, he had told a group of bond analysts that the state had “fixed NJ Transit through the customer lens in many ways.”

But New Jersey Transit's own numbers and customer surveys reflect a different view of the agency's operations.

At the same time the agency is pushing for a fare increase, New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority is making final preparations to implement a congestion pricing plan that would impose a significant toll on every driver entering Manhattan below 60th Street. The plan would mean that most New Jersey travelers, whether they take the train or drive into Manhattan, could soon be pressured for more money.

On a scale of 1 to 10, the average overall rating of New Jersey Transit riders last spring was 6.9. (That was still an improvement from an average of 5.8 five years ago.)

The agency's self-reported statistics show that it has achieved its goal of running 94.7 percent of its trains on time in just three of the past 36 months.

In contrast, New York's Metro-North Railroad reported that its commuter rail service east of the Hudson River had met that standard for all 36 months. The Long Island Rail Road said this was the case for 25 of them.

In addition, New Jersey Transit's trains are canceled much more often than those of the region's other commuter railroads. In 2022, the last year for that federal data was available, the agency had 455 mechanical failures, up from 409 in 2021. The LIRR, which carries more passengers, had 97. Metro-North, which carries almost as many passengers, had just 75.

On Wednesday, MTA CEO Janno Lieber broke normal protocols and took a swipe at Mr. Murphy, saying, “Phil Murphy said he would fix NJ Transit if it killed him. I'm not sure. He's not dying, and I'm not even sure he's trying.” New Jersey officials have attacked the MTA's congestion pricing plan, which will help pay for improvements to New York's subway system, as an unfair burden on New Jersey commuters.

After New Jersey Transit announced the proposed fare increase, some passengers at Newark Penn Station noted their dissatisfaction with the system's service.

“My commute is the same beast I've had to deal with for years,” says Julianne Austin, who lives in Manalapan, NJ and works in Newark. She wondered how her rates were being spent, given the frequency of delays.

“You have to build it into your brain that if you have to be somewhere at an exact time, it's not going to happen,” Ms. Austin, 28, said. “If you're a true Type A personality, you're going to have an aneurysm.”

Mohammad Ayoubi, waiting to board a Raritan Valley Line train from Manhattan to South Plainfield, NJ, was more blunt.

“The delays, the cancellations out of the blue – it's absolute nonsense,” said Mr Ayoubi, a nurse, adding: “If I don't get to work on time, people are going to die.”

Last week's proposal to increase fares by 15 percent on July 1 — and by 3 percent annually starting in 2025 — drew strong opposition from elected officials and transit advocates, who said the state must find other revenue sources to cover the to solve the agency's impending problems. budget deficits.

New Jersey Transit received $4.4 billion in aid from the federal government after the pandemic sharply reduced ridership, but most of that money has already been spent.

The agency says commuters have largely returned to trains and buses, albeit in smaller numbers on Monday and Friday. But last year the agency brought in about half as many riders as it did before the pandemic.

Because many customers still work from home at least a few days a week, the agency sells far fewer monthly passes. It has been offering the Flexpass for three years, which gives customers who make twenty journeys a month a 20 percent discount. But now the agency plans to scrap the pass.

Mr. Whelan, 42, said his wife bought a Flexpass to get to Manhattan from their home in Gillette, N.J., at a cost of $196. After a 15 percent increase, a monthly pass would cost her $406.

Imposing such a heavy burden on commuters is a misguided public policy, said Alex Ambrose, an analyst at the research group New Jersey Policy Perspective: “That's exactly the wrong mentality.”

Ms. Ambrose and other transit advocates have called for a permanent solution to New Jersey Transit's financial problems for years. Unlike many other public transit systems in the country, the agency does not have a dedicated revenue source. It relies on annual appropriations from the state to supplement what it receives from the federal government and its customers.

But the pandemic has turned that structure upside down. In 2019, tariffs accounted for more than 40 percent of the agency's revenue, about $970 million. Last year, that share was just 25 percent, or about $700 million, a New Jersey Transit spokesperson said.

New Jersey Transit projects a deficit of more than $100 million in the fiscal year that begins July 1, and nearly $800 million the following year. The rate increase would bridge the first gap, the agency says. But the second will require a huge increase in the state contribution.

Mr Murphy said the proposed rate increase was fair because he had waited to propose it until the quality of service had been restored. As evidence, he pointed to an award the agency received last year that he said was for the No. 1 transit system in the country.

But that wasn't the case. The award, from the American Public Transportation Association, was for outstanding performance at the nation's largest systems – a sort of “most improved” trophy.

Mark Bonamo contributed reporting from Newark.