During Chaotic Retreat, hundreds of Ukrainian troops feared being captured or missing

According to senior Western officials and soldiers who fought for Ukraine, hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have been captured by advancing Russian units or disappeared during Ukraine's chaotic retreat from the eastern city of Avdiivka, a devastating loss that could deal a blow to already weakening morale .

The Russian capture of Avdiivka has emerged as a significant symbolic loss for Ukrainian forces, a sign of the battlefield impact of the US Congress' inability so far to approve more military aid as dwindling supplies of artillery shells making it even more difficult to maintain them. the line.

Estimates of how many Ukrainians have been captured or are missing vary, and an accurate count may not be possible until Ukraine has fortified new defense lines outside the city. But two soldiers with knowledge of Ukraine's withdrawal estimate that 850 to 1,000 soldiers appear to have been captured or are missing. Western officials said this range appeared accurate.

U.S. officials say the loss of Avdiivka is not a significant strategic setback, arguing that Russian gains in eastern Ukraine will not necessarily lead to a collapse of Ukrainian lines and that Moscow is unlikely to be able to follow up on another major offensive.

But the capture of hundreds of soldiers could change that calculus. U.S. officials have said in recent days that morale among Ukrainian troops is already eroding after a failed counteroffensive last year and the ousting of a top commander. Because of these problems, officials said, the Ukrainian military is having difficulty recruiting.

Ukrainian military officials have said they want to mobilize another 500,000 people, but the request has faced political resistance and stalled in parliament. The capture of hundreds of soldiers, especially those with battlefield experience, would make the need for more troops more acute and complicate efforts to recruit more troops.

As a result, the fall of Avdiivka may be more important than it initially seemed.

The Ukrainian military command has acknowledged that some soldiers were captured during the retreat from Avdiivka, but has tried to play down the numbers and significance.

On Saturday, General Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the commander of Ukrainian military fighting in the area, said: on the Telegram messaging application that the retreat had gone according to plan, but that “in the final phase of the operation, under pressure from the superior forces of the enemy, some Ukrainian soldiers were captured.” He did not reveal how many troops were captured.

Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for General Tarnavsky, disputed reports that hundreds of soldiers had been captured, calling it misinformation. But he acknowledged that Russia had captured some soldiers and that a “certain number” of soldiers were missing.

But some soldiers and Western officials said the inability to carry out an orderly withdrawal, and the chaos that unfolded Friday and Saturday as defenses collapsed, were directly responsible for what appears to be a significant number of soldiers captured.

They said the Ukrainian withdrawal was poorly planned and started too late. The soldiers and Western officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence assessments that contradict the Ukrainian government's statements.

Withdrawing under withering artillery fire, drones and airstrikes is one of the most difficult military maneuvers, challenging commanders to minimize loss of life and allow units to fall back without ceding more land than intended.

Based on interviews with soldiers, Ukrainian forces were unprepared for how quickly the Russian advance in Avdiivka gained strength last week.

Ukraine tried to buy time for its regular infantry forces to withdraw from the city, using their special operations forces and the elite 3rd Separate Assault Brigade to cover the retreat. But the units could not slow the Russian advance or get every Ukrainian soldier out.

Senior Ukrainian officials say Russian forces have also suffered heavy losses in the battle. Russia captured Avdiivka en masse, sending troops and armored vehicles until the Ukrainian defenses collapsed. Thousands of Russian soldiers were killed and wounded, officials said.

A chaotic retreat is not inevitable. Withdrawing troops without suffering heavy losses is difficult, according to American strategists, but possible if done in a deliberate, undisturbed operation.

In Avdiivka, Ukraine seemed to have waited too long to withdraw and the frantic retreat quickly became costly.

For the Ukrainians, the challenge of withdrawing from Avdiivka was compounded by the fact that Russia had surrounded the city on almost three sides. A single paved road was the most feasible way to get in and out of the city. That route, which Ukrainian forces called the Road of Life, came under direct threat earlier this month, making the withdrawal much more dangerous.

As Ukrainian forces began to withdraw, unverified open source videos and photos showed units retreating under artillery fire and bodies strewn along roads and in tree lines. Ukrainian military units have long had difficulty communicating with each other because they often have different radio equipment. Soldiers with knowledge of the retreat said communications problems were a factor in the withdrawal, which led to soldiers being captured, killed and injured.

The soldiers interviewed by The New York Times suggested that some units withdrew before others were aware of the retreat. This put the remaining units at risk of being surrounded by the Russians.

Since the start of the war almost two years ago, Russian forces have attempted to encircle and capture Ukrainian forces. Although well-prepared defenses and drones have prevented many of these maneuvers from succeeding, the Russian encirclement in Avdiivka appears to have worked. Western officials suggest the maneuver was one reason soldiers were captured during the retreat.

Unverified videos posted on social media also showed Russian forces executing Ukrainian forces in and around Avdiivka. The prosecutor's office in the eastern Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine announced this on Sunday said on Telegram it launched an investigation “into the shootings of unarmed Ukrainian prisoners of war in Avdiivka and Vesele.”

The Kremlin itself appears unprepared for the speed of the Ukrainian collapse in Avdiivka. Often, Kremlin propaganda pushed through state-controlled news media drives the themes on Russian social media, said Jonathan Teubner, the CEO of FilterLabs AI, which studies Russian reporting and public opinion. But as Ukrainian defenses collapsed in Avdiivka, discussions on Russian social media began to shift before the Kremlin came up with new messages.

“Russia wasn't really prepared for this either in terms of a prepared propaganda blitz,” Mr. Teubner said. “They have now responded, but have not yet been able to launch a successful coordinated messaging campaign.”

Prisoners of war pose one of the greatest challenges to morale in any war. Ukraine has repeatedly pressured Russia to agree to the prisoner exchange.

From November the That's what the Ukrainian government said that Russia had 3,574 Ukrainian soldiers in captivity.

In January, Ukraine used a Western-supplied Patriot missile to shoot down a Russian cargo plane that officials believed was carrying missiles and ammunition. Russian officials said it was carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war. U.S. officials have said it appeared likely that some Ukrainian prisoners were on the plane.