Voters in Finland will choose a president to shape a new NATO era

The Finns will elect a new president on Sunday in the first national elections since the country joined NATO. In doing so, they will choose a leader who will be crucial in shaping the country's role in the alliance at a time of increasingly fraught relations with Russia.

The elections will generally receive little attention outside the borders of the sparsely populated Northern European country with 5.6 million inhabitants. But Finland, NATO's newest member, shares the longest border with Russia – some 800 miles – and its politics have taken particular interest among its European and American allies as the geopolitical order shifts.

American power is being challenged by Moscow and Beijing, and Europe is grappling with the largest land war since World War II. At the same time, the American commitment to helping Ukraine appears increasingly questionable and unpredictable American presidential elections are looming.

The Finnish president is responsible for foreign policy, and whoever wins will bear the main responsibility for guiding the country through a changing world.

“The future president will have an impact on what kind of NATO country Finland will be in the future,” said Jenni Karimaki, a political analyst at the University of Helsinki. “NATO membership is one of the things that is generating interest in these elections – and of course in the general political situation in the world.”

Finland's decision to join NATO was a sharp break from decades of it The lack of connection and the risks and responsibilities of the country's new place in the world dominated the campaign over who should succeed the popular Sauli Niinisto, whose second six-year term ends in March.

The two candidates who reached the second round on Sunday – Alexander Stubb of the centre-right National Coalition Party, and Pekka Haavisto of the centre-left Green League – have both strongly supported the decision to join NATO and taken a tough approach. line view of Russia. The differences between them have been mainly stylistic.

Mr Stubb, a former prime minister who had the most votes in the first round, has had his security credentials tested.

“I'm as aggressive as the best of them, there's no doubt about that,” he told The New York Times.

He said countering Russia has become more difficult in an era of hybrid warfare. There has been an increase in cyber attacks, with some Russian hackers claiming responsibility.

One of the most worrying issues for voters is a sudden spike in the number of asylum seekers entering Finland through the Russian border, which many in Finland see as a signal from Russia in response to NATO membership. Moscow had warned that there would be “countermeasures” if Finland joined NATO.

“The line between war and peace has become blurred,” Mr Stubb said. “Russians are very good at hybrid warfare.” He added: “They will do everything they can to intimidate or destabilize Finland and especially public opinion. But so far they have completely failed.”

Mr Haavisto, who served as foreign minister from 2019 to 2023, has used his credentials as one of the key negotiators for Finland's accession to NATO to show that his stance on Russia is equally tough. But he has also shown wariness of the most aggressive positions. His identity has been shaped over the years as a peace negotiator for the United Nations, Finland and the European Union.

The difference in the two candidates' approaches became memorably clear during one of the debates. Asked whether they would heed a congratulatory call from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia if they won the election, the two parted ways: Mr. Stubb said he would not. But Mr. Haavisto said he would.

There are only a few other positions that really differentiate the candidates, such as their position on nuclear weapons. Mr Stubb has said he would be willing to allow the alliance to carry nuclear weapons into Finnish territory, while Mr Haavisto said he would not.

However, the question remains hypothetical, as current Finnish law prohibits nuclear weapons on Finnish territory and the president cannot make laws.

Mr. Haavisto has traveled around the country holding listening sessions at gas stations, a common meeting place in smaller towns in rural Finland.

He has also organized several campaign events that he DJed himself under his nickname DJ Pexi, playing everything from the Beatles to Belgian punk. One of his last campaign events was a concert in which several famous Finnish musicians played.

“Voting for Pekka Haavisto is important to me because I want to preserve the last bit of peace in an increasingly belligerent world,” said Eino Nurmisto, a social media influencer who attended the concert.

An avid athlete, Mr Stubb started the second round of his campaign with a walk through central Helsinki, and has organized cross-country skiing campaign events. He also opened a series of cafes across the country, where voters could stop by and escape the frigid temperatures with coffee, sweets and campaign supplies.

“We are living in a time that will be very important for the future of Finland,” said Claes-Henrik Taucher, as he warmed up in a Helsinki cafe with a cup of coffee.

Beyond Russia, there is another concern on the other side of the Atlantic: what awaits Finland's NATO membership if Donald J. Trump, an outspoken critic of the alliance who has even suggested that the United States leave the alliance , would win the presidential elections in November?

“The whole decision to join NATO was based on the idea that the US, the Americans, will stay here and that the US involvement will be long-term,” said Matti Pesu of the Finnish Institute for International Affairs. “If the US were to decide to weaken its commitment, it would be a huge irony and would weaken the deterrent value of Finland's NATO membership.”