An analogy between Trump and Clinton that could offer Biden comfort

Trump's weakness among Republican-leaning voters did not stem solely from questioning whether he could do his job effectively. Many Republicans felt repulsed by his insults against ethnic groups, John McCain's military service, or his treatment of women — including the “Access Hollywood” tape. Many opposed his views on trade, immigration and foreign policy. Others questioned his commitment to conservative causes, such as opposing abortion rights. Likewise, many traditionally Democratic voters are skeptical of Biden's handling of the economy or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But as with Mr. Biden and today's age issue, Mr. Trump's inexperience and unpresidential behavior was a major aspect of their doubts.

Facing these challenges, Mr. Trump would have lost by a wide margin if his opponent had not been Hillary Clinton — a candidate under criminal investigation (later dropped) and whom polls showed him to dislike almost as much him as he. She would probably have one underdog against a more typical Republican, and she was also deeply vulnerable to Trump's populist criticism of establishment-backed policies on immigration, foreign policy and trade.

Together, her weaknesses and those of Mr. Trump left the race in an odd place. An unusually high percentage of voters said they were undecided whether to support a minor party candidate, with Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson peaking. almost 10 percent. Trump's populist argument delivered huge gains among white voters without a college degree, but she maintained a modest lead, on the margins of defections among Republican voters. As I said on November 2, 2016:

[Mr. Trump] has failed to harness the strength of working-class white voters, in part because of its weakness among Republican-leaning voters in the same states.

It's an odd position for Mr. Trump. In a sense, he's already done the hard part: He's accomplished what Republicans have long wanted in places like Green Bay, Wisconsin, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, but he's not even approaching traditional Republican benchmarks in the suburbs around Philadelphia and Milwaukee .

This could change quickly if he could do the easy part and consolidate Republican voters — which would add to his strength among white working-class voters.

Ultimately, Mr. Trump was able to do the easy part: Republican voters consolidated around him in the final days of the race. Trump's recovery among those voters was not entirely surprising. Mrs. Clinton was indeed trying to appeal to Republican voters, but as a Democrat whom Republicans had opposed for decades, she was ill-suited for the task.

At the same time, there was nothing inevitable about Trump's victory. These late-deciding voters didn't necessarily do that want to to support him. They were not “shy” Trump supporters guarding a closely guarded secret. According to polls, they didn't like him, they didn't support him, they didn't want to vote for him, and in many cases they only made the choice when they felt they absolutely had to: in the voting booth. And until they decided otherwise, they might as well have stayed home or voted for Mr. Johnson. Millions of voters have made exactly that choice.

Does every detail of this story correspond to 2024? No, not at all, but there is a lot that seems similar to today's polls. As with Mr. Trump in 2016, the polls show that a clear majority of voters do not believe Mr. Biden has what it takes to be an effective president. Partly as a result, he is facing surprising defections from Democratic-leaning constituencies.