How Democrats hope to overcome a discouraging folder from the Senate from 2026

Senator Chuck Schumer and his allies work aggressively to stretch a senate map that offers valuable opportunities for Democrats to reclaim a majority in 2026, who recruit deep in the most conservative corners of the country to find viable candidates in Red States.

Democrats have become more bullish about their medium term as President Trump approval assessment Passed. “We will be in the majority in 2027”, Mr Schumer, the minority leader from New York, well -predicted last month.

But Democrats also confront the brutal reality of a map where all 22 Republican seats for elections in states are that Mr Trump bears at least 10 percentage points in 2024.

Winning on such a hostile territory has become increasingly difficult as senate competitions increasingly connect With presidential voices. Republicans now occupy every chair in the United States that Mr Trump won all three times that he was at the mood, which driven their majority of 53 seats.

To break that stranglehold, Mr. Schumer calls Beyond and present politicians in the hope of landing earlier winners of the Red-State. Some, such as former Senator Sherrod Brown from Ohio and former Gov. Roy Cooper from North Carolina, could immediately make the races of their states more competitive.

But party strategists also think outside the frameworks, looking for political lottery tickets in places such as Alaska, Mississippi and Texas. Some even talk quietly about supporting independent candidates instead of Democrats in particularly challenging states, including Nebraska, where the independent Dan Osborn is considering a second senate run.

“This card is much intriguing than in the first instance in mind,” says Justin Barasky, a democratic strategist that has been working on senate races for years. “There will be a set of states that are incredibly competitive that people may not think about.”

For the time being, Democrats strive to place as many politically viable boats as possible in the water in the event that a large recoil to Mr Trump is developing.

In order to have a chance of control, Democrats must venture far beyond the two clearly competitive states: Maine, where the moderate reputation of Susan Collins has enabled her to succeed as a Republican, and North Carolina, a battlefield where Senator Thom Tillis, another Republican, is looking for re -election.

And that doesn’t even take into account all territory democrats. From retirement by the senators of the party, seats opened in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, and Senator Jon Ossoff is looking for re -election in Georgia. Republicans had hoped that Gov. Brian Kemp would challenge him, but Mr. Kemp said Monday That he would not run.

Alex Lattcham, the executive director of the leading Senate Republican Super Pac, is convinced to retain the majority.

“Democrats are delusions,” he said. “We welcome their efforts to waste resources in states that they will never win. We are going to get hell out.”

A narrow card to start

Republicans are determined not to be caught on sleeping in apparently safe states, especially after Mr. Osborn forced the Gop To climb to save Senator Deb Fischer.

Senator Tim Scott from South Carolina, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has told colleagues that a top priority is to prevent you from spending money in places that should not be competitive. Every Republican senator who runs in 2026 is expected to have concluded a critical fundraising agreement with the party in mid -May.

The seats held by the Republicans that everyone agrees with them are competitive in North Carolina and Maine.

In North CarolinaMr. Schumer chased Mr Cooper and told him during a conversation about disaster relief last year that he would make a large senate candidate, according to a person who was informed in the call. It is unlikely that Mr Cooper will make a decision for at least another month, according to two people who have informed his thinking.

In MaineIt is less clear who wants to run Democrats against Mrs. Collins. Janet Mills government, 77, has left the door open, but some in the party are worried about her age. Representative Jared Golden has shown interest in the office throughout the state and occupies a Pro-Trump seat, but some Democrats do not like his moderate positions. A former conference employee, Jordan Wood, is Already.

The next level

The next level of races is once in competitive states that went out of the grip of Democrats. That includes OhioWhere senator Jon Husted, the Republican who has been appointed to fulfill the seat of vice -president JD Vance, must and must stand the election IowaWhere Senator Joni Ernst is looking for her third term.

Mrs. Ernst weakened some Republican critics when they are under pressure reverse Pete Hegseeth for Defense Minister. She has already drawn a democratic challenger named Nathan Sage, who invoices herself as a mechanic, a marine and the product of a trailer park. Are kick -off video Was filled with profession of working class: “I am fighting for a democratic party that people like me want to be part of.”

JD Scholten, a state legislator who and narrowly lost a 2018 congress in the most conservative district of Iowa, said he is considering a senate campaign. He is a rare democrat in the northwest of the state – “a blueberry in a bowl of tomato soup,” he said – and recently held meetings in other parts of the state. (Timing on a campaign can be complicated by his other job as a 45-year-old professional baseball thrower; he just signed with the Sioux City Explorers.)

Zach Wahls, a senator of the state of Iowa who burst on the political radar as A teenager who testifies about growing up with two motherssaid he also explored a senate run. “Ernst is vulnerable,” he said.

The longer photos

The last bucket races is the largest and most discouraging: states that are solid red, but where Democrats hope that a combination of fortune, uniquely strong challengers, bloody Gop prosecution and a poor environment 2026 can give them a chance for Republicans. That list includes Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Carolina and Texas.

The top potential democratic recruit Alaska Is Mary Peltola, a former congressman who Normally her chair lost in 2024 and has since become a member A lobby and law firm. But instead she can run to the governor or even try to return to the house. Anton McParland, her former Chief of Staff, said she was probably months removed from a decision, although he added: “No Alaskan really wants to be in DC”

Mr Schumer has told employees that he sees an intriguing opportunity Mississippithat the largest percentage of black inhabitants of each state has. A possible candidate there is Scott Colom, a public prosecutor who by President Joseph R. Biden Jr. was appointed as a federal Judges-Alleen to be blocked by Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, against whom Mr. Colom would run in 2026. The state is also attractive for Democrats because it is small and is relatively cheap to compete.

Democrats also hope that states with bruises of Republican primary races can create openings, although Democrats themselves are faced with potentially messy primaries in Minnesota And Michigan.

In LouisianaMr Schumer spoke by telephone and once met in Washington with former government John Bel Edwards, a Democrat, according to a person who was informed about their conversations. Senator Bill Cassidy, the Republican established operator, is confronted with at least one primary challenger after voting to condemn Mr Trump during his second accusation process. Mr Edwards has indicated to party leaders to return him closer to August, the person said.

In KentuckyRepublicans look like the way to A three -way primary scrum To replace the jerking Senator Mitch McConnell. But Democrats still have to get a prominent candidate. Mr. Schumer has Gov. Andy Beshear, a democrat, forced to consider a run, but Mr. Beshear seems more interested in a presidential bid from 2028. “I said no to Senate,” he said in a short interview.

In TexasDemocrats are stimulated by A republican primary Between senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton who is expected to be expensive and ugly – although the winner will still be strong.

“There is now a civil war that is rolling in Texas through the Republican party,” said former representative Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat who broke fundraising data during his failed offer in 2018. He said in an interview that he would consider running again if it is “where I am most useful.”

Terry Virts, a former commander of astronaut and international space station, has sustained Democrats, including Mr O’Rourke, because he is seriously considering a campaign, according to a person who has been informed about his deliberations. He started sharing more political opinions – such as his opposition against Elon Musk – with a social media that he followed partially collected through his space photography.

Colin Allred, a democratic former congressman who Last year lost to Senator Ted Cruz With nine points after collecting nearly $ 100 million, said he “seriously considered” a new run and would decide in the summer.

“It will not depend on what other people do,” he said in an interview. “I made that clear to everyone who was asked.”

Another option for Democrats is to prevent a candidate completely – and to support an independent candidate instead. That strategy made recent varieties more competitive in Alaska, Utah and Nebraska, although the Republicans eventually prevailed.

In NebraskaMr. Osborn is investigating a second independent run on a populist message. A navy veteran and mechanic, he surpassed former vice -president Kamala Harris and forced republicans to spend millions of dollars to keep the seat last year. Mr. Osborn reported several large donations from National Democrats after the elections.

Paul Rieckhoff, who runs the group of independent veterans of America, predicted that no fewer than five independent senate candidates in the form of Mr. Osborn could walk in 2026, although he acknowledged that Mr. Osborn probably would have a hill to climb “as a second candidate.

“He doesn’t get a second bite in that,” said Joanna Rodriguez, a spokeswoman for the Senate Republicans, about the attempts of Mr. Osborn to walk as independent.

Last week an independent candidate, Brian Bengs, the South Dakota Senate race after having lost a hard time as Democrat in 2022. That year he said in an interview, he met many voters who agreed with him, just to add that they would never vote for him.

“They made every opportunity excluded to support me,” he said, “because the letter D was next to my name.”

Reid J. Epstein contributed reporting.