Taiwan holds elections for a new leader amid threats from China

Millions of Taiwanese citizens lined up at polling booths on Saturday to decide a decision that could reshape the island democracy's increasingly tense standoff with its much larger neighbor China: who should become Taiwan's next president in dangerous times?

Voters are mainly choosing between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which wants to continue pushing Taiwan away from Beijing's influence, arguing that this is the best way to keep the island safe, and the opposition Nationalist Party, which has vowed expand trade ties and restart talks with China, arguing that this will reduce the risks of war. A newer party, the Taiwan People's Party, has also promised steps to revive engagement with China.

Taiwan's election results, likely to be announced on Saturday evening, could reach far beyond the island, which has become the biggest flashpoint in the rivalry between China and the United States. Any change in China-Taiwan relations after the island's next president takes power in May could intensify or ease tensions between Beijing and Washington.

In some places, lines began to form at polling stations before the polls opened at 8 a.m., with many multi-generational families showing up in groups. Taiwanese citizens must vote in person – no electronic or mail-in ballots are allowed – and people fanned out to reach them almost 18,000 polling stations in temples, churches, community centers and schools across the island. After the polling stations close at 4 p.m., votes are counted manually

“Taiwan's election as president and vice president actually affects not only the future of Taiwan, but also that of Asia and even the entire world,” said Cheng Ting-bin, 56, a teacher who recently joined the capital Taipei has voted. “We all know the world is taking sides now.”

The race is tight. Vice President Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, is widely seen as the frontrunner. But Hou Yu-ih, the nationalist candidate, has cut Lai's lead to just a few percentage points in many polls in recent weeks.

And Taiwan People's Party candidate Ko Wen-je continues to hope for a surprise victory, propelled by voters fed up with the two established parties. Mr Ko's party said its meeting took place on Friday evening in Taipei, Taiwan's capital attracted almost 200,000 people.

In Taipei, Mr. Ko with his wife at a school where he voted along with a crowd of others, some of whom carried coffee as they quietly entered the voting booths to cast paper ballots.

One of his supporters, Jessica Chou, 25, said the DPP had brought Taiwan too close to Washington and hoped the next leader would keep his distance from both world powers.

“I worry about China, but I also think we cannot always rely on the United States,” Ms. Chou said as she left the school where she said she voted for Mr. Ko. “I hope Taiwan can find its own strategically advantageous position.”

Many described the solemn weight of using democratic means to decide which presidential candidate should face their much larger, autocratic and heavily armed neighbor.

“I think it is inevitable that my generation will face more clashes with China,” said Chen Hsuan, 27, after casting her vote at a primary school in Chiayi, a southern city. “So I cherish the opportunity to vote even more today.”

She said she voted for the DPP and hoped the new presidency could expand ties with democratic countries.

On Friday evening, the parties each held raucous election rallies in Taiwan. In Chiayi, candidates from the three parties drove campaign vans around a large fountain in a circle in the center of the city, shouting slogans and urging people to vote.

Large crowds of supporters gathered in the side streets around the circle, waving colorful banners and large balloons. The parade was festive, with candidate vans playing thumping club music, and several supporters dressed in inflatable dinosaur costumes for no apparent political reason.

Wu Lee-shu, 60, a clothing store clerk, waved a small flag for the Nationalist Party at the rally in Chiayi and said she was concerned about Taiwan's security under the DPP. It is likely that they will force Taiwan into war,” she said. “I am afraid that the other party will take power, but I will respect the results of democracy.”

The candidates have also debated domestic issues such as housing and energy policy, and they have leveled accusations that their rivals engaged in shady land deals. But the China issue overshadows every major election here.

Beijing claims that the island of 23 million people about 100 miles off the Chinese coast have territorially urged the population to accept unification – peacefully if possible; by force, if China's leaders decide it is necessary. The United States is by far the main funder of Taiwan's security and has become more openly active in supporting the island against Chinese pressure under Presidents Biden and Trump.

The DPP's presidential candidate, Mr Lai, is trying to win a third consecutive term in power for his party, something no party has achieved since Taiwan adopted direct presidential elections in 1996. He has pledged to stick to the approach of current leader President Tsai Ing-wen of keeping Beijing at bay while trying to avoid conflict, and ties with the United States and other democracies.

Since Ms. Tsai became president eight years ago, China has escalated military pressure on Taiwan. Chinese fighter planes and warships regularly test Taiwan's military, and that intimidation could increase, at least for a while, if Mr. Lai wins. The Chinese Communist Party has particularly vilified Mr. Lai, who earlier in his career called himself a “practical worker” for Taiwan's independence.

Mr Hou has pledged to reduce tensions with Beijing, arguing that stronger ties with China – through trade, tourism and public interaction – would help reduce the risk of conflict over Taiwan's future. But even a victory for Mr. Hou would not eliminate the deep political differences between Taipei and Beijing.

The winner of Taiwan's presidential election may also face tough politics in the island's 113-member legislature, which also goes to voters on Saturday. Polls show that the DPP is likely to lose its current majority in parliament, and the nationalists may not gain a new majority, potentially giving the Taiwan People's Party a powerful role in the legislature.