The Scottish independence movement is down, but not out, analysts say

For nearly a decade, Nicola Sturgeon, as leader of the Scottish government, was the undisputed figurehead of the push to break Scotland’s age-old union with England.

Her resignation earlier this year – and now her arrest on Sunday over an investigation into the finances of her Scottish National Party – has left the fate of the movement in flux.

Support for independence has waned, but support for Scotland remaining part of the United Kingdom, a bond forged in 1707, is also fragile. Opinion polls show that the Scottish public is still roughly divided on the issue. For now, the political road to an independent Scotland is blocked.

“It’s a stalemate, there is no firm will for independence, but we must equally recognize that there is no firm will for union either,” said Nicola McEwen, a professor of territorial politics at the University of Edinburgh.

“Reports of the demise of the independence movement and even of the SNP have been somewhat exaggerated,” said Professor McEwen, who added that “given everything that’s been going on, it might be surprising that support hasn’t fallen more than it is.”

Operation Branchform, the codename for investigation into the Scottish National Party’s finances, began in 2021 and is said to have followed complaints about the handling of about £600,000, or about $750,000, in donations raised to campaign for a second ballot about Scottish independence. In 2014, Scots voted 55 to 45 percent against secession from the United Kingdom in a divisive referendum.

Ms Sturgeon, who was released on Sunday after seven hours of questioning and quickly declared her innocence, has not been charged. On Monday, her successor, Humza Yousaf, rejected calls to suspend Ms Sturgeon from the party.

She is the third senior figure in the party to be arrested but not charged. Another is Ms Sturgeon’s husband, Peter Murrell, the former CEO of the party who held the position from 1999 until March when he resigned after accepting blame for misleading statements made by the party about the size of its dues-paying members .

The police investigation deepened in the weeks following Ms. Sturgeon and the tough competition to succeed her which was narrowly won by Mr. Yousaf.

His leadership is still relatively new, but so far he has struggled to match the high profile of his predecessor, or rise to the prize that ultimately eluded it: Scottish independence.

Supporters have pushed for a second vote on Scottish independence after the first failed in 2014. Their argument was supported by Brexit, which saw Britain leave the European Union because the majority of Scots who voted in the 2016 Brexit referendum were in the European bloc. They were outnumbered by voters in England and Wales who wanted to leave.

But to have legal effect, the London government must agree to a new independence vote, and successive prime ministers have refused, insisting that the 2014 decision is valid for a generation.

Ms Sturgeon hit another roadblock last year when she tested in court her right to schedule a referendum without London’s permission. In November, the UK Supreme Court ruled against her.

Some hard voices favor unilateral action, perhaps voting in defiance of London. Catalan separatists in Spain followed that path in 2017, but it led to the imprisonment or exile of some leaders of the independence movement. And going outside the law would block an independent Scotland on its way to European Union membership, the SNP’s goal.

Frustrated on all sides, Ms Sturgeon eventually proposed that the next UK general election, expected in the second half of 2024, be used as a de facto independence referendum, with Scotland’s constitutional future at its heart. Internal critics questioned the viability of that idea, as other political parties disagreed.

In an interview broadcast on Sunday, before Ms Sturgeon’s arrest, Mr Yousaf said he was confident that, despite the recent setbacks, an independent Scotland was on the way.

“Despite some of the most difficult weeks our party has probably experienced, especially in modern times, that support for independence is still rock solid. It’s a good foundation we can build on,” he told the BBC. “I have no doubt that I will be the leader who will see Scotland become an independent nation.”

The party may have missed its moment. It’s hard to see a more favorable backdrop for the independence campaign than the messy aftermath of Brexit, the chaotic leadership of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson – who was unpopular in Scotland – and the political dramas of 2022 when Britain was two changed prime ministers.

Paradoxically, while Brexit has strengthened the political case for Scottish independence, it has complicated the practical one. Britain has left the giant single market and customs union of the European Union, implying a trade border between an independent Scotland and England, its largest economic partner.

The years of stalemate and chaos that followed the Brexit referendum may have also deterred some Scottish voters from further constitutional changes.

In addition, the SNP has been criticized for its record in government, and the opposition Labor Party sees an opportunity to recover in Scotland, where it dominated politics before the SNP decimated it.

“After unfair claims of party membership, a very poor record in government and no progress towards independence, this just adds to the SNP’s woes,” said James Mitchell, a professor of public policy at the University of Edinburgh, referring to recent events.

“It would be damaging enough for the SNP’s electoral prospects, but with Labor looking increasingly confident and competent in Scotland and in Britain, it seems the SNP’s chance to advance its cause is over.”

The next UK general election could provide Mr Yousaf with another opening if, as some pollsters predict, Labor emerges as the largest party, but without an overall majority. In that scenario, the SNP could try to trade its support for a minority Labor government for a pledge to hold a second referendum.

The problem is that Keir Starmer, the Labor leader, has so far rejected such a deal. And if some supporters of Scottish independence vote Labor to try and defeat the Conservative government led by Rishi Sunak, the SNP could lose seats in the UK Parliament, weakening its position.

Some analysts believe that the independence movement should focus on building wider popular support, including through other organizations and political parties, reaching beyond the boundaries of the SNP and its supporters.

Finally, Scotland’s union with England entered into voluntarily, and were polls showing that around 60 per cent of voters were consistently in favor of an independent Scotland, that would be hard for a British government to ignore.

However, even Mr. Yousaf acknowledges that this is still a long way off. At this point, he told the BBC, “it is quite clear that independence is not the consistent firm will of the Scottish people.”

The question facing him, his colleagues and the wider independence movement is how they intend to change that. “I don’t really see any signs of a strategy,” said Professor McEwen, “that doesn’t mean there isn’t one, I just don’t see evidence of it.”