EU turns to the right: Europe faces a new reality, with polls suggesting populist gains in this week’s elections – which will see huge changes in policies such as immigration and climate change

Almost 400 million voters will descend on polling stations across the continent for EU elections this week as politicians battle it out for 720 seats in European Parliament. 

The EU elections are the world’s second-biggest exercise in democracy behind the election in India, and after a period of what seems like perma-crisis with the Covid-19 pandemic, surging costs and the war in Ukraine, the stakes seem higher than ever. 

The results will have an impact on issues ranging from global climate policies and defence to migration and geopolitical relations with China and the United States – not to mention the extent to which Europe will continue to support troops in Kyiv as they battle Vladimir Putin’s forces.

Since the last EU election in 2019, populist, far-right and extremist parties now lead governments in three EU nations, are part of governing coalitions in several others, and appear to have surging public support across the continent.

But a lack of unity among the right-wing elements of Europe means the leading candidates are spread across several political groups. 

Here, MailOnline breaks down everything you need to know about the European Parliament elections, the key trends and factors influencing voters, and what the results are likely to be. 

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a closing speech during Portugal’s Democratic Alliance (AD) party’s campaign rally for the European elections in Porto on June 6, 2024

ROME, ITALY – JUNE 06, 2024: The President of the Italian Council of Ministers Giorgia Meloni during the Rai television program ‘Porta a Porta’

The political sentiments in France and Germany, the EU’s two largest and most powerful members, are likely to tend towards more right-wing, conservative candidates, with the parties of Emmanuel Macron (L) and Olaf Scholz (R) set to lose out

(From L) Lead candidates for the presidency of the European Commission, German Ursula von der Leyen of the European People’s Party (EPP), Luxembourgish Nicolas Schmit of Party of European Socialists, German Terry Reintke of GreensEuropean Free Alliance, Italian Sandro Gozi of the group Renew and Austrian Walter Baier of Party of the European Left take part in a debate at the European Parliament in Brussels, on May 23, 2024

Anti-Islam lawmaker Geert Wilders of the PVV, or Party for Freedom, casts his ballot for the European election in The Hague, Netherlands, Thursday, June 6, 2024

Flags of the European Union on June 6, 2024 in The Hague, Netherlands. Voters in 27 European Union countries go to the polls this weekend to elect members of European Parliament

How do the elections work and why are they important?  

This week’s elections will see 720 members of the European Parliament (MEPs), coming from beyond the Arctic Circle to the edges of Africa and Asia, elected to five-year terms. 

These candidates belong to national parties, many of which are affiliated with larger European political groups that form alliances according to their policies and values. 

The number of members elected in each country depends on the size of the population, ranging from six for Malta, Luxembourg and Cyprus to 96 for Germany.

In 2019, Europeans elected 751 lawmakers. Following the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU in 2020, the number of MEPs fell to 705, though some of the 73 seats previously held by British MEPs were redistributed to other member states.

Unlike national parliaments, the European Parliament does not have the right to propose laws – it can only negotiate those proposed by the executive European Commission. 

But the lawmakers can vote on a wide range of legislation covering banking rules, climate, agriculture, fisheries, security and justice. 

They also vote on the EU budget, which is crucial to the implementation of European policies, including, for instance, the aid delivered to Ukraine.

The first votes were cast in the Netherlands yesterday, with Ireland and the Czech Republic heading to the ballot box today and the rest of Europe set to follow over the weekend. 

Europe-wide results will be announced Sunday night or early Monday morning after all member states have completed voting.

After the election, MEPs will elect their president at the first plenary session, from July 16-19. 

Then, most likely in September, they will nominate the president of the European Commission, following a proposal made by the member states. 

In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen narrowly won a vote to become the first woman to head the institution. She is seeking a second term.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party is expected to consolidate its power

Right-wing populism on the rise

Britain’s fervent attempt to leave the Union dominated the headlines at the last EU elections in 2019, but five years later, a slew of issues are at hand.

Besides the war in Ukraine, voters across Europe have contended with the spiralling cost of living and energy prices, illegal migration, the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the forced march towards ‘net zero’ – issues that far-right and populist parties have used to cultivate significant support.

The political sentiments in France and Germany, the EU’s two largest and most powerful members, attest to this. 

The centrist Renaissance party of Emmanuel Macron – whose political rhetoric has revolved around building a stronger Europe, supporting Ukraine and standing up to Vladimir Putin – is set to come a distant second in this week’s elections to the far-right National Rally (RN), which is forecast to scoop almost a third of the vote. 

In Germany meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has gained considerable popularity in recent years and is locked in a tight race for second place with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats.

The AfD is also set to capitalise after one of its members was stabbed in Mannheim earlier this week as he tried to prevent someone from tearing down an election poster – an incident which came just days after an Afghan knifeman killed a police officer and stabbed four other people in the same city.  

Elsewhere, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party looks set to consolidate its power, while exit polls in the Netherlands suggest that far-right outfit Party for Freedom has made big gains and is in a tight race with an alliance of social democrats and greens to emerge as the biggest Dutch party.

In Ireland, with around 20 per cent of the population born outside the country and record levels of asylum seekers, anti-migrant sentiment has escalated, prompting a sharp decline in support for the leftist-nationalist Sinn Fein whose progressive and pro-migration stances appear at odds with many of its core working-class voters.

And the likes of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party and Austria’s Freedom party – both far-right outfits – are on track to emerge victorious in their respective nations. 

Migration is a major topic of contention in this year’s elections

Honorary chairman of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party Alexander Gauland takes his seat at the beginning of a session at the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, where the German Chancellor held a keynote speech on security in Germany on June 6, 2024 in Berlin

A France’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party volunteer pastes a campaign poster of party President and lead European Parliament election candidate Jordan Bardella in Lyon on May 6, 2024, ahead of the June 9 European Parliament election

Mainstream parties should still maintain majority amid right-wing divisions

The rise of the far-right is not expected to overwhelm the EU, in part because of the inherent divisions between the major players. 

Several of the main right and far-right parties in Europe are split among different political groups and in many cases have sought to distance themselves from one another.

For example, Germany’s AfD was until recently part of Europe’s Identity and Democracy (ID) group, the largest conglomerate of far-right elements including France’s RN, Italy’s Lega, Austria’s Freedom party and the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom.

But it was recently expelled at the request of the RN after leading candidate Maximilian Krah became embroiled in a series of scandals – including one incident in which he suggested not all members of the Nazi SS should have been viewed as war criminals. 

Meanwhile, Meloni’s Brother of Italy party has refused to ally with the RN, and has instead partnered with right-wing movements from Poland, Sweden and Belgium as part of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group. 

Amid such infighting, POLITICO polls predict that far-right candidates will enjoy a significant boost in this week’s election but will not overcome the majority of pro-EU mainstream parties – the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats.

The far-right will however wield considerable power in the European Parliament to influence policy decisions, pushing for tougher border controls and migration regulations, rolling back restrictive and costly environmental policies, and focusing on strengthening the economy of Europe.