ICC World Cup 2023: Who will be the 4th team in the semi-finals? – Scenarios EXPLAINED
With just one match remaining in the competitive phase of the 2023 ICC World Cup, the battle for the sole spot in the semi-finals is heating up.
New Delhi: Battling pain and exhaustion, Glenn Maxwell conjured up perhaps the biggest knock (201 not out off 128 balls) in the history of limited-overs cricket to propel Australia to a sensational three-wicket win over Afghanistan in the World Cup in Mumbai on Tuesday.
This made Australia the third team to reach the semi-finals. The other two teams are India and South Africa. The Men in Blue will obviously finish top of the table with a match in hand.
Now, after Australia’s emphatic victory, there is only one spot left for the semi-finals. There are three contenders in Pakistan, New Zealand and Afghanistan, all of whom have equal chances to play the Final 4, which starts on November 15. All teams are locked on 8 points and there is only one match left to make the most of it. Currently, New Zealand is ranked 4th with +0.398 net run-rate, followed by Pakistan at 5th with +0.036 NRR and Afghanistan at 6th with a net run-rate of -0.338.
SCENARIOS FOR QUALIFICATION (NZ):-
1) If New Zealand were to beat Sri Lanka in their final match, one would expect Pakistan and Afghanistan to lose to England and South Africa respectively to qualify for the semi-finals.
2) If New Zealand beats Sri Lanka and Pakistan loses to England and Afghanistan wins against South Africa, make sure Afghanistan’s NRR does not rise above New Zealand.
3) If New Zealand beats Sri Lanka and Afghanistan loses to South Africa and Pakistan wins against England, make sure Pakistan’s NRR does not rise above New Zealand.
SCENARIOS FOR QUALIFICATION (PAK):-
1) If Pakistan were to beat England in their final match, one would expect New Zealand and Afghanistan to lose to Sri Lanka and South Africa respectively to qualify for the semi-finals.
2) If Pakistan beats England and New Zealand loses to Sri Lanka and Afghanistan wins against South Africa, make sure Afghanistan’s NRR does not rise above Pakistan.
3) If Pakistan beats England and Afghanistan loses to South Africa and New Zealand wins against England, then Pakistan’s NRR must be higher than New Zealand’s.
If Pakistan qualify as the fourth-seeded team, they will face arch-rivals India in the semi-final at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata.
SCENARIOS FOR QUALIFICATION (AFG):-
1) If Afghanistan were to beat South Africa in their final match, you would expect New Zealand and Pakistan to lose to Sri Lanka and England respectively to qualify for the semi-finals.
2) If Afghanistan beats South Africa and New Zealand loses to Sri Lanka and Pakistan wins against England, ensure that Afghanistan’s NRR does not fall lower than Pakistan’s.
3) If Afghanistan beats South Africa and Pakistan loses to England and New Zealand wins against Sri Lanka, then Afghanistan should have a higher NNR than New Zealand.
If all three contenders lose or win their respective matches, the team with the highest NRR qualifies as the fourth-placed team.