Could this be the end for Anthony Albanese? TWO polls show support plummeting as two key states turn against the prime minister

Anthony Albanese’s support among women and middle-aged voters has fallen sharply as the prime minister loses support in key states that decided the last election, two polls show.

The cost of living crisis is hurting Labor politically after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates for the thirteenth time in eighteen months in November.

With inflation still high, Labor is losing support from people aged 35 to 49 battling rising mortgage repayments as female voters also turn away from the government, the latest Newspoll shows.

The decline in Albanese’s favor has also fallen in two key battlegrounds: NSW and Western Australia, where Labor won four Perth seats from the Liberal Party at the last election.

Labor is trailing in Queensland, where the party has no seats in regional areas that vote Labor at state level.

The research, conducted for The Australianwas based on a poll of 3,655 voters from October 31 to December 15.

Another survey from the Resolve Political Monitor for The Age looked at responses from 4,818 voters across three surveys from October to December.

Labour’s two-party lead over the Coalition fell for the 35 to 49 age group, according to the latest Newspoll.

This election-deciding demographic group saw its support drop from 56-44 to 53-47.

More and more women are also turning away from the Albanian government: 36 percent support the coalition, while 30 percent initially prefer Labor.

Nationally, support for Albanese over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton fell from 51-31 to 46-35, with the Prime Minister losing favor in NSW and Queensland.

Within NSW, his approval rating dropped from 50 percent to 39 percent.

In Queensland, Mr Dutton has won support as prime minister of choice, with 41 per cent of voters polled by Newspoll backing the fellow Queenslander, compared to 40 per cent backing Mr Albanese.

Queensland was considered ground zero during the 2019 election, which was won by Scott Morrison.

The Sunshine State held the most marginal seats of the major parties and was a priority for Mr Morrison and Bill Shorten on the campaign trail.

NSW, the prime minister’s home state, is considered the most important state for Labor because it is home to 47 of the House of Representatives’ 151 MPs.

Of Labor’s 20 most marginal seats federally, 10 are in NSW, including Gilmore on the south coast by a 0.2 per cent margin.

Labor holds just five of Queensland’s 30 seats, and none north of Brisbane, unlike previous Labor premiers.

Meanwhile, among those aged 18 to 34, Labor has a comfortable lead of 66-34 over the Coalition.

The Coalition leads in support based on a Labor primary vote of 36-34, the Newspoll showed. Labor leads by a two-party advantage, 52-48.

Mr Albanese has also maintained his lead in Western Australia, with his party improving its two-party preferred lead of 53-47 per cent to 54-46 per cent.

About 43 percent prefer Mr Albanese as prime minister, compared to 32 percent who voted for Mr Dutton.

However, the Resolve Political Monitor showed support for Albanese’s dip in Western Australia, with the primary vote share falling from 38 percent to 34 percent – lower than the last election.

In contrast to the Newspoll, according to the Resolve Political Monitor survey, 39 per cent of Queenslanders supported Mr Albanese, while Mr Dutton received less support at 32 per cent.

However, Labor’s primary vote share in Queensland has fallen from 37 per cent to 33 per cent.

Albanese was the favorite prime minister of 43 percent of voters, compared to Dutton’s 27 percent.

Among female voters, 42 percent rated Albanese’s performance as poor in the Resolve survey, while 39 percent said the same for Mr Dutton.

But the cost of living will be a distant memory when voters go to the polls in 2025.

The Commonwealth Bank expects six rate cuts in 2024 and 2025.

This would cut the Reserve Bank’s interest rate from a 12-year high of 4.35 percent to 2.85 percent at the end of 2025.

ANZ expects inflation to fall to 4.1 percent in November – down from the level of 4.9 percent in October.

That means there will be no interest rate hike in February, with the Treasury Department expecting wages to finally exceed inflation in 2024 for the first time since 2021.

Economist Stephen Koukoulas, the economic adviser to former Labor Prime Minister Julia Gillard, said Labor was likely to be re-elected with a majority or a minority, with support from the Teals.

“Labour will win that election based on likely economic conditions: solid wage growth, low inflation, falling interest rates and budget surpluses,” he said on X.