The use of air conditioning will increase in a warming world, the UN warns

The future of a warming planet: As global temperatures rise, more people will turn to air conditioning to ward off the heat.

But the increase in cooling of buildings and other spaces, which is also driven by rising incomes, population growth and urbanization, means the world could use more than double the electricity it now uses to keep cool, new research shows. United Nations study published on Tuesday. during the global climate talks in Dubai.

The increase in electricity consumption, in turn, threatens to increase greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming, heating the planet to even more dangerous extremes. Special refrigerant gases used in air conditioners and refrigerators are also potent greenhouse gases when leaked into the atmosphere.

If current trends hold, 10 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 could come from air conditioning and other cool-headed efforts, the U.N. report said.

“The refrigeration sector must grow to protect everyone from rising temperatures,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program. “But this growth should not be at the expense of the energy transition and greater consequences for the climate.”

Many new developments and actions – including adopting ‘passive’ cooling technology such as improved insulation and reflective surfaces – can help keep the world cooler without significantly increasing energy consumption, Ms Andersen said. Boosting energy efficiency and gradually reducing climate-warming refrigerant gases can also help curb cooling-related emissions, the report said.

There’s no doubt that the world needs more cooling. An analysis published this year by a consortium of nonprofits, governments and companies estimated that 1.2 billion people in 77 countries are at high risk of poor health and livelihoods due to lack of access to refrigeration.

Many of the world’s most vulnerable people have limited or no access to modern cooling technology such as air conditioning and refrigerators at home, school or work, the new UN report says. Lack of refrigeration also reduces the incomes of millions of farmers, causes food loss and hinders universal access to vaccines.

At the same time, average temperatures on Earth are rising. This year is “almost certainly” the warmest year on record, the World Meteorological Organization announced last week. The past nine years have been the hottest nine of the 174 years of recorded scientific observations.

As the planet warms, the installed capacity of cooling equipment worldwide will triple by 2050 under current policies, the report estimates. And even with increasingly energy-efficient technology, electricity consumption will more than double.

This threatens to put pressure on electricity grids, especially in developing countries. By 2050, 67 percent of cooling capacity will be in developing countries, compared to less than 50 percent now, the report said.

According to the report, much of the potential for reducing emissions lies in the world’s richest economies. Adopting energy codes for buildings that explicitly include “passive” cooling, such as designs that increase natural shade and ventilation, are particularly effective.

These passive cooling measures – coupled with faster energy efficiency improvements and a stricter phase-out of highly polluting refrigerants called hydrofluorocarbons – could reduce projected emissions by more than 60 percent by 2050, the authors estimate.

In addition, a rapid transition to renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy to air conditioning systems could further reduce cooling-related emissions.