Germany is preparing for decades of confrontation with Russia
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has begun warning Germans to prepare for a decades-long confrontation with Russia — and to quickly rebuild the country's military in case Vladimir V. Putin doesn't plan to stop at the border with Ukraine.
The Russian military, he said in a series of recent interviews with German news media, is fully engaged in Ukraine. But if there is a ceasefire and Russian President Putin still has a few years to reset, he believes the Russian leader will consider testing NATO's unity.
“Nobody knows how or if this will last,” Mr. Pistorius said of the current war, calling for a rapid build-up of the size of Germany's army and replenishing its arsenal.
Mr Pistorius' public warnings reflect a significant shift at the highest levels of leadership in a country that has eschewed a strong military since the end of the Cold War. The alarm is growing louder, but the German public is still not convinced that the security of Germany and Europe is fundamentally threatened by a newly aggressive Russia.
The post of Minister of Defense in Germany is often a political dead end. But Pistorius' status as one of the country's most popular politicians has given him a freedom of speech that others — including his boss, Chancellor Olaf Scholz — do not enjoy.
As Mr. Scholz prepares to meet President Biden at the White House on Friday, many in the German government say there is no question of a return to normal with Mr. Putin's Russia, that they expect little progress in Ukraine for years and that they fear the consequences if Mr Putin gains the upper hand there.
Those fears are now mixed with discussions about what will happen to NATO if former President Donald J. Trump is elected and given a second chance to act on his instincts to pull the United States from the alliance.
The prospect of a re-elected Mr. Trump has German officials and many of their fellow NATO colleagues informally discussing whether the nearly 75-year-old alliance structure they plan to celebrate in Washington this year can survive without the United States at the center. . Many German officials say Putin's best strategic hope is to break NATO.
It is an astonishing change of thinking, especially for the Germans. Just a year ago, NATO was celebrating a new sense of purpose and unity, and many confidently predicted that Mr Putin was on the run.
But now, with an unreliable America, an aggressive Russia and an aspiring China, as well as a seemingly stalled war in Ukraine and a deeply unpopular conflict in Gaza, German officials are starting to talk about the emergence of a new, complicated and disturbing world. , with serious consequences for European and transatlantic security.
Their immediate concern is growing pessimism that the United States will continue to fund Ukraine's struggle, just as Germany, the second-largest contributor, has pledged to double its contribution this year to about $8.5 billion.
Now some of Mr Pistorius's colleagues are warning that if US funding dries up and Russia gains the upper hand, the next target will be closer to Berlin.
“If Ukraine were forced to surrender, it would not satisfy Russia's thirst for power,” German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl said last week. “If the West does not show a clear willingness to defend, Putin will have no reason to stop attacking NATO.”
But when pressed about a possible conflict with Russia, or about the future of NATO, German politicians speak cautiously.
In the decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union, most Germans have become accustomed to the idea that the country's security would be assured if it worked with Russia, not against it, and that China is a necessary partner with a crucial market for German cars and equipment. .
Even today, Mr. Scholz, a Social Democrat whose party has traditionally sought decent ties with Moscow, appears reluctant to discuss the much more confrontational future with Russia or China that Germany's defense and intelligence chiefs describe so vividly.
With the exception of Mr. Pistorius, who was little known before he was picked to lead the Defense Ministry a year ago, few politicians will raise the issue publicly. Mr. Scholz is extremely cautious, mindful of Germany's relationship with the United States and wary of putting too much pressure on Russia and its unpredictable president.
Two years ago, he proclaimed a new era for Germany – a “Zeitenwende,” or historic turning point in German security policy, an era he said would be marked by a significant shift in spending and strategic thinking. He made good on his promise to allocate an additional 100 billion euros for military spending over four years.
This year, for the first time, Germany will spend 2 percent of its gross domestic product on the military, reaching the target that all NATO countries agreed to in 2014 after Russia's annexation of Crimea, but which most experts now say is too late. is low. . And Germany has committed to strengthening NATO's eastern flank against Russia by pledging to permanently station a brigade in Lithuania by 2027.
But in other ways, Mr. Scholz has proceeded with great caution. He has – along with Mr Biden – resisted setting a timetable for Ukraine's eventual entry into the alliance.
The most striking example of his caution is his continued refusal to supply Ukraine with an air-launched cruise missile called the Taurus.
Last year, Britain and France gave Ukraine their closest equivalent, the Storm Shadow/SCALP, and it has been used to destroy Russian ships in ports in Crimea – and to force Russia to withdraw its fleet. Mr. Biden reluctantly agreed to deliver ATACMS, a similar missile but with a range of about 100 miles, to Ukraine in the fall.
The Taurus has a range of more than 300 miles, meaning Ukraine could use it to invade deep into Russia. And Mr Scholz is not prepared to take that risk – and neither is the country's Bundestag, which voted against a resolution calling for the transfer. Although the decision seems to fit German opinion, Mr Scholz wants to avoid the subject.
But if he remains reluctant to press Putin too hard, it is a warning that Germans share.
Polls show that Germans want to see a more capable German army. But only 38 percent of those surveyed said they wanted their country to be more involved in international crises, the lowest figure since the question was asked in 2017, according to the Körber Foundation, which conducted the survey. Of that group, 76 percent said the involvement should be mainly diplomatic, and 71 percent were against a military leadership role for Germany in Europe.
German military officials recently caused a minor outrage when they suggested that the country must be ready for “kriegstüchtig,” which roughly translates to the ability to fight and win a war.
Norbert Röttgen, an opposition lawmaker and foreign policy expert with the Christian Democrats, said the term was considered “rhetorically exaggerated” and was quickly dropped.
“Scholz always said that 'Ukraine should not lose, but Russia should not win', which indicated that he always thought about a standoff that would lead to a diplomatic process,” Mr. Röttgen said. “He considers Russia more important than all the countries between us and them, and he misses a European feeling and his possible role as European leader.”
Mr. Röttgen and other critics of Mr. Scholz think he is losing a historic opportunity to lead the creation of a European defense capability that is far less dependent on the U.S. military and nuclear deterrent.
But Scholz is clearly most comfortable relying heavily on Washington, and senior German officials say he is particularly distrustful of Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, who has advocated European “strategic autonomy.” Mr Macron has found few followers on the continent.
Even Mr. Scholz's main European defense initiative, a coordinated ground-based air defense against ballistic missiles known as Sky Shield, relies on a mix of American, American-Israeli and German missile systems. That has angered the French, Italians, Spaniards and Poles, who did not join, arguing that an Italo-French system should have been used.
Mr Scholz's ambitions are also hampered by his increasingly weak economy. Last year the economy shrank by 0.3 percent, and roughly the same is expected in 2024. The costs of the war in Ukraine and China's economic problems – which have hit the auto and manufacturing sectors hardest – have exacerbated the problem.
While Mr. Scholz acknowledges that the world has changed, “he is not saying that we should change with it,” said Ulrich Speck, a German analyst.
“He says the world has changed and we will protect you,” Mr Speck said.
But that may require much more military spending – more than 3 percent of Germany's gross domestic product. For now, few in Mr. Scholz's party dare to suggest going that far.
Germans, and even social democrats, “have come to realize that Germany lives in the real world and that hard power matters,” said Charles A. Kupchan, a Europe expert at Georgetown University.
“At the same time,” he said, “there is still the hope that this is all just a bad dream, and that the Germans will wake up and be back in the old world.”