“This may be Ukraine’s only chance to liberate its occupied territory,” says expert JUSTIN BRONK

Ukraine’s announcement that it is “turning to offensive action” heralds the beginning of a new and potentially vital phase of the war with Russia that could be the only chance to regain territory, a military expert said today.

JUSTIN BRONK, a research fellow at London’s Royal United Services Institute, analyzed the latest situation in an article for MailOnline today and believes it is unlikely that Volodymyr Zelenksy’s forces will stand a better chance of taking control of the Russian-controlled to take back occupied land.

Months of heavy fighting around urban areas such as Bakhmut mean that the exchange of territory between the opposing armies is slowly gaining momentum. But that time has not been wasted, as Ukraine has replenished and strengthened its elite brigades with the arrival of equipment from European and NATO allies, including German Leopard 2 and British Challenger 2 tanks.

Ukrainian officials have left Russia in the dark about when and where it would launch its long-awaited counter-offensive, with commanders cautious about repeating the mistakes Russian forces made during their attacks that sank entire brigades.

Mr Bronk said the task for Zelensky’s troops will be enormous as they will have to get through extensive Russian defense lines that Putin’s forces have been working on for months, which include trenches, minefields and anti-tank defences.

The stakes are high, but after significant Western support and the struggle Russia faces to adapt to the exhausting nature of the war, leaving Kremlin forces short of ammunition, spares, reinforcements and morale, this could now be Ukraine’s best opportunity to make progress. .

With the Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine announcing that Ukrainian forces are “moving to offensive action”, it is important to manage our expectations of a quick and decisive result in the West.

Ukraine now has the operational advantage and strategic initiative in the long, grueling war it has been waging since Russia’s February 2022 invasion.

Since the highly successful counter-offensive in the northern Kharkiv region last autumn, and the more exhausting success in crushing the Russian army in the south to finally recapture the city of Kherson before Christmas, Ukraine has bid its time.

Russia had mobilized and attempted to train some 300,000 new soldiers since September last year, whom it has attempted to form new units and reinforce existing units exhausted by heavy and sustained casualties.

However, it has since essentially exhausted these forces, during six months of staggeringly wasteful infantry and artillery attacks around Vuhledar, Ardiivka and especially Bakhmut.

Now Russia has just enough troops to man its defensive trench lines, but nothing significant in the way of a reserve force of mobile armored units – the key to closing a large-scale breach of those trench lines by a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Ukraine had previously suffered a significant attrition of its elite brigades, which were heavily used in the autumn counter-offensives because they had received NATO training, had the best equipment and were thus capable of combined arms maneuver warfare.

Combined arms warfare is where tanks, infantry, armored vehicles, artillery, electronic warfare assets and logistics are all used together to gain ground quickly.

Having suffered heavy casualties during the successful autumn counter-offensives, Ukraine has therefore carefully managed these units to both rebuild them and form additional brigades with the same capabilities.

Western tanks such as the German Leopard 2 and the British Challenger 2 were used to train these elite brigades and are now equipping them for offensive combat.

Consequently, from the beginning of 2023, less well equipped and trained but more numerous infantry and light armored units were sent to desperately defend Bakhmut and other areas against the waves of Russian attacks.

As a result, both Russia and Ukraine suffered tens of thousands of casualties and Russia captured a limited area in the rubble, but while Russia’s elite units were exhausted, Ukraine’s are now ready to attempt to recapture large areas this summer.

However, the challenge remains formidable. Russian units have not been idle in their trenches, away from the main offensive actions.

They have constructed extensive lines of defense consisting of bunkers, anti-tank obstacles and thick minefields densely littered with both anti-personnel and anti-tank mines.

The fate of the Russian 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade in Vuhledar in March shows exactly what the danger is for the Ukrainian forces who launch a large-scale counter-offensive against this kind of defense line.

At Vuhledar, a Russian unit with tanks and artillery support attempted to advance through lanes their engineers had cleared through defensive minefields.

However, they encountered freshly scattered mines laid the night before which had not been cleared, and once the first few vehicles hit and had to stop, the force was suddenly trapped in narrow cleared corridors with mines on all sides in daylight.

Ukrainian UAVs quickly directed heavy artillery fire at the halted units, along with fire from anti-tank guided missile teams on the ground, and the Russian vehicles and dismounted infantry were forced to scatter and retreat through mines under withering fire. The 155th Brigade was functionally destroyed in just minutes.

This is why the Ukrainian commanders prepared so carefully for the counter-offensive.

Any little mistake on a battlefield riddled with mines, guarded by UAVs and pulverized by artillery that will be pinpointed down on any unit that comes to a standstill in the open in 2-3 minutes could easily destroy a large part of one of the US’s carefully constructed elite brigades. Ukraine cost. .

On the other hand, the price is clear: the Russian military is at a desperate point of weakness, and this may be Ukraine’s only chance to liberate most, if not all, of the occupied territory.

After anticipating a short, easy war of conquest, it was not until the end of last year that Russian leaders began to seriously prepare for a long war. Their factories and training facilities are still trying to adapt to a vastly increased demand for equipment and troops.

Therefore, Russian troops at the front are short of ammunition, spare parts, reinforcements, reserves and morale.

However, this will not last forever – the Russian leadership has every reason to put its military production in order and a ruthlessly coercive state apparatus to enforce their will. Western support capacity is also not unlimited.

Ukraine is probably as strong militarily as it can be sustainable in the short term. As a result, the stakes for the counter-offensive are extremely high.

Ukrainian forces, no matter how brave, motivated and skillfully led, will face destructive firepower and very tough Russian defenses. There will almost certainly be setbacks and heavy losses.

However, with no mobile reserves of any significance, the Russian military faces an extremely difficult situation if Ukrainian forces manage to make a significant breakthrough and push through mobile forces on a massive scale.

So far, Russian forces have largely withdrawn in good order from Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson. That saved many of their formations and much equipment that would have been lost in defeat.

However, with the balance of power at a critical point; if Ukraine can break through on a large scale, we could see a large-scale Russian defeat for the first time in this war.