How Trump could lose vital battleground state to Biden – and why it’d be a huge personal blow

Donald Trump could lose Florida Unpleasant Joe Biden during the November presidential elections election As the president narrows the gap, polls suggest.

Although Trump currently leads in his home state, which he won in 2016 and 2020, the margin is slim as surveys show the battleground could be a toss-up.

The state supported Barack Obama twice in 2008 and 2012, but Trump put the matter firmly in the red. Yet recent polls in the Sunshine State show Biden trailing by just four points.

Two separate studies, one from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Mainstreet Research, found that Trump’s lead over Biden has narrowed over the past two months.

Losing Florida would be a personal blow to Trump, who is a full-time Florida resident thanks to his Mar-a-Lago home

The FAU poll puts Trump at 46 percent and Biden at 42 percent, up from Trump’s 50 percent in April.

Losing Florida would be a personal blow to Trump, who is a full-time Florida resident thanks to his Mar-a-Lago home.

Trump won Florida with 51.2 percent of the vote in 2020, but Biden’s improving performance in the polls suggests the race in the state will be a competitive one.

Florida has long been considered a Republican stronghold, with Democrats only winning the state in five presidential elections: 1964, 1976, 1996, 2008 and 2012.

President Joe Biden will speak at an event on reproductive freedom in Tampa, Florida, in April. Biden voiced his administration’s opposition to Florida’s six-week abortion ban

Republicans have consistently won statewide races for governor, Senate and Cabinet, but often by razor’s edge, boosting Democrats’ hopes for the next election cycle only to dash them.

While there are Democratic strongholds in the southeastern part of the state, including the major cities of Miami and Fort Lauderdale, this is not enough to offset Republican gains in other parts of the state, including Broward County and Palm Beach County.

Part of the Republican shift can also be attributed to people living in rural North Florida, holdovers from the Deep South, changing their registration to reflect their voting patterns.

Donald Trump gestures next to his birthday cake, made by Club 47, during a campaign rally as he celebrates his 78th birthday Friday at the West Palm Convention Center, in West Palm Beach

Two recent polls suggest Biden is gaining ground on Trump in the Sunshine State

Many people registered as Democrats because generations before them did so, but the so-called Dixiecrats still voted solidly Republican.

Democrats are particularly concerned about the trend in Miami-Dade County, home to 1.85 million Hispanic voters and a Democratic stronghold for the past two decades, where the Republican Party made significant gains in the last presidential election and could turn red in November .

But Democrats are hoping that a ballot question that appears to protect abortion rights will put the state back in play for them.

Although tThe abortion debate did not stop Republican Governor Ron DeSantis from winning re-election in a landslide in 2022, even after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. By the time the election rolls around, Floridians will have been living with the restrictions for a while. .

DeSantis signed new abortion restrictions banning the procedure after six weeks. Democrats rightly warned that he would further chip away at rights to the procedure.

Pictured: Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm, Beach

But the abortion issue crosses party lines. In a landslide victory for abortion rights supporters, Kansas voters in 2022 rejected a proposed state constitutional amendment that would have stripped residents of abortion rights.

Kentucky voters also rejected a 2022 ballot measure aimed at denying constitutional protections to abortion.

Last year, abortion rights took center stage in key races, including Ohio, where voters overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure that enshrined protections in the state constitution.

The former president is careful not to be too blatant in his views on abortion.

He routinely takes credit for appointing the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, paving the way for a wave of new restrictions.

But Trump has also repeatedly criticized fellow Republicans for being too tough on the issue, blaming candidates who oppose exceptions — in cases of rape, incest and when the mother’s life is in danger — for the midterm lose the party in 2022.