What will happen to Prigozhin and his Wagner fighters? Here’s what we know.

Just three days ago, Wagner’s mercenary group was advancing on Moscow, and Vladimir V. Putin’s 20-year rule of Russia seemed to be in jeopardy. Then, in a stunning twist, the leader of the rebellion, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said he was stopping the rebellion and going into exile.

While the dust has settled, here’s a look at what we know about the situation.

What will happen to Mr. Prigozhin?

As of Tuesday morning, the most recent photos released of Mr Prigozhin showed him smiling to onlookers on Saturday as he was chased away from Rostov-on-Don, the southwestern Russian city over which Wagner had claimed control.

At the time those photos were taken, he was expected to go to Belarus under a deal announced by that country’s authoritarian leader, President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, a staunch ally of Mr. Putin.

On Tuesday afternoon, Mr Lukashenko said that Mr Prigozhin – a billionaire and himself a former friend of Mr Putin – had arrived in the country.

Yet much is unknown about Mr Prigozhin’s near future, not least where he will live, whether he will be free to travel within or outside Belarus and how much influence he will be able to wield as a political figure in Russia .

Perhaps most importantly, it is not clear how his relations with Moscow – and with Putin – will evolve. Some former Putin allies who came into contact with him have faced the wrath of Russian security services.

It is also unclear what role Mr Prigozhin will be allowed to play as leader of the Wagner Group, whose fighters were also offered entry into Belarus.

What happens to Wagner?

Fomenting rebellion would normally be perilous in Putin’s Russia, where even modest expressions of dissent are severely punished. But Russian authorities said on Tuesday that charges of “armed mutiny” against Mr Prigozhin and the mercenaries were dropped as part of the deal with Mr Lukashenko.

Sunday the Russian state news media reported that Wagner troops had returned to their camps in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, which Russia largely occupied and illegally annexed last fall. At the same time, Mr Lukashenko said on Tuesday he was offering Wagner fighters a base to use in Belarus, though it was unclear under what terms the offer was made, how many mercenaries would accept it or what they would do. over there.

Before the attempted uprising, Putin had said that all irregular units fighting in Ukraine, including Wagner, would have to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, a move Prigozhin cited over the weekend as a key motivation for his rebellion.

Given that, it’s unclear how quickly – and even if – the Russian military can absorb them into its ranks. It questions the willingness of Wagner fighters to serve and possibly die under the new, official structure.

Only when they return to fight in Ukraine will it be possible to judge their continued morale and drive. Some Ukrainian forces consider them to be the best equipped, most motivated and most tactically aggressive of all Russian forces.

And Ukraine is only part of Wagner’s portfolio. The group is active in the Central African Republic, Mali and Sudan and has offered military aid in each country for a fee, in part in terms of access to the countries’ natural resources. In Mali, evidence suggests they took part in a mass murder of civilians last year, while in the Central African Republic they are accused of possible war crimes by the Washington-based group that seeks to expose corruption by The Sentry.

Wagner appeared to be operating in Africa on behalf of the Kremlin, and it is unclear whether Wagner will continue with his contracts on the continent or withdraw.

Is Mr. Putin stronger or weaker?

There is no shortage of pundits saying that Putin is an inferior figure because of the insurgency, which posed arguably the greatest threat to public safety during his rule of more than two decades. Analysts note that, for a leader striving to exude toughness, his vow on Saturday to bring the mercenaries to justice, only to quickly strike a deal in which they will apparently avoid prosecution, made for a remarkable climb to downstairs.

But ever since, Mr. Putin has tried to radiate unity and strength. On Monday, he branded Mr Prigozhin a traitor and said the Russian state had consolidated “at all levels” against the uprising. On Tuesday, Putin thanked the Russian military for “essentially stopping a civil war”.

It is not clear how a possible weakening of Putin’s grip on power might manifest itself, or how quickly or in what form a challenge to his authority might come.

He is judged in part by Russia’s success, or lack thereof, on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the ability of Moscow’s troops to withstand a Ukrainian counter-offensive that began this month will put his authority over the army at risk. put to the test. But Mr. Putin’s main audience is domestic.

An analyst, Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter turned political consultant, said Monday’s speech was an “extremely weak performance”.

That said, after a two-day period in which every hour seemed to increase Putin’s danger over the weekend, the coming days and weeks could offer him opportunities to reassert an aura of stability.

That certainly seemed to be his goal on Tuesday, when he gave a grandly choreographed speech to soldiers and security forces standing at attention on the Kremlin grounds — a rare public appearance with a red carpet arrival.

How will this affect the war in Ukraine?

In any case, the Wagner Group has had a few turbulent days. And for the Ukrainian army, whose counter-offensive is gaining momentum, that can’t hurt.

The question is how much Kiev can benefit from signs of wavering in the morale of the Wagner group. The fact that from 1 July some Wagner troops will be placed under Russian military command could shake up the organization, at least in the short term.

Then there is the question of what happens to the battlefield strength of the Wagner fighters. The mercenaries led the way to Russia in months-long battle for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, claiming tens of thousands of casualties along the way.

It remains to be seen if that can be reproduced within the Russian armed forces, who are generally paid less than the mercenaries.