Two words that can change the world

It’s just two little words. They appear on just one page of an 11,000 word document.

But the inclusion of the term “fossil fuels” in the COP28 final agreement marks a potentially trajectory-changing moment in the fight against climate change. The global pact calls for “the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner.”

For nearly thirty years, negotiators representing countries around the world had struggled and failed to reach a clear consensus: that the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas must be phased out to prevent further catastrophic warming of prevent the earth.

But overnight, representatives from more than 170 countries struck a surprising deal, especially in Dubai.

The text is not as clear as many leaders, activists and scholars had hoped. It contains caveats and wiggle room, and is non-binding. Nevertheless, the inclusion of explicit language calling for a shift away from coal, oil and gas is being hailed as a major breakthrough.

“After 30 years of UN climate negotiations, countries have finally shifted the focus to the polluting fossil fuels driving the climate crisis,” said Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, who served as president of COP20 in 2014 and now works for the World Wildlife Foundation. “This outcome should mark the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.”

The agreement to transition away from fossil fuels was reached in the United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s largest oil producers. The president of COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, is also head of the UAE’s state oil company and has faced scathing criticism for his conflict of interest.

But after two weeks of negotiations, it was Al Jaber who finally incorporated his words about ending fossil fuels into the final COP agreement.

“The much-criticized UAE presidency has done this,” said Myles Allen, a climate scientist at the University of Oxford. told Bloomberg. “Everyone seemed ready 24 hours ago to write off COP28, you have to hand it to them.”

In Dubai, many sleep-deprived diplomats celebrated the outcome.

“There is a strange, very optimistic feeling here, compared to the angry mood of a day and a half ago,” a negotiator told me via WhatsApp, haggard after two weeks of non-stop meetings.

The festivities will likely be short-lived. This year was the hottest year on record, and scientists expect 2024 to be just as hot, if not hotter, as the El Niño climate pattern further exacerbates the warming caused by fossil fuels. Production of oil, gas and coal continues to rise. Fossil fuel companies plan for decades of increased production, and many countries still rely on fossil fuels for revenues and economic growth.

If COP28 really wants to make a difference, more is needed than an ambitious declaration. It will require policymakers to make substantive changes in their countries that will rapidly scale up renewable energy and improve energy efficiency. It will entail major changes in the global financial system to provide more capital to developing countries. It will require fundamental changes in the food system, serious efforts to protect nature and new technological advances.

But sometimes the arc of history can begin to shift with just two little words.

The world is responding to the new climate agreement

Officials, advocates and scientists from around the world have responded to the final COP28 declaration. Here’s a selection of what they said:

“The deal isn’t perfect, but one thing is clear: the world is no longer in denial about our harmful addiction to fossil fuels.” — Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme.

“A crucial test now is whether much more money is mobilized for developing countries to make the energy transition possible.” — Ani Dasgupta, president of the World Resources Institute.

“Every investor should now understand that the future investments that are profitable and long-term are renewable energy – and investing in fossil fuels is a lost asset.” — Jennifer Morgan, the German climate envoy, told Bloomberg.

“We have made incremental progress from ‘business as usual’, when what we really need is an exponential step change in our actions.” — Samoa representative Anne Rasmussen on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States.

“This is a historic milestone on the path to the transition away from fossil fuels – a development that seemed virtually impossible even two years ago. But we must be aware that this is the bare minimum.” — Sir David King, Founder and Chairman of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group.

“Some activists were disappointed that we had not committed to an immediate phase-out of fossil fuels. But without the trade, investment and finance to achieve this, it would have hit developing countries hardest or would have been pointless.” — Avinash Persaud, Barbados’ Special Climate Envoy.

“We’re not happy about it, but we all agree.” — Delegate of the Russian Federation Mikhail Gitarskiyaccording to CNBC.

— Manuela Andreoni