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Tuesday’s drone attack on Moscow further demonstrated the spread of the war in Ukraine to the Russian capital, shining a spotlight on the city’s air defenses and the Kremlin’s efforts to adapt to a new kind of conflict.
Since the 1980s, Moscow has been surrounded by people a complex air defense system known as Amurthat was designed to protect the capital from intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear bombers, a threat very different from the reality of Russia’s modern war against Ukraine.
Ukraine has denied responsibility for Tuesday’s drone attack and another this month that targeted the Kremlin, but such attacks are increasing in frequency on Russian soil. This has forced Russia to adopt its defense systems to counter a type of munitions that are less lethal, but much more numerous.
In January, Russia began stationing new military hardware around Moscow without official explanation on top of prominent buildings such as the Department of Defense. Military experts identified the weapons as the S-400, Russia’s most advanced anti-aircraft missile system, and the Pantsir S-1, which in its most common form is a truck with a relatively simple anti-aircraft missile launcher.
Pantsir missiles shot down five of the eight drones that attacked Moscow on Tuesday morning, according to the Defense Ministry. Posted a video on social media on Tuesday and verified by The New York Times showed a Pantsir system launching a missile on the outskirts of Moscow.
The other three drones were disabled by what it called “radio-electronic warfare,” according to the Defense Department. The ministry did not provide details, however as of 2016 it has been installed an electronic jamming system known as Pole-21 on satellite towers. These systems block satellite navigation signals, causing drones and other electronically guided weapons to lose control.
As a result, Russian officials – including President Vladimir V. Putin – have tried to view the attack on the capital as a triumph for Russian defense.
“It is clear what needs to be done to increase the density of the capital’s air defense systems,” Putin said in response to the attack. “And we’re just going to do that.”
One potential problem: The effectiveness of the Pantsir and Pole systems drops sharply in densely populated areas saturated with satellite data, said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based security research group CAST. To effectively counter drone strikes, he said, the Russian military must try to eliminate them before they reach the city limits – a difficult task given the size of the country.
Defending airspace in urban areas is also more difficult than near the front lines, where most aircraft will be military. Around cities, soldiers must track civilian aircraft, such as planes and helicopters, while simultaneously looking for radar returns from much smaller aircraft, such as unmanned drones.
“In the past, air defense systems near cities would take out anything smaller than a helicopter,” says Ian Williams of the Missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. “Small drones can have radar the size of a goose, so if you tune your radars to look for enemy drones, you’ll also see a lot of birds.”
The Pantsir air defense vehicles on display around Moscow entered service with the Russian military in 2003, according to CSIS, and have since been upgraded. Armed with short-range infrared-seeking missiles and a 30-millimeter gun guided by radar, the Pantsir was built to escort mechanized troops like a tank column, said Mr. Williams, providing a “bubble” of protection as the convoy moved forward.
They were designed and built before small drones became a major threat on the battlefield, said Mr. Williams, and while they have some ability to shoot down drones, that’s not what they’re optimized for. Attackers can also use terrain to mask the approach of low-flying aircraft, such as drones, he added.
Those responsible for Tuesday’s attack, he said, appeared to be “exploiting the limitations of the Pantsir and other air defense systems around Moscow”.
Oleg Matsnev And Riley Mellen reporting contributed.