The US says it believes ISIS was behind the bombing that killed dozens in Iran

U.S. officials believe Wednesday’s bombing in Kerman, Iran, was most likely the work of Islamic State — a preliminary assessment based on intelligence, according to four U.S. officials, who cautioned that no definitive conclusions have yet been drawn.

Two regional ones Military officials also said they believed Islamic State carried out the attack, which killed 84 people during a memorial ceremony at the grave of Major General Qassim Suleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike four years ago.

Some Iranian leaders initially appeared to blame Israel for the attack, but U.S. officials said early intelligence assessments indicated Israel was not behind the explosions. Although Israel is believed to have conducted regular covert operations in Iran, these have typically been targeted operations against specific individuals, Iranian scientists or officials, or attacks to destroy nuclear or weapons facilities.

The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, warned that their assessment of the bombings could evolve.

Iran observed a national day of mourning on Thursday to honor the victims of the twin explosions, which occurred not only at a tense moment in the Middle East but also on a highly symbolic day for some Iranians – the fourth anniversary of General Suleimani. General Suleimani, the powerful military leader considered a malign force in the West, is revered among many Iranians, especially those who support the government.

Iranian officials had put the death toll from the two blasts at 103 on Wednesday. But the Minister of Interior, Ahmad Vahidi, said Thursday that 84 had been killed, according to Tasnim, a semi-official news agency.

During a visit to a hospital treating people injured in the explosions, Mr Vahidi said the death toll could rise again because of the serious condition of some of the injured. A total of 284 people were injured in the attack, including 220 who were still hospitalized in Kerman, many of whom were in stable condition or required minor operations, he said, according to Tasnim.

Iranian leaders continued to denounce what they called a terrorist attack and vowed to punish the perpetrators. But so far they had not escalated their rhetoric against Israel.

“The blind and hateful act was intended to cause insecurity in the country and to take revenge on the love and devotion of the great nation of Iran, especially its industrious young generation, for the martyr Qassim Suleimani,” said a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Corps, according to Fars, another semi-official news agency. The Revolutionary Guard is the powerful military security apparatus of which General Suleimani was a top leader.

Six Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss such intelligence matters, strongly denied that Israel played any role in the attack.

If Islamic State were behind the bombings in Iran, it would mark a bloody revival for the group, which has been decimated by years of attacks from an American-led coalition in the region.

U.S. officials said that if the Islamic State were found responsible, it was unlikely the group’s intention was to blame Israel for the bombings or spark a broader war. Instead, the country could have seized an opportunity to strike an enemy: Islamic State, a Sunni Islamist group, has long been opposed to Iran, which has a Shiite Islamist government.

The group has claimed responsibility several previous attacks across Iran, including most recently in October 2022, when a gunman killed thirteen people at a shrine in the city of Shiraz.

Mick Mulroy, who served as a Pentagon official in the Trump administration, said Islamic State could have carried out the attack because it “has no love lost” for Iran. “But it seems a strange time to launch an attack with the current conflict in Gaza and the united Islamic support for the Palestinians,” he said.

Colin P. Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst at the Soufan Group, a security consultancy based in New York, said he suspected the Islamic State’s Khorasan affiliate, also known as ISIS-K, as a likely perpetrator of the attack.

“ISIS-K has demonstrated both the intent and the ability to attack targets within Iran itself,” Mr. Clarke said. “ISIS-K wants to attack Iran because Tehran is the most prominent Shia power and the anger of ISIS-K’s highly sectarian agenda. More than other ISIS branches, ISIS-K propaganda continually focuses on denigrating Shias as apostates.”

Mr Clarke said the attack on the memorial ceremony, a highly symbolic and sectarian target given General Suleimani’s status as the architect of the Tehran-led Shiite axis in the region, was in keeping with the group’s method of attack.

But even if Israel – one of Iran’s long-time archenemies – is not responsible, Iran is “likely to get a lot of propaganda effort out of blaming the Israelis directly” or making the Iranians believe Israel was responsible, Mr Clarke said .

Tasnim, the news agency, reported that the first explosion occurred at 3:04 pm on Wednesday as people crowded the road leading to General Suleimani’s grave. The second blast came 13 minutes later, the report said.

Another semi-official news agency, IRNA, quoted a police spokesman as saying that three police officers had been killed in the explosions while trying to help other victims.

The commemoration ceremony was held to mark the fourth anniversary of the assassination of General Suleimani during a US drone strike at Baghdad airport in January 2020. Similar ceremonies are held annually in honor of the general.

Leily Nikounazar, Erik Schmitt And David E. Sanger reporting contributed.