UN experts say Gaza is on the brink of famine. What does that mean?

The relief effort that ended in bloodshed this week showed the extent of Gazans’ desperation, with dozens killed after many thousands gathered in a rare convoy of aid trucks. As aid deliveries to Gaza have fallen rapidly and Palestinians struggle to find food, humanitarians and United Nations officials warn that famine is looming in the enclave.

For aid groups and the UN, officially determining that there is a famine is a technical process. It requires expert analysis, and only government agencies and top UN officials can make a statement on this.

How is famine defined, and what do experts say about the severity of hunger in Gaza? Here’s a closer look.

What is a famine?

Food insecurity experts are working on the Integrated phase classification of food securityor IPC, an initiative overseen by UN bodies and major aid agencies, identifies a famine in an area based on three conditions:

• At least 20 percent of households suffer from an extreme lack of food.

• At least 30 percent of children suffer from acute malnutrition.

• For every 10,000 people, at least two adults or four children die every day from hunger or diseases related to malnutrition.

Since the IPC was developed in 2004, it has been used to identify only two famines: in Somalia in 2011 and in South Sudan in 2017. In Somalia, more than 100,000 people died before the famine was officially declared.

IPC analysts expressed serious concerns about food insecurity in Yemen and Ethiopia, related to the civil wars in those countries, but said there was not enough information available from governments to make a formal assessment.

The classifications of famine in Somalia and South Sudan stimulated global action and led to large donations. Aid workers and hunger experts point out that the hunger crisis in Gaza is already dire, with or without a famine classification, and that aid is needed quickly.

“What’s important to me is to basically say, look: technically we haven’t met the conditions for a famine, and frankly we don’t want to meet those conditions,” said Arif Husain, the chief economist at the World Foods. Program. “So please help, and please help now.”

What is the situation in Gaza?

Palestinians, especially in the north, are fighting famine and regularly gather in the relatively few aid trucks that enter the area. Aid agencies say people are so hungry they are starving resort to food leaves, donkey food and food scraps.

The first IPC report on Gaza, published in December, found that the enclave’s entire population faced food insecurity at crisis levels or worse. While the group said Gaza has not yet crossed the famine threshold, it warned that the risk of starvation levels would increase if the war did not stop.

A second food safety analysis is now underway, the IPC group said.

What are the complications?

The December IPC analysis was based on publicly available data from international and local aid groups in Gaza that the group said met methodological standards. But IPC analysts said they had no recent data on the prevalence of acute malnutrition. Obtaining that data is very difficult in a war zone and places a burden on already overwhelmed health care workers, the group added.

The organization’s criteria were originally intended to address weather-related famines, not crises like the one in Gaza, Mr. Husain said. But the worst hunger crises in recent history have been caused by conflict rather than climate, he noted.

And while IPC experts conduct the analysis that can classify a famine, it is up to government authorities and the United Nations to formally declare a famine.

In some cases, countries have hesitated to do this. In 2022, Somalia’s president expressed reluctance to declare a famine during a severe hunger crisis due to drought. And in 2021, Ethiopia blocked the declaration of famine in the Tigray region through heavy lobbying. said a top UN official.

It is unclear exactly which authority could declare a famine in Gaza. The IPC group said this process typically involves a country’s government and the top UN official. Determining who that authority would be in Gaza was beyond the organization’s scope, the organization said.

Stephanie Nolen reporting contributed.