US fears Russia will place a nuclear weapon in space

When Russia conducted a series of secret military satellite launches in early 2022 surrounding its invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence officials began delving into the mystery of what exactly the Russians were doing.

Later, spy agencies discovered that Russia was working on a new kind of space-based weapon that could threaten the thousands of satellites that keep the world connected.

In recent weeks, a new warning has been circulating from the US spy agencies: a new launch may be in the pipeline, and the question is whether Russia plans to use this weapon to launch a real nuclear weapon into space – a violation of a treaty half a century old. . Agencies are divided on the likelihood that President Vladimir V. Putin would go so far, but nonetheless the intelligence community is a pressing concern for the Biden administration.

Even if Russia puts a nuclear weapon in orbit, U.S. officials agree the weapon will not detonate. Instead, it would lurk like a time bomb in low orbit, a reminder from Mr. Putin that if he were pressed too hard with sanctions or military resistance to his ambitions in Ukraine or beyond, he could destroy economies destroy without targeting people on earth.

Despite the uncertainties, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken raised the possibility of Russian nuclear action along with his Chinese and Indian counterparts on Friday and Saturday on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.

Mr. Blinken's message was blunt: Any nuclear detonation in space would take out not only American satellites but also those in Beijing and New Delhi. Global communications systems would fail, disrupting everything from emergency services to cell phones to the regulation of generators and pumps. Debris from the explosion would spread throughout low Earth orbit and make navigation difficult, if not impossible, for everything from Starlink satellites, used for Internet communications, to spy satellites.

Since Putin made clear his disdain for the United States, Mr. Blinken told them, it was up to the leaders of China and India, President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to talk him down from what could turn into a disaster.

In a statement on Saturday, the State Department said that Mr. Blinken during his meetings “emphasized that pursuing this capability should be a concern.”

“He will continue to raise it at additional meetings at the Munich Security Conference,” the statement continued.

It was unclear how much of the intelligence on Russia's 2022 satellite tests, which have not previously been reported, Mr. Blinken shared when he met with the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, or with the Indian, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

Some intelligence officials have objected to sharing too much about what the U.S. knows because details of Russia's program remain highly classified, U.S. officials said. But others argued that the United States needed to share enough to convince China and India of the seriousness of the threat. During the meetings in Munich, the two men absorbed the information, officials said, and Mr. Wang repeated China's usual statements about the importance of the peaceful use of space.

Mr Blinken sought to replicate a series of successful warnings to Mr Putin in October 2022, when there was serious alarm in Washington that Russia was preparing to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Mr Putin has shrugged off the threats, although it is still unclear how much pressure he faced, especially from Mr Xi, who has strengthened ties with Moscow.

Both the United States and the Soviet Union briefly tested nuclear weapons in space before ratifying the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which bans the placement of nuclear weapons of any kind in orbit, as well as further nuclear detonations in space. A 1962 test by the United States, launched from Johnston Atoll in the Pacific Ocean, was particularly damaging. The electromagnetic pulse exploded 250 miles into the atmosphere, destroying electronics in Hawaii, disrupting telephone service there, knocking out at least a half-dozen satellites and damaging others.

Realizing how harmful the test was, the United States and the Soviet Union signed the test a year later Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treatythat prohibited nuclear testing in the atmosphere or in space.

If Putin were to deploy the weapon in low Earth orbit, U.S. officials fear it would do more than just violate the 1967 treaty. It is one of the last remaining major arms control treaties still in force. Biden administration officials have expressed concern that if Russia violates the ban, other countries — such as North Korea — could follow suit.

For Putin, launching a nuclear weapon into space would escalate his growing confrontation with the United States and Europe. Its inability to take over Ukraine, even with a much larger army, has vividly demonstrated the limits of Russia's conventional forces. According to US and European intelligence services, this has made him more dependent on nuclear weapons and cyber attacks, his most powerful asymmetric weapons.

A senior intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive nuclear issues, said he believed Russia was developing space-based nuclear weapons because Mr Putin believes none of his adversaries, including the United States, have a would risk direct confrontation with the US. Russia on the use of a nuclear-armed satellite.

Another intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity for the same reason, said Putin is betting that the threat of a nuclear explosion in space is different from the threat of destroying Los Angeles or London. The official added that Putin would be more likely to threaten hardware than people, which may give him more leeway to deploy the new satellite.

Publicly, the White House has described the new Russian weapon only as anti-satellite technology, without providing details. But officials have insisted it poses no immediate threat to the human population.

“We are not talking about a weapon that could be used to attack people or cause physical destruction here on Earth,” John F. Kirby, a senior national security official, told reporters.

The new intelligence came to light after a cryptic public warning Tuesday by Representative Michael Turner, Republican of Ohio and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, that the US had new information about a “serious threat to national security.”

Mr Turner had been sending concerned letters about the anti-satellite technology for weeks. He had grown frustrated and feared the government was not taking it seriously enough, U.S. officials said, a claim administration officials deny.

Mr. Turner's comments on Tuesday angered the White House and the spy agencies because of their predictable effect: Reporters rushing to learn more about the intelligence began uncovering details of the anti-satellite weapon.

On Thursday, Mr. Kirby said President Biden had ordered a diplomatic strike, without detailing the plan.

“He has led a series of initial actions, including additional briefings to congressional leaders, direct diplomatic engagement with Russia, including with our allies and our partners, and with other countries around the world with interests at stake,” the said. Mr Kirby. .

Erik Schmitt in Washington contributed to the reporting.