How a Russian barrage evaded Ukraine’s defenses and caused deadly chaos
For months, Ukraine’s use of powerful Western-supplied air defense systems to fend off Russian missile attacks has given its citizens some reassurance that a protective shield had effectively been placed over major cities like the capital Kiev.
On Friday, that shield partially cracked.
In one of the largest air raids of the war, Russia launched so many missiles that Ukraine’s defenses appear to be overstretched. Facing a complex barrage of various airborne weapons, the The Ukrainian Air Force said this it had shot down only 87 of the 122 missiles fired by Moscow, about 70 percent of the total, with all hypersonic missiles and many ballistic missiles evading interception.
Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation research group, was blunt. “It overwhelmed the Ukrainian air defenses,” he said.
To be fair, the air defenses are not perfect and the size of the barrage played a significant role in the number of missiles slipping through. But the bombing also showed how Russia has learned the best ways to evade Ukrainian air defenses and hit the country hard, military experts and Ukrainian officials said. For months, Russia had stockpiled vast quantities of high-precision missiles and launched wave after wave of drones in what appeared to be a campaign to probe Ukraine’s defenses.
Friday’s attack “was very cleverly constructed,” Mr. Kuzan said. “Russia attacked with drones and ballistic and hypersonic missiles, combining them in several waves and launching them from different locations.”
Ukraine’s answer became clear late Friday evening The Russian army said so it had intercepted thirteen missiles launched by Ukraine at Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders the two countries. Ukraine’s missile and drone attacks continued into Saturday, with Ukrainian news media characterizing the barrage as a barrage response to the previous day’s attack. That’s what the Russian authorities said that at least 14 people, including two children, were killed and more than 100 were injured in shelling in Belgorod on Saturday.
In Ukraine, most of the missiles fired by Russia into Kiev in recent months have been intercepted before residents even realized what was coming their way. For Ukrainian civilians not on the front lines, the death and destruction caused on Friday in cities such as Kiev, Kharkiv, Lviv and Dnipro were painful reminders of the ongoing threat of war.
Friday’s strikes killed at least 39 people, injured around 160 others and hit critical industrial and military infrastructure, as well as civilian buildings such as hospitals and schools. They also expressed concern about Ukraine’s ability to withstand similar attacks in the future, as a protracted war leaves Kiev short of crucial weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles, while Moscow expands its arsenal.
“It is clear that with the missile stocks available to the aggressive state, they can and will continue such attacks,” said Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. a message on social media on Friday.
After the attack, Ukrainian officials renewed their calls for Western allies to speed up the delivery of air defense weapons to Kiev. But political infighting, particularly in Washington but increasingly in Europe, has left doubts over additional aid to Ukraine, including a crucial $50 billion security package that Congress has repeatedly refused to approve.
During Russia’s intensive aerial bombardment of Ukraine last winter, missiles were shot into military and civilian infrastructure with relative ease, bypassing the then meager air defenses. Many of those attacks targeted the power grid, leaving Ukrainians in cold and darkness.
In response, Ukraine’s Western allies began supplying Kiev with powerful air defense weapons, including Patriot surface-to-air batteries, probably the most advanced ground-based system available. A first Patriot battery was received around April.
Ukraine’s defenses soon improved.
According to data from the Ukrainian Air Force, Ukraine managed to intercept about 83 percent of Russian missiles in May. In one day, when Russia launched 51 missiles, 48 were shot down army said. Data collected by Rochan Consulting, an analytics group based in Poland, showed that the high interception rate is largely due to the high interception rate continued through December.
In response, Russia appears to be trying different combinations of air weapons and attack routes to figure out how best to breach these defenses.
As part of these efforts, the Ukrainian military said, Russia has used low-cost Shahed attack drones to test its defenses. A month ago, Russia launched about 75 drones in a nighttime attack, a “record number” at the time. according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, said on national television this fall that the use of drones “allows the enemy to draw conclusions about the forces and assets in a given region and take this information into account when planning future attacks.”
A analysis of the trajectories of Russian air strikes, compiled by Texty, a Ukrainian publication specializing in data journalism, showed that Russian drones were often flown along a major highway in southern Ukraine – presumably because their noise mixed with the noise of traffic, making them less noticeable – and that they were often launched from Crimea. Sometimes drones and missiles were fired from locations far apart but aimed at the same target, the analysis showed.
Ukrainian officials have also warned that they believe Russia is stockpiling missiles for a sustained, large-scale campaign this winter. By early November, Russia had assembled more than 800 high-precision missiles, This is reported by the Ukrainian military intelligence service.
On Friday, Russia appears to have put those months of preparation into practice.
General Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s top commander, said on social media that the attack began with three dozen Shahed drones launched from the north and southeast in the early hours of Friday. Bombers then began firing cruise missiles around 5 a.m., followed an hour later by ballistic missiles. Finally, at 6:30 a.m., Russian warplanes launched five hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, one of the most advanced weapons in the Russian arsenal.
‘We have seen a large number of missiles’ Mr. Ihnat, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, said this on Friday. “The screen was red, the monitors. They were spread throughout Ukraine and flew to bypass routes. Some missiles flew in circles before hitting their targets.”
Ukraine managed to intercept only the first wave of cruise missiles, which were fired around 5 a.m. The other rockets crashed into warehouses, weapons factories and residential buildings, burying people in the rubble.
The attack suggested that “the Shaheds who preceded the missiles may have distracted Ukrainian air defenses or otherwise enabled the attack,” according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group. said in a review.
Another possible reason that some missiles evaded Ukrainian air defenses was the munition’s use of decoys. Unverified videos posted on social media showed what appeared to be a Russian cruise missile firing flares, a type of decoy often used by fighter jets to confuse air defenses.
Mr Kuzan of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation said Friday’s Russian attack showed that Ukraine still does not have enough equipment to repel large, coordinated barrages.
By contrast, Mr. Kuzan warned that Russia “has enough resources to carry out several more attacks like this,” adding that he said Moscow was “already preparing for the next one.”
Daria Mitiuk reporting contributed.