Fox, Trump and Millennial Movement

Most of that shift in turnout is among black voters. In these studies, the black share of likely voters among millennials allowed to vote in 2012 fell from 14 percent between 2012 and 2020 to 10 percent. This would have reduced Obama’s support among millennials by about 1.5 points. The effect is more muted for Mr. Biden, as he won black voters by a narrower margin than Mr. Obama.

Is it just about Obama?

mr. Of course, Obama didn’t just benefit from a strong voter turnout. He was loved by younger voters in a way that was definitely not the case for Mr. Biden. Is it possible that the only thing that’s changed in the last decade is that the Democrats have gone from nominating someone loved by young people to someone relatively strong among older Americans?

Yes, that’s a possibility. With this data, it’s hard to know whether the Democrats’ showing up with younger voters reflects unsustainable strength or growing underlying weakness. Nor is it possible to disentangle the effect of Mr Trump’s Republican nomination compared to Mitt Romney.

But there’s another opportunity to benchmark shifts among millennials: John Kerry in 2004. According to this data, Mr. Kerry won 57 percent of the oldest millennials eligible to vote in that election, then between the ages of 18 and 23. that cohort won 61 percent in 2012, a marked improvement, but not much of a sign of truly particular appeal. By 2020, Mr Biden won just 54 percent of these once young voters.

Is it just your data?

The figures from the previous newsletter approximate the average of the various election studies with data up to 2008 or 2012: the American National Election Study, the Cooperative Election Study and the Catalist estimates.

It’s a bit difficult to make a simple, exact comparison between the data I used and the other election surveys because the other sources don’t always provide the same age ranges. But the easiest way is to look at the categories they do have in common: those 18 to 29 in 2012 and 30 to 44 in 2020. No, they’re not the same groups of people. In fact, almost half of the group aged 30 to 44 was already older in 2020 than those aged 18 to 29 in 2012.

But on average, the studies show almost the same findings. The other surveys show that Obama won 62 percent of those 18 to 29 in 2012, while Biden won 56 percent of those 30 to 44 in 2020. In our recent newsletter, we showed that 63 percent went to Mr. Obama and 56 percent for Mr. Biden for their respective groups. And the various more detailed cuts – when available – continue to show great similarity. This suggests that they would likely also show similar findings for the more exact age cohorts in question.