In California, the Senate battle has the most intrigue
California is a big part of Super Tuesday, but don’t expect a big turnout in the state.
Because there has been little drama in the presidential election, voters have been slow to return their ballots so far, and moderate participation is expected for this election. Of the more than 22 million ballots mailed to registered voters in early February, only about 16 percent had been returned by mid-Tuesday.
“Turnout is likely to be a record low for a presidential primary in California,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic political consultant and political data expert. He predicted that fewer than a third of California’s registered voters would cast their ballots.
If that prediction is correct, an electorate that is older, whiter and more conservative than usual would make some consequential decisions. Amongst them:
Who will succeed Feinstein?
After Senator Dianne Feinstein died in September, Governor Gavin Newsom quickly filled the vacancy by appointing Laphonza Butler, then chair of the Emily’s List political action committee. But she’s not running to keep the seat.
The subsequent open primaries attracted many aspiring successors. Based on polling and fundraising, the clear frontrunner for months has been 63-year-old Rep. Adam Schiff, a Democrat from Burbank who served as lead prosecutor in Trump’s first impeachment trial.
Locked in a tight race for second place are Rep. Katie Porter, 50, an Orange County Democrat and former law professor known for her takedowns of powerful leaders during congressional hearings; and Steve Garvey, 75, a former first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres. He is the only Republican among the leading runoff contenders.
Rep. Barbara Lee, 77, a progressive Democrat from Oakland, is consistently in fourth place.
Under California primary rules, the top two candidates in Tuesday’s election will advance to the November runoff, regardless of party affiliation. In two previous Senate elections in California, two Democrats emerged from the primaries for an intraparty battle in the general election.
Ms. Porter, a progressive woman, hopes for such an outcome, but recent polls suggest such a battle is less likely. This year, Mr. Garvey’s name recognition has helped rally Republicans behind his campaign. This also applies to Mr. Schiff’s advertising strategy.
If Mr. Garvey wins, and some analysts say he could conceivably take first place given the divided Democratic vote and low turnout, Mr. Schiff is expected to guide California’s election math to a victory in November in the heavily democratic state.
How will the battlegrounds of the House of Representatives develop?
California is dominated by Democratic voters, and the party currently holds a 40-11 lead, with one vacancy, in the state’s congressional delegation. But Democrats believe they can win even more seats this fall, hoping for a “blue wave” like they enjoyed in 2018.
A deep red and often underestimated vein of conservatism runs from the rural North through the agricultural Central Valley to the suburbs of Southern California. In 2022, voters in those congressional districts helped Republicans gain control of the House of Representatives by a razor-thin margin. The question this year is whether the Republican Party can defend its battleground districts in California and maintain its overall lead in Washington.
Tuesday will provide the first hint at an answer. In one Central Valley district, Republicans could win a battleground seat thanks to an intraparty Democratic battle that could eliminate Democrats from the general election.
Has California cooled its liberal values?
Governor Newsom, a Democrat, proudly proclaims California’s liberal policies such as progressive taxes, social inclusion and abortion rights. But a constellation of local races and voting measures will test how liberal California is.
In San Francisco, a local ballot measure would require county aid recipients to be screened if suspected of drug addiction and make their benefits conditional on participation in a treatment program.
In Los Angeles, nearly a dozen contenders are challenging progressive District Attorney George Gascón, who was elected along with a wave of liberal prosecutors following nationwide protests against police brutality in 2020.
On the other end of the political spectrum, voters in various conservative enclaves will decide whether right-wing Republicans pursue changes in local government that go too far.
In Orange County, Huntington Beach voters will weigh in on controversial ballot measures championed by a conservative Republican majority on the City Council. This year’s ballot asks voters to effectively ban the flying of Pride flags at City Hall and to require voter IDs at polling places and to monitor the polls.
In Shasta County, voters will reassess the chaotic tenure of a conservative Republican bloc that took over the five-member Board of Supervisors during the pandemic. Voters this year will decide the fate of three supervisors and consider two measures that would increase the influence of the conservative majority.