After a taxing tennis season, a golden opportunity in Paris

It should come as no surprise that tennis’ Big Three – Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer – have dominated the Masters 1000 tournaments with almost the same record-breaking accuracy as the Grand Slams. They have won a total of 103 of these top tournaments; Throw in Andy Murray and the title count reaches 117.

The Big Three won all but one Indian Wells title from 2004 through 2017 and, with Murray, 12 of the 15 Miami Open championships through 2019. Nadal won 10 times in Rome and 11 in Monte Carlo, with Djokovic won a total of eight times in those two games. tournaments. The list goes on, with these legends usually also filling the other spot in a final in most years.

But there is one small weak point: the Rolex Paris Masters, which starts on Monday. Djokovic has won it six times. But Federer, now retired, won only once. Murray has won once and Nadal has only reached one final.

Last year, Holger Rune, then 19, won his first Masters 1000 in Paris, joining a list of surprise winners that since 2010 has included Robin Soderling, David Ferrer, Jack Sock and Karen Khachanov, none of whom have ever won other Masters 1000s. won singles titles. (Three others – Denis Shapovalov, Filip Krajinovic and Jerzy Janowicz – reached their only Masters 1000 final here.)

Several factors make Paris different, including the fact that it is the last major tournament of the year. “People are tired,” said Brad Gilbert, an ESPN analyst and former professional. “That brings a lot of unpredictability.”

Vedran Martic, Khachanov’s coach, noted that Khachanov was only 22 when he won, explaining that it is easier for younger (and lower-ranked) players to find success after a long, difficult season. They haven’t played as deep in tournaments week after week as top players, which gives them fresher legs. (Older players, he added, are also more likely to have wives and children eager to get their short offseasons underway.)

Craig Boynton, who coaches world number 11 Hubert Hurkacz, said the court surface in Paris prevented the ball from bouncing high, making it harder for players to set up shots and win points quickly. “That’s mental and taxing on the legs,” he said, emphasizing that the fatigue factor in Paris is usually more mental than physical.

“Attitude is the most important thing right now,” Boynton said. “In the locker room, people say, ‘Who’s crispy?’, which means, ‘Who’s burned out?'” Guys can come to Paris super crispy when they think about their vacation and want to get it over with and move on.”

Young players who feel good in the fall can gain confidence and hit the ground running, as Rune did last year, Gilbert said. “If you get hot, that’s a good tournament to take advantage of.”

Martic agreed to some extent, saying Khachanov had just won in Moscow in 2018 and was in a good flow. But he added: “It’s hard to pinpoint one reason: he also plays well indoors and loves Paris and the hustle and bustle and atmosphere there.”

The calendar is also important in other ways. Federer withdrew from or skipped the Paris Masters four times in the 2010s, in part because his home tournament in Basel, Switzerland, immediately precedes it. Not only did he win Basel seven times (and ten in total) during that decade, reaching the final twice more, but he also devoted extra energy to supporting the event.

More importantly, Boynton said, following in Paris’ footsteps, the ATP Finals for the top eight players will take place. That’s even more prestigious than a Masters 1000. Three out of four times Federer left Paris, he played in the final; Nadal has played the final four times after skipping Paris or withdrawing midway through the tournament due to injury.

Gilbert said if a strong performance at the Paris Masters could send a player to the ATP Finals, “that’s a great motivator.” And, he added, money is important too, pointing to a new wrinkle this year that will take the edge off the crunch.

The ATP will distribute $20 million to the top 30 players with the most ranking points accumulated during Masters 1000 tournaments and ATP Finals. “That’s a significant amount of money, and I suspect anyone close to the bonus pool will be ready for a real fight,” he said.

However, any chance of breaking through comes with a Novak-sized caveat: Djokovic, the most successful of the Big Three at this level, has reached the final in seven of his past eight visits.

This year he will be well rested. So despite the previous unpredictability and the factors that favor the youth, the likelihood remains that an older man will play on the final day in Paris.