Putin, Xi and Modi meet on camera, but with no sign of greater unity

Representing the top three powers attempting to reshape a United States-dominated world order, they met via video feeds on Tuesday at a virtual summit meeting. The question was whether it would be a sign of unity – or of their sometimes tense differences.

For President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, that meant beaming strength in the aftermath of the uprising by the Wagner mercenary group and demanding international support for its war in Ukraine.

For China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, the summit was another chance to attack the United States by calling for an end to “hegemonism” and “power politics”.

And for India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the host of the gathering, it was a way to signal his country’s rising status – and to give arch-rival Pakistan a thinly disguised jab by calling on other nations to unite in a “fight against terrorism”. .”

The annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization offered no dramatic explanation of shifting alliances in the leaders’ prepared remarks. But the forum – which was founded by China and Russia in 2001 and includes Pakistan and the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – did provide a glimpse of how a regional bloc formed to counter Western influence could merge and navigate their competing priorities. .

There was no mention of the growing friction between Beijing and New Delhi, which has brought historically non-aligned India closer to the United States.

And if a leader was concerned about Putin’s weakened position at home and the ongoing fighting in Ukraine eroding the forum’s effectiveness, he kept it to himself.

More important, it seemed, was the need to form a united front to show that the leaders were in control of their domestic issues and ready to usher in what Putin called a new “multipolar” world.

“They all have incentives to downplay things and make it all seem normal,” said Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. “They showed that things were under control and that there are no rifts, despite Russia’s problems and India’s desire to explore ties with the US”

No leader was more in need of an overhaul of his image on Tuesday than Putin, who last month faced the greatest challenge during his more than two-decade-long rule as Wagner mercenaries attempted to overthrow Russia’s military leadership.

While Putin was able to defuse the crisis by agreeing to allow the mercenary leader, Yegveny V. Prigozhin, to leave for Belarus, the brief uprising raised questions about his authority and future.

At his first international forum since the mutiny, Mr Putin thanked member states for their support following the uprising, which he said lacked popular support in Russia.

“United by the deep responsibility for the fate of the motherland, Russian political circles and the whole society showed a united front against the attempted armed mutiny,” Putin said. He also tried to throw the top as a sign of international support for his invasion of Ukraine.

Nowhere is that support more important than from China, the only major country to provide Russia with diplomatic and economic cover. China has done this because it has made a long-term bet with Putin as a necessary partner to challenge the United States.

That bet has a price tag, however, as Beijing struggles to rebuild ties with key economic partners in Europe. China’s refusal to condemn the war in Ukraine has also drawn more global attention to Beijing’s aggressive stance on Taiwan.

The virtual meeting offered Mr. Xi the chance to further China’s goal of extorting influence from the United States. He praised the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a way to “improve global governance” and promote “Chinese-style modernization” – coded language that expresses a vision of the world in which Beijing and its partners have more say over international rules and norms.

Where India fits into that vision remains to be seen. China’s biggest emerging strategic rival, which joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2017, sees the forum as a way to balance ties with Western countries and relations with China and Russia.

India has maintained stable ties with Russia, mainly economic ones, after refusing to condemn the invasion of Ukraine. But relations with China have deteriorated over border disputes and India’s membership in a security-oriented coalition with the United States called the Quad. Beijing sees the Quad as a tool to contain China.

A high-profile visit to Washington last month by Mr Modi has bolstered Chinese suspicions that India is moving closer to the United States in curbing China’s rise.

Despite those tensions, India has a vested interest in the forum. It relies on Central Asian countries for energy supply and to maintain influence in Afghanistan, which has a spillover effect on Pakistan.

Mr Modi hailed the forum as “an important platform” for peace and prosperity, but urged the group to condemn countries that “use terrorism as an instrument of their policies”. The comment was a reference to Pakistan, which accuses India of sponsoring militants in the disputed Kashmir region.

“India will not abandon or leave the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as it would lose its foothold in Central Asia and yield the Eurasian region to India’s main adversary, China,” said Sreeram Chaulia, dean of the school of international affairs at OP Jindal Global. University near New Delhi.