In China, Blinken faces clashing agendas and a question: will Xi show up?

Antony J. Blinken landed in Beijing on Sunday morning, making him the first US Secretary of State to visit since 2018. Strained relations have delayed the trip for months: He had planned to visit in February but postponed after the Pentagon announced that a Chinese surveillance balloon was floating over the continental United States.

Mr Blinken and other US officials have expressed hope that the visit will usher in a more constructive era of diplomacy. But China has taken a confrontational stance in recent weeks, expressing concern that meetings in Beijing could become more hostile than friendly.

Both sides are bringing a list of grievances and issues to discuss in two days of meetings that are likely to provide a critical gauge of whether China and the United States can soon mend the fences.

What problems are on Blinken’s list?

US officials have stressed that restoring high-level diplomacy is their priority. They say the two sides should establish communication channels to ease existing tensions that could escalate during a crisis, such as a naval or aircraft collision in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea.

Security issues are likely to weigh heavily. US officials have become increasingly concerned about close contacts with the Chinese military in the seas around China. The United States is also closely monitoring Chinese efforts to establish military bases in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, and has warned China not to give lethal military aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

Mr. Blinken plans to talk to Chinese officials about global issues where the two nations may have shared interests, including climate change and global economic stability, said Daniel J. Kritenbrink, the State Department’s top East Asian official.

Mr Blinken is also likely to ask China to release some US citizens who are detained, imprisoned or banned from leaving the country, and to try to restart some people-to-people exchanges. That could include expanding the small number of journalist visas each country had agreed to give each other early in the Biden administration before relations deteriorated.

US officials also say they expect to talk to China about limiting the export of substances used to make fentanyl, a drug that has led to a deadly addiction problem in the United States and other countries.

What is China likely to say?

China is expected to raise a litany of grievances that reflect Beijing’s view that the United States is a declining hegemony determined to stay in power by restraining China economically, militarily and diplomatically.

At the top of China’s list is Taiwan, a de facto independent island that Beijing claims as its own territory and receives military aid from Washington.

China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has described Taiwan as “the core of China’s core interests” and has accused the United States of supporting “pro-independence” forces and interfering in China’s internal affairs.

China is also likely to express deep frustration at US-led efforts to restrict Chinese access to advanced semiconductor chips and manufacturing equipment. The restrictions, which the United States says are necessary to prevent American technology from falling into the hands of the People’s Liberation Army, could delay China’s technological development for years. China sees the ban as an example of “zero-sum competition” driving the two countries toward confrontation.

Despite China’s rapid military buildup, Beijing is expected to accuse Washington of provoking conflict by deepening security ties with regional powers including Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and India.

China says it ultimately wants the United States to treat it as an equal power so that it has equal say on the world stage and does not feel threatened by the US military presence in Asia.

Will Xi meet Blinken in person?

A big question that hangs during the journey is whether Mr. Blinken will meet Mr. Xi. US and Chinese officials spent the last week working out the final details of Mr Blinken’s schedule, and confirmation of a meeting between the two may not arrive until the last minute. Much will depend on how Sunday and early Monday meetings go.

However, the two men have spoken to each other before. Mr Blinken has met Mr Xi on several occasions, including in 2011 when he traveled to Beijing and Chengdu as the national security adviser to Mr Biden, who was then the vice president and charged with traveling to China to meet Mr. getting to know Biden. Xi, his counterpart at the time.

Possibly plead for an action by Mr. Xi for his and other Chinese officials’ efforts to put on a more diplomatic face to the world recently, including his hosting a series of foreign leaders in China this year.

Viviane Wang reporting contributed.